Halvard Buhaug

Research Director

Halvard Buhaug
Additional position(s):
Research Professor, PRIO and Professor of Political Science, NTNU

Email: halvard@prio.org
Twitter: @buhaug

Background

Halvard Buhaug is Research Director and Research Professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO); Professor of Political Science at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU); and Associate Editor of Journal of Peace Research. Much of his research concerns security dimensions of climate change, which has received funding from the European Union, the World Bank, the US Department of Defense, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, and the Research Council of Norway. Recent publications include journal articles in, inter alia, Global Environmental Change, Journal of Politics, Nature, and PNAS. He is the recipient of the 2015 Karl Deutsch Award; principal investigator for two ERC projects (Consolidator Grant 2015-2021; Advanced Grant 2022-), and chapter Lead Author in the UN IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

A complete list of my publications is accessible through Google Scholar.

Research Groups

Full member:

PRIO Departments

Current
Historical

PRIO Projects

Ongoing:
Finished:

Events

PRIO started tracking events online in 2007. This listing is not complete. Past events may be mentioned in our news archive.

Recent Publications

Hendrix, Cullen; Scott Gates & Halvard Buhaug (2023) Environment and Conflict, in Mason, T. David; & Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, eds, What Do We Know about Civil War. Second Edition. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield (231–248).
Buhaug, Halvard (2023) Context is key: Why moderation is needed at the climate-conflict nexus, 49security, 1 March.
Buhaug, Halvard; Elisabeth Gilmore; Tor A. Benjaminsen & Cullen Hendrix (2023) Climate-driven risks to peace over the 21st century, Climate Risk Management 39(100471).
Buhaug, Halvard (2022) Armed conflict and climate change: How these two threats play out in Africa, The Conversation, 7 November.

