Conflict Patterns

Coordinator: Gudrun Østby

​​​​Is the world becoming more peaceful? The overarching goal of all peace research, including PRIO, is to promote this trend. It is therefore not surprising that PRIO is engaged in tracking conflict trends. For a large number of trends, the current statistics convey a very pleasant result: The world getting more peaceful!

​The Conflict Patterns group is:

  • Collecting data on political violence in many different forms and shapes. Our aim is to both update existing numbers and discover new concepts of political violence that should be tracked
  • Analyzing and discussing external data sources. PRIOs rather unique mix of researchers from different subjects assure a healthy combination of perspectives and methods
  • Thinking forward! What are the key obstacles to peace on earth, and how might we best understand what direction these obstacles might be developing? And, crucially, examining whether we can, effectively, interfere positively in these processes.


Current Projects

Past Projects

Research Group News

Past Events


Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Thomson, Henry; Karim Bahgat; Henrik Urdal & Halvard Buhaug (2022) Urban Social Disorder 3.0: A global, city-level event dataset of political mobilization and disorder, Journal of Peace Research. DOI: 10.1177/00223433221082991.
Butcher, Charles; Jessica Maves Braithwaite; Jonathan Pinckney; Eirin Haugseth; Ingrid Vik Bakken & Marius Swane Wishman (2022) Introducing the Anatomy of Resistance Campaigns (ARC) dataset, Journal of Peace Research. DOI: 10.1177/00223433211029512.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Gudmund Horn Hermansen & Carl Henrik Knutsen (2021) Characterizing and Assessing Temporal Heterogeneity: Introducing a Change Point Framework, with Applications on the Study of Democratization, Political Analysis 29(4): 485–504.
Olsson, Louise & Erika Forsberg (2021) Examining Gender Inequality and Armed Conflict at the Subnational Level, Journal of Global Security Studies. DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogaa023.
Rustad, Siri Aas; Helga Malmin Binningsbø; Haakon Gjerløw; Francis Mwesigye; Tony Odokonyero & Gudrun Østby (2021) Maternal Health Care Among Refugees and Host Communities in Northern Uganda: Access, Quality, and Discrimination, Frontiers in Global Women's Health 2.
Thomson, Henry; Halvard Buhaug; Henrik Urdal & Elisabeth Lio Rosvold (2021) Group organization, elections and urban political mobilization in the developing world, Democratization. DOI: 10.1080/13510347.2021.1944117.
Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Peder Landsverk (2021) Can We Predict Armed Conflict? How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality, International Studies Quarterly 65(3): 660–668.
Bakken, Ingrid Vik & Halvard Buhaug (2021) Civil War and Female Empowerment, Journal of Conflict Resolution 65(5): 982–1009.
Cao, Xun; Theodora-Ismene Gizelis; Anja Shortland & Henrik Urdal (2020) Drought, local public goods, and inter-communal conflicts: Testing the mediating effects of public service provisions, Defence and Peace Economics. DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1855560.
Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2020) Experienced poverty and local conflict violence, Conflict Management and Peace Science 37(3): 323–349.
Cunningham, Kathleen Gallagher; Marianne Dahl & Anne Frugé (2020) Introducing the Strategies of Resistance Data Project, Journal of Peace Research 57(3): 482–491.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2020) What will the world look like after the pandemic?, Jeju Forum Journal 1(1): 64–71.
Balcells, Laia & Francisco Villamil (2020) The Double Logic of Internal Purges: New Evidence from Francoist Spain, Nationalism and Ethnic Politics 26(3): 260–278.
Fjelde, Hanne; Carl Henrik Knutsen & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2020) Which institutions matter? Re-considering the democratic civil peace, International Studies Quarterly. DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaa076.