All Publications

Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Buhaug, Halvard; Elisabeth Gilmore; Tor A. Benjaminsen & Cullen Hendrix (2023) Climate-driven risks to peace over the 21st century, Climate Risk Management 39(100471).
Thomson, Henry; Karim Bahgat; Henrik Urdal & Halvard Buhaug (2022) Urban Social Disorder 3.0: A global, city-level event dataset of political mobilization and disorder, Journal of Peace Research. DOI: 10.1177/00223433221082991.
de Bruin, Sophie P.; Jannis M. Hoch; Nina von Uexkull; Halvard Buhaug; Jolle Demmers; Hans Visser & Niko Wanders (2022) Projecting long-term armed conflict risk: An underappreciated field of inquiry?, Global Environmental Change 72: 102423–.
Hoch, Jannis M.; Sophie P. de Bruin; Halvard Buhaug; Nina von Uexkull; Rens van Beek & Niko Wanders (2021) Projecting armed conflict risk in Africa towards 2050 along the SSP-RCP scenarios: a machine learning approach, Environmental Research Letters 16(12): 124068–.
Buhaug, Halvard; Mihai Croicu; Hanne Fjelde & Nina von Uexkull (2021) A Conditional Model of Local Income Shock and Civil Conflict, Journal of Politics 83(1): 354–366.
Vestby, Jonas; Halvard Buhaug & Nina von Uexkull (2021) Why do some poor countries see armed conflict while others do not? A dual sector approach, World Development 138: 105273–.
Buhaug, Halvard & Nina von Uexkull (2021) Vicious circles: Violence, vulnerability, and climate change, Annual Review of Environment and Resources 46: 545–568.
Thomson, Henry; Halvard Buhaug; Henrik Urdal & Elisabeth Lio Rosvold (2021) Group organization, elections and urban political mobilization in the developing world, Democratization. DOI: 10.1080/13510347.2021.1944117.
Gilmore, Elisabeth & Halvard Buhaug (2021) Climate mitigation policies and the potential pathways to conflict: Outlining a research agenda, WIREs Climate Change. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.722.
Schutte, Sebastian; Jonas Vestby; Jørgen Carling & Halvard Buhaug (2021) Climatic conditions are weak predictors of asylum migration, Nature Communications 12: 2067–.
Rosvold, Elisabeth Lio & Halvard Buhaug (2021) GDIS, a global dataset of geocoded disaster locations, Scientific Data 8(61): 1–7.
von Uexkull, Nina & Halvard Buhaug (2021) Security implications of climate change: A decade of scientific progress, Journal of Peace Research 58(1): 3–17.
Bakken, Ingrid Vik & Halvard Buhaug (2021) Civil War and Female Empowerment, Journal of Conflict Resolution 65(5): 982–1009.
Rustad, Siri Aas; Elisabeth Lio Rosvold & Halvard Buhaug (2020) Development Aid, Drought, and Coping Capacity, Journal of Development Studies 56(8): 1578–1593.
Mach, Katharine J.; W. Neil Adger; Halvard Buhaug; Marshall Burke; James Fearon; Christopher B. Field; Cullen Hendrix; Caroline M. Kraan; Jeac-Francois Maystadt; John O'Loughlin; Philip Roessler; Jürgen Scheffran; Kenneth Schultz & Nina von Uexkull (2020) Directions for Research on Climate and Conflict, Earth's Future. DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001532.
Bergius, Mikael; Tor Arve Benjaminsen; Faustin P. Maganga & Halvard Buhaug (2020) Green economy, degradation narratives, and land-use conflicts in Tanzania, World Development 129: 104850–.
Buhaug, Halvard & Jonas Vestby (2019) On Growth Projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Global Environmental Politics 19(4): 118–132.
Mach, Katharine J.; Caroline M. Kraan; W. Neil Adger; Halvard Buhaug; Marshall Burke; James Fearon; Christopher B. Field; Cullen Hendrix; Jeac-Francois Maystadt; John O'Loughlin; Philip Roessler; Jürgen Scheffran; Kenneth Schultz & Nina von Uexkull (2019) Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict, Nature 571: 193–197.
Gilmore, Elisabeth; Lauren Herzer Risi; Elizabeth Tennant & Halvard Buhaug (2018) Bridging Research and Policy on Climate Change and Conflict, Current Climate Change Report 4(4): 313–319.
Buhaug, Halvard (2016) Climate Change and Conflict: Taking Stock, Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy 22(4): 331–338.
von Uexkull, Nina; Mihai Croicu; Hanne Fjelde & Halvard Buhaug (2016) Civil conflict sensitivity to growing season drought, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 113(44): 12391–12396.
Hegre, Håvard; Halvard Buhaug; Katherine V. Calvin; Jonas Nordkvelle; Stephanie T. Waldhoff & Elisabeth Gilmore (2016) Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways, Environmental Research Letters 11(5): 054002.
Buhaug, Halvard; Lars-Erik Cederman & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch (2016) Ulikhet, eksklusjon og borgerkrig [Inequality, Exclusion, and Civil War], Politica 48(1): 12–29.
Buhaug, Halvard; Tor Arve Benjaminsen; Espen Sjaastad & Ole Magnus Theisen (2015) Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa, Environmental Research Letters 10(12): 125015–.
Buhaug, Halvard (2015) Climate–conflict research: some reflections on the way forward, WIREs Climate Change 6(3): 269–275.
Tollefsen, Andreas Forø & Halvard Buhaug (2015) Insurgency and Inaccessibility, International Studies Review 17(1): 6–25.
Linke, Andrew; Sebastian Schutte & Halvard Buhaug (2015) Population Attitudes and the Spread of Political Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa, International Studies Review 17(1): 26–45.
Wischnath, Gerdis & Halvard Buhaug (2014) Rice or riots: On food production and conflict severity across India, Political Geography 43: 6–15.
Buhaug, Halvard; Jonas Nordkvelle; Thomas Bernauer; Tobias Böhmelt; Michael Brzoska; Joshua W. Busby; Antonio Ciccone; Hanne Fjelde; Erik Gartzke; Nils Petter Gleditsch; Jack A. Goldstone; Håvard Hegre; Helge Holtermann; Vally Koubi; Jasmin S. A. Link; Peter Michael Link; Päivi Lujala; John O'Loughlin; Clionadh Raleigh; Jürgen Scheffran; Janpeter Schilling; Todd G. Smith; Ole Magnus Theisen; Richard S. J. Tol; Henrik Urdal & Nina von Uexkull (2014) One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict, Climatic Change 127(3): 391–397.
Buhaug, Halvard; Lars-Erik Cederman & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch (2014) Square Pegs in Round Holes: Inequalities, Grievances, and Civil War, International Studies Quarterly 58(2): 418–431.
Böhmelt, Tobias; Thomas Bernauer; Halvard Buhaug; Nils Petter Gleditsch; Theresa Tribaldos & Gerdis Wischnath (2014) Demand, Supply, and Restraint: Determinants of Domestic Water Conflict and Cooperation, Global Environmental Change 29: 337–348.
Wischnath, Gerdis & Halvard Buhaug (2014) On Climate Variability and Civil War in Asia, Climatic Change 122(4): 709–721.
Buhaug, Halvard (2014) Concealing Agreements over Climate-Conflict Results, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111(6).
Theisen, Ole Magnus; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Halvard Buhaug (2013) Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?, Climatic Change 117(3): 613–625.