Juárez, Nicolás Corona; Henrik Urdal & Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati (2020) The significance of age structure, education, and youth unemployment for explaining subnational variation in violent youth crime in Mexico, Conflict Management and Peace Science. DOI: 10.1177/0738894220946324.
Hoelscher, Kristian & Terefe Degefa (2020) Development Aid and Health Equity in Ethiopia, Development Studies Research 7(1): 83–92.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter (2020) Toward a Social-Democratic Peace?, Ethics & International Affairs 34(1): 67–75.
Theisen, Ole Magnus; Håvard Strand & Gudrun Østby (2020) Ethno-political favoritism in maternal health care service delivery: Micro-level evidence from sub-Saharan Africa, 1981–2014, International Area Studies Review 23(1): 3–27.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Nils Lid Hjort & Celine Marie Løken Cunen (2020) Statistical sightings of better angels: Analysing the distribution of battle-deaths in interstate conflict over time, Journal of Peace Research 57(2): 221–234.
Kotsadam, Andreas & Gudrun Østby (2019) Armed conflict and maternal mortality: A micro-level study of sub-Saharan Africa, 1989–2013, Social Science & Medicine 239: 1–2.
Bove, Vincenzo; Mauricio Rivera & Chiara Ruffa (2019) Beyond coups: terrorism and military involvement in politics, European Journal of International Relations. DOI:
Vestby, Annette & Jonas Vestby (2019) Machine Learning and the Police: Asking the Right Questions, Policing: a Journal of Policy and Practice. DOI: 10.1093/police/paz035.
Vestby, Jonas (2019) Climate variability and individual motivations for participating in political violence, Global Environment Change 56: 114–123.
Hoelscher, Kristian & Siri Aas Rustad (2019) CSR and social conflict in the Brazilian extractive sector, Conflict, Security and Development 19(1): 99–119.
Hegre, Håvard; Marie Allansson; Matthias Basedau; Michael Colaresi; Mihai Croicu; Hanne Fjelde; Frederick Hoyles; Lisa Hultman; Stina Högbladh; Remco Jansen; Naima Mouhleb; Sayyed Auwn Muhammad; Desirée Nilsson; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Gudlaug Olafsdottir; Kristina Petrova; David Randahl; Espen Geelmuyden Rød; Gerald Schneider; Nina von Uexkull & Jonas Vestby (2019) ViEWS: A political Violence Early-Warning System, Journal of Peace Research 56(2): 155–174.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Christian Davenport; Hanne Fjelde & Dave Armstrong (2019) The Consequences of Contention: Understanding the Aftereffects of Political Conflict and Violence, Annual Review of Political Science 22(1): 1–19.
Hegre, Håvard; Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2019) Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations, The Journal of Politics 81(1): 215–232.
McDougal, Topher; Athena Kolbe; Robert Muggah & Nicholas Marsh (2018) Ammunition leakage from military to civilian markets: market price evidence from Haiti, 2004–2012, Defence and Peace Economics. DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1492226.
Østby, Gudrun; Henrik Urdal; Andreas Forø Tollefsen; Andreas Kotsadam; Ragnhild Belbo & Christin Marsh Ormhaug (2018) Organized Violence and Institutional Child Delivery: Micro-Level Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa, 1989–2014, Demography 55(4): 1295–1316.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2017) Achieving the sustainable development agenda: The governance – conflict nexus, International Area Studies Review. DOI: 10.1177/2233865916683609: 1–16.
Hoelscher, Kristian; Jason Miklian & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2017) Conflict, Peacekeeping and Humanitarian Security: Understanding Violent Attacks against Aid Workers, International Peacekeeping. DOI: 10.1080/13533312.2017.1321958: 1–28.
Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Julian Wucherpfennig & Nils W. Metternich (2017) Introduction: Forecasting in peace research, Journal of Peace Research 54(2): 113–124.
Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Ranveig Flaten Ræder (2017) Evaluating the scope and intensity of the conflict trap: A dynamic simulation approach, Journal of Peace Research 54(2): 243–261.
Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Tore Wig (2017) Autocratic Elections: Stabilizing Tool or Force for Change?, World Politics 69(1): 98–143.
Rustad, Siri Aas (2016) Socioeconomic Inequalities and Attitudes toward Violence: A Test with New Survey Data in the Niger Delta, International Interactions 42(1): 106–139.
Buhaug, Halvard; Lars-Erik Cederman & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch (2016) Ulikhet, eksklusjon og borgerkrig [Inequality, Exclusion, and Civil War], Politica 48(1): 12–29.
Gates, Scott & Sukanya Podder (2015) Social Media, Recruitment, Allegiance, and the Islamic State, Perspectives on Terrorism 9(4): 107–116.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2015) Prediksjon i internasjonal politikk [Predicting international politics], Internasjonal Politikk 73(4): 467–487.
White, Peter B.; Dragana Vidovic; Belén González; Kristian Skrede Gleditsch & David Cunningham (2015) Nonviolence as a Weapon of the Resourceful: From Claims to Tactics in Mobilization, Mobilization 20(4): 471–491.
Marsh, Nicholas (2015) Firearms Seizures and Trafficking: A «Local» Phenomenon, The Strategic Trade Review 1(1): 73–87.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2015) The role of international organizations in regime transitions: How IGOs can tie a dictator’s hands, Conflict Management and Peace Science. DOI: 10.1177/0738894215599554.
Hegre, Håvard & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Governance and Conflict Relapse, Journal of Conflict Resolution 59(6): 984–1016.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Michael Weintraub (2015) Bargaining Between Rebel Groups and the Outside Option of Violence, Terrorism and Political Violence 27(3): 557–580.
Tollefsen, Andreas Forø & Halvard Buhaug (2015) Insurgency and Inaccessibility, International Studies Review 17(1): 6–25.
Linke, Andrew; Sebastian Schutte & Halvard Buhaug (2015) Population Attitudes and the Spread of Political Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa, International Studies Review 17(1): 26–45.
Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Institutional Characteristics and Regime Survival: Why Are Semi-Democracies Less Durable Than Autocracies and Democracies?, American Journal of Political Science 59(3): 656–670.
Kim, Woosang & Scott Gates (2015) Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China, International Area Studies Review 18(3): 219–226.
Brehm, John & Scott Gates (2015) Bureaucratic Politics Arising from, Not Defined by, a Principal-Agency Dyad, Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory 25(1): 27–42.
Strand, Håvard & Henrik Urdal (2014) Hear nothing, see nothing, say nothing: Can states reduce the risk of armed conflict by banning census data on ethnic groups?, International Area Studies Review 17(2): 167–183.
Buhaug, Halvard; Lars-Erik Cederman & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch (2014) Square Pegs in Round Holes: Inequalities, Grievances, and Civil War, International Studies Quarterly 58(2): 418–431.
Holtermann, Helge (2014) Relative Capacity and the Spread of Rebellion: Insights from Nepal, Journal of Conflict Resolution 60(3): 501–529.
Holtermann, Helge (2014) How Can Weak Insurgent Groups Grow? Insights From Nepal, Terrorism and Political Violence 28(2): 316–337.
Lacina, Bethany Ann & Nils Petter Gleditsch (2013) The Waning of War is Real: A Response to Gohdes and Price, Journal of Conflict Resolution 57(6): 1109–1127.
Hegre, Håvard; Joakim Karlsen; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2013) Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010–2050, International Studies Quarterly 57(2): 250–270.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Steven Pinker; Bradley A. Thayer; Jack S. Levy & William R. Thompson (2013) The Forum: The Decline of War, International Studies Review 15(3): 396–419.
Urdal, Henrik & Kristian Hoelscher (2012) Explaining Urban Social Disorder and Violence: An Empirical Study of Event Data from Asian and Sub-Saharan African Cities, International Interactions 38(4): 512–528.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2012) Development Consequences of Armed Conflict, World Development 40(9): 1713–1722.
Holtermann, Helge (2012) Explaining