Buhaug, Halvard & Henrik Urdal (2013) An urbanization bomb? Population growth and social disorder in cities, Global Environmental Change 23(1): 1–10.
Bernauer, Thomas; Tobias Böhmelt; Halvard Buhaug; Nils Petter Gleditsch; Theresa Tribaldos; Eivind Berg Weibust & Gerdis Wischnath (2012) Water-Related Intrastate Conflict and Cooperation (WARICC): A New Event Dataset, International Interactions 38(4): 529–545.
Benjaminsen, Tor Arve; Koffi Alinon; Halvard Buhaug & Jill Tove Buseth (2012) Does Climate Change Drive Land-Use Conflicts in the Sahel?, Journal of Peace Research 49(1): 97–111.
Tollefsen, Andreas Forø; Håvard Strand & Halvard Buhaug (2012) PRIO-GRID: A Unified Spatial Data Structure, Journal of Peace Research 49(2): 363–374.
Theisen, Ole Magnus; Helge Holtermann & Halvard Buhaug (2012) Climate Wars? Assessing the Claim that Drought Breeds Conflict, International Security 36(3): 79–106.
Dyrstad, Karin; Halvard Buhaug; Kristen Ringdal; Albert Simkus & Ola Listhaug (2011) Microfoundations of Civil Conflict Reconciliation: Ethnicity and Context, International Interactions 37(4): 363–387.
Buhaug, Halvard; Kristian Skrede Gleditsch; Helge Holtermann; Gudrun Østby & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2011) It’s the Local Economy, Stupid! Geographic Wealth Dispersion and Conflict Outbreak Location, Journal of Conflict Resolution 55(5): 814–840.
Rustad, Siri Aas; Halvard Buhaug; Åshild Falch & Scott Gates (2011) All Conflict Is Local: Modeling Sub-National Variation in Civil Conflict Risk, Conflict Management and Peace Science 28(1): 15–40.
Urdal, Henrik; Ole Magnus Theisen; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Halvard Buhaug (2010) Klimakriger? En vurdering av det faglige grunnlaget [Climate Wars? An Assessment of the Scientific Foundation], Norsk Statsvitenskapelig Tidsskrift 26(4): 297–320.
Buhaug, Halvard (2010) Climate Not to Blame for African Civil Wars, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 107(38): 16477–16482.
Buhaug, Halvard (2010) Dude, Where's My Conflict? LSG, Relative Strength, and the Location of Civil War, Conflict Management and Peace Science 27(2): 107–128.
Buhaug, Halvard; Scott Gates & Päivi Lujala (2009) Geography, Rebel Capability, and the Duration of Civil Conflict, Journal of Conflict Resolution 53(4): 544–569.
Cederman, Lars-Erik; Halvard Buhaug & Jan Ketil Rød (2009) Ethno-Nationalist Dyads and Civil War: A GIS-Based Analysis, Journal of Conflict Resolution 53(4): 496–525.
Buhaug, Halvard & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch (2008) Contagion or Confusion? Why Conflicts Cluster in Space, International Studies Quarterly 52(2): 215–233.
Buhaug, Halvard; Lars-Erik Cederman & Jan Ketil Rød (2008) Disaggregating Ethno-Nationalist Civil Wars: A Dyadic Test of Exclusion Theory, International Organization 62(3): 531–551.
Buhaug, Halvard (2006) Relative Capability and Rebel Objective in Civil War, Journal of Peace Research 43(6): 691–708.
Buhaug, Halvard; & Jan Ketil Rød (2006) Local Determinants of African Civil Wars, 1970-2001, Political Geography 25(3): 315–335.
Buhaug, Halvard; & Päivi Lujala (2005) Accounting for Scale: Measuring Geography in Quantitative Studies of Civil War, Political Geography 24(4): 399–418.
Buhaug, Halvard (2005) Dangerous Dyads Revisited: Democracies May Not Be that Peaceful after All, Conflict Management and Peace Science 22(2): 95–111.
Buhaug, Halvard & Scott Gates (2002) The Geography of Civil War, Journal of Peace Research 39(4): 417–433.

PhD Thesis

Buhaug, Halvard (2005) The Geography of Armed Civil Conflict. PhD thesis, Department of Political Sceince, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim.

Monograph

Cederman, Lars-Erik; Kristian Skrede Gleditsch & Halvard Buhaug (2013) Inequality, Grievances, and Civil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Cambridge Studies in Contentious Politics.

Book Chapter

Hendrix, Cullen; Scott Gates & Halvard Buhaug (2023) Environment and Conflict, in Mason, T. David; & Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, eds, What Do We Know about Civil War. Second Edition. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield (231–248).
O'Neill, Brian; Maarten van Aalst; Zelina Zaiton Ibrahim; Lea Berrang Ford; Suruchi Bhadwal; Halvard Buhaug; Delavane Diaz; Katja Frieler; Matthias Garschagen; Alexandre Magnan; Guy Midgley; Alisher Mirzabaev; Adelle Thomas & Rachel Warren (2022) Key Risks Across Sectors and Regions, in Pörtner, H.-O.; D. C. Roberts; M. Tignor; E. S. Poloczanska; K. Mintenbeck; A. Alegría; M. Craig; S. Langsdorf; S. Löschke; V. Möller; A. Okem; & B. Rama, eds, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (2411–2538).
Vesco, Paola & Halvard Buhaug (2020) Climate and conflict, in Hampson, Fen Osler; Alpaslan Özerdem; & Jonathan Kent, eds, Routledge Handbook of Peace, Security and Development. New York: Routledge (105–120).
Strand, Håvard & Halvard Buhaug (2018) Tracing Armed Conflict over Time: A Reversal of the Recent Decline?, in Backer, David; Ravinder Bhavnani; & Paul Huth, eds, Peace and Conflict 2017. New York: Routledge (16–22).
Buhaug, Halvard (2017) Food insecurity and political instability, in Dahlhaus, Nora; & Daniela Weißkopf, eds, Future Scenarios of Global Cooperation – Practices and Challenges. Duisburg: Centre for Global Cooperation Research (105–112).
Theisen, Ole Magnus; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Halvard Buhaug (2017) Climate Change and Armed Conflict: Reviewing the Evidence, in Stohl, Michael; Mark I. Lichbach; & Peter Nils Grabosky, eds, States and Peoples in Conflict. New York: Routledge (113–129).
Hendrix, Cullen; Scott Gates & Halvard Buhaug (2016) Environment and Conflict, in Mason, T. David; & Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, eds, What Do We Know About Civil Wars?. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield (231–246).
Strand, Håvard & Halvard Buhaug (2016) Armed Conflict, 1946–2014, in Backer, David; Ravinder Bhavnani; & Paul Huth, eds, Peace and Conflict 2016. New York: Routledge (19–24).
Buhaug, Halvard & Hanne Seter (2014) Environmental Change and Armed Conflict, in Routledge Handbook of Civil Wars. New York: Routledge (197–210).
Buhaug, Halvard; Henrik Urdal & Gudrun Østby (2013) Sustainable Cities: Urbanization and Human Security, in Sygna, Linda; Karen O'Brien; & Johanna Wolf, eds, A Changing Environment for Human Security - Transformative approaches to research, policy and action. London: Routledge (56–66).
Buhaug, Halvard; & Theisen, Ole Magnus(2012) On Environmental Change and armed Conflict Climate Change, Human Security and Violent Conflict. Challenges For Societal Stability. : J. Scheffran, M. Brozka, H.G. Brauch, P.M Link, and J. Schilling(43–56).
Theisen, Ole Magnus;Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede; & Buhaug, Halvard(2012) Climate Change and Armed Conflict, in Brown, Graham K.; & Langer, Arnim, eds, Elgar Handbook of Civil War and Fragile States. : Edward Elgar Publishing(125–138).
Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Halvard Buhaug (2011) Årsaker til krig [Causes of War], in Hovi, Jon; & Raino Malnes, eds, Anarki, makt og normer: Innføring i internasjonal politikk. Oslo: Abstrakt forlag (167–190).
Buhaug, Halvard; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Ole Magnus Theisen (2010) Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict, in Mearns, Robin; & Andrew Norton, eds, The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Equity and Vulnerability in a Warming World. Washington: World Bank (75–101).
Buhaug, Halvard (2008) Dangerous Dyads Revisited: Democracies May Not Be That Peaceful after All, in Glenn Palmer, ed., Causes and Consequences of International Conflict: Data, Methods and Theory. London: Routledge (122–144).
Buhaug, Halvard & Nils Petter Gleditsch (2006) The Death of Distance? The Globalization of Armed Conflict, in Kahler, Miles; & Barbara Walter, eds, Territoriality and Conflict in an Era of Globalization. New York: Cambridge University Press (187–216).

Non-refereed Journal Article

Benjaminsen, Tor Arve; Halvard Buhaug; Kevin Grove; Fiona McConnell & Philip E. Steinberg (2018) Political geography in the impasse, Political Geography 62: 1–2.
Benjaminsen, Tor Arve; Halvard Buhaug; Fiona McConnell; Jo Sharp & Philip E. Steinberg (2017) Political Geography and the Environment, Political Geography 56: 1–2.
Buhaug, Halvard; Fiona McConnell; Jo Sharp; James D. Sidaway & Philip E. Steinberg (2016) Changes at Political Geography, Political Geography 50: A1–A2.
Buhaug, Halvard; Henrik Urdal & Jack S. Levy (2014) 50 Years of Peace Research: An Introduction to the Journal of Peace Research Anniversary Special Issue, Journal of Peace Research 51(2): 139–144.
Buhaug, Halvard (2010) Reply to Burke et al.: Bias and Climate War Research, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA 107(51): 186–187.
Buhaug, Halvard (2010) Usikker sammenheng mellom klima og konflikt [Uncertain connection between climate and conflict], Klima 2010(6): 24–26.
Buhaug, Halvard; Scott Gates; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2009) Nils Petter Gleditsch: A Lifetime Achiever, European Political Science 8(1): 79–89.
Buhaug, Halvard (2007) The Future Is More than Scale: A Reply to Diehl and O'Lear, Geopolitics 12(1): 192–199.

Popular Article

Buhaug, Halvard (2023) Context is key: Why moderation is needed at the climate-conflict nexus, 49security, 1 March.
Buhaug, Halvard (2022) Armed conflict and climate change: How these two threats play out in Africa, The Conversation, 7 November.
Benjaminsen, Tor Arve; Halvard Buhaug & Stig Jarle Hansen (2021) De egentlige årsakene til konflikter tåkelegges, Morgenbladet, 7 April.
Buhaug, Halvard & Nina von Uexkull (2021) Climate-conflict research: A decade of scientific progress, New Security Beat, 23 February.
von Uexkull, Nina & Halvard Buhaug (2021) Is climate change driving global conflict?, Political Violence at a Glance, 1 February.
Rudolfsen, Ida & Halvard Buhaug (2020) The World Food Program won the Nobel Peace Prize. Does food aid boost peace?, Washington Post, 13 October.
Buhaug, Halvard (2018) Matpriser og sosial uro [Food prices and social unrest], The Norwegian Atlantic Committee, 23 May.
Vestby, Jonas; Ida Rudolfsen & Halvard Buhaug (2018) Does hunger cause conflict?, PRIO Climate & Conflict Blog, 18 May.
Vestby, Jonas; Ida Rudolfsen & Halvard Buhaug (2018) Fører matmangel til mer krig? [Does food insecurity lead to conflict?], Bistandsaktuelt, 27 April.
Buhaug, Halvard (2017) What do the experts think?, PRIO Climate & Conflict Blog, 15 December.
Buhaug, Halvard (2015) Reflections on Climate-Conflict Research: More Confusion than Knowledge, Carbon Brief, 6 March.
Buhaug, Halvard (2010) Myten om klimakriger [The Climate Wars Myth], Aftenposten, 8 September.
Buhaug, Halvard (2009) Konflikter i bevegelser [Conflicts in Transition], Forsvarets Forum, 1 July.

Conference Paper

Buhaug, Halvard (2013) Attempts to Improve Urban Poor’s Access to Liveable Housing in India, presented at Sixth Beijing Forum on Human Rights, Beijing, China, 12–13 September.
Buhaug, Halvard & Gerdis Wischnath (2013) On climate-conflict dynamics across India, presented at 54th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, San Francisco, CA, 3–6 April.
Wischnath, Gerdis & Halvard Buhaug (2012) Heat Waves and Rebel Raves? On Climate Variability and Civil War in Asia, presented at Annual convention of the International Studies Association, San Diego, CA, 1–4 April.
Urdal, Henrik; Kristian Hoelscher & Halvard Buhaug (2012) Does Urbanization Lead to More Peace? Rural-Urban Age Structure Differentials and Civil War, presented at The Annual convention of the International Studies Association, San Diego, CA, 1–4 April.
Buhaug, Halvard;Cederman, Lars-Erik; & Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede 2011 Square Pegs in Round Holes: Inequalities, Grievances, and Civil War, presented at American Political Science Association (APSA), , 1–4 September.
Buhaug, Halvard; & Henrik Urdal (2010) An Urbanization Bomb? Population Growth and Social Disorder in Cities, presented at DKNVS 250 Anniversary Conference on Climate Change and Security, Trondheim, 21 June.
Buhaug, Halvard;Cederman, Lars-Erik; & Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede 2010 Square Pegs in Round Holes: Grievances, Inequalities, and Civil War, presented at Peace Science Society (International), , 22–23 October.
Buhaug, Halvard; & Urdal, Henrik 2010 An Urbanization Bomb? Population Growth and Social Disorder in Cities, presented at Urban Affairs Association, , 10 March.
Buhaug, Halvard;Falch, Åshild; & Gleditsch, Nils Petter 2010 The Bottom Billion and Climate Change, presented at International Studies Association Annual Convention, , 17–20 February.
Theisen, Ole Magnus;Holtermann, Helge; & Buhaug, Halvard 2010Drought, Political Exclusion, and Civil War, presented at International Studies Association Annual Convention17–20 February.
Rustad, Siri Aas; Halvard Buhaug; Åshild Falch & Scott Gates (2009) Subnational Variation in Civil Conflict Risk, presented at 50th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, New York, NY, 15–18 February.
Buhaug, Halvard; Kristian Skrede Gleditsch; Helge Holtermann & Gudrun Østby (2009) Poverty, Inequality, and Conflict: Using Within-Country Variation to Evaluate Competing Hypotheses, presented at 50th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, New York, NY, 15–18 February.
Buhaug, Halvard & Henrik Urdal (2009) Will Climate Change Lead to more Urban Violence? Urbanization, Urban Environmental Problems, and Social Disorder in Cities, presented at 50th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, New York, NY, 15–18 February.
Buhaug, Halvard;Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede;Holtermann, Helge; & Østby, Gudrun 2008Poverty, Inequality, and Conflict: Using Within-Country Variation to Evaluate Competing Hypotheses, presented at Peace Science Society (International)24 October.
Rød, Jan Ketil & Halvard Buhaug (2008) Civil Wars: Prospects and Problems with the Use of Local Indicators, presented at 49th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, San Francisco, CA, 26–29 March.
Buhaug, Halvard; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Ole Magnus Theisen (2008) Climate Change, the Environment, and Armed Conflict, presented at American Political Science Association, Boston, MA, 28–31 August.
Buhaug, Halvard; Kristen Ringdal; Albert Simkus & Ola Listhaug (2008) Ethnic Polarization and Post-Conflict Animosity: The Case of Macedonia, presented at American Political Science Association, Boston, MA, 28–31 August.
Buhaug, Halvard (2007) Dude, Where’s My Conflict? LSG, Relative Strength, and the Location of Civil War, presented at Annual Meeting of the Peace Science Society, Columbia, SC, 2–4 November.
Buhaug, Halvard (2007) Dude, Where’s My Conflict? LSG, Relative Strength, and the Location of Civil War, presented at Statsvitenskaplig Fagkonferanse, Trondheim, 3–5 January.

PRIO Policy Brief

Rosvold, Elisabeth Lio; Halvard Buhaug & Siri Aas Rustad (2020) Development Aid, Drought and Coping Capacity, PRIO Policy Brief, 4. Oslo: PRIO.
Buhaug, Halvard & Ida Rudolfsen (2015) A Climate of Conflicts?, Conflict Trends, 5. Oslo: PRIO.

PRIO Paper

Bahgat, Karim; Halvard Buhaug & Henrik Urdal (2018) Urban Social Disorder: An Update, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.
Buhaug, Halvard & Jonas Nordkvelle (2014) Climate and conflict: A Comment on Hsiang et al.'s Reply to Buhaug et al., PRIO Paper. Oslo: Peace Research Institute Oslo.
Buhaug, Halvard; Håvard Hegre & Håvard Strand (2010) Sensitivity Analysis of Climate Variability and Civil War, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Report - Other

Gilmore, Elisabeth; Halvard Buhaug; & Håvard Hegre (2016) Maintaining Security: What Can Be Done to Prevent the Pressures of Climate Change Leading to Conflict?, Climate 2020. Rising to the Challenge. London: United Nations Association - UK.
Buhaug, Halvard; Nils Petter Gleditsch; & Ole Magnus Theisen (2008) Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict, Social Dimensions of Climate Change Workshop. Washington, DC.
Buhaug, Halvard; Scott Gates; Håvard Hegre; & Håvard Strand (2007) Global Trends in Armed Conflict, Globale Norge - hva nå?. Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Report - External Series

Vestby, Jonas; Andreas Forø Tollefsen; & Halvard Buhaug (2022) Climate and International Migration Flows: A Sensitivity Analysis of Gravity Model Specifications, QuantMig Background Paper. Oslo: PRIO.
Buhaug, Halvard (2018) Global Security Challenges of Climate Change, Toda Peace Institute Policy Brief, 18. Tokyo.
Rustad, Siri Aas; Åshild Falch; Scott Gates; & Halvard Buhaug (2009) Risk Assessment and Mitigation Measures for Natural and Conflict-Related Hazards in Asia-Pacific, NGI Report 200716001. Oslo: Norwegian Geotechnical Institute.

Blog Posts

Armed Conflict and Climate Change: How These Two Threats Play Out in Africa

Posted by Halvard Buhaug on Thursday, 10 November 2022

The world is falling miserably short of reducing carbon emissions in line with the Paris Agreement, a 2015 treaty to keep global warming well below 2℃. The results of this failure are a greater increase in the prevalence and severity of extreme weather events, more rapid sea-level rises and an elevated ... Read more »

New Report by the IPCC: Climate Adaptation Is Happening Too Slowly

Posted by Tor A. Benjaminsen, Halvard Buhaug, Knut Yngve Børsheim, Mark J. Costello, Siri H. Eriksen, Mette Skern-Mauritzen & Nils Chr. Stenseth on Wednesday, 9 March 2022

When the first part of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) was released last summer, the UN Secretary-General António Guterres declared “Code Red for humanity”. The report documented that climate change is more extensive and occurs more rapidly than previously assumed, and showed the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. ... Read more »

Obscuring the True Causes of Conflicts

Posted by Tor Arve Benjaminsen, Halvard Buhaug & Stig J. Hansen on Thursday, 29 July 2021

Is Norway’s mission on the Security Council to reinforce the myth that climate change is a root cause of violent conflicts? This will make finding lasting solutions more difficult. As a new member of the UN Security Council, Norway has identified climate security as one of four key thematic priorities ... Read more »

Can the effects of climatic change predict asylum migration to Europe?

Posted by Sebastian Schutte, Jonas Vestby, Jørgen Carling & Halvard Buhaug on Thursday, 8 April 2021

Five years after the European migration and refugee crisis, displacement remains a pressing issue worldwide. According to the UNHCR, the global number of forcibly displaced people passed 80 million during 2020 – the highest estimate ever recorded. Several factors have contributed to this increase, including a rise in political violence and instability, ... Read more »

Climate-conflict research: A decade of scientific progress

Posted by Halvard Buhaug & Nina von Uexkull on Friday, 5 March 2021

The last decade was the warmest on record, with 2020 tied with 2016 for the all-time high average annual global temperature. This 10-year period also saw armed conflicts at severity levels not seen since the Cold War era. Could there be a causal link between these trends? To the frustration ... Read more »

The World Food Program Won the Nobel Peace Prize. Does Food Aid Boost Peace?

Posted by Ida Rudolfsen & Halvard Buhaug on Wednesday, 28 October 2020

The Norwegian Nobel Committee named this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner, recognizing the World Food Program (WFP) for “for its efforts to combat hunger, for its contribution to bettering conditions for peace in conflict-affected areas and for acting as a driving force in efforts to prevent the use of hunger as a weapon of war and ... Read more »

Climate, Peace and Security

Posted by Halvard Buhaug on Sunday, 12 February 2017

Despite rapid scientific progress, firm knowledge about the societal consequences of global warming remains limited. What are the implications of climate change for peace and security? Should we expect more wars and more political instability as the world heats up? The real concerns linked to climate change are not about ... Read more »

A Climate of Conflicts?

Posted by Halvard Buhaug & Ida Rudolfsen on Thursday, 7 May 2015

Political violence correlates strongly with climate: Civil conflict risk is seven to ten times higher in dry and tropical climates than in continental climate zones. Yet, there is little evidence that climatic variability and change are important in understanding this pattern. The prospect of climate change causing forced migration and ... Read more »

Reflections on Climate-Conflict Research: More Confusion than Knowledge

Posted by Halvard Buhaug on Tuesday, 10 March 2015

Does climate change constitute a threat to peace and security? Many agree that it does. The US administration’s new National Security Strategy, launched last month, portrays climate change as ‘an urgent and growing threat.’ And this week, a new study appears to add scientific credibility to this concern, suggesting human-caused ... Read more »

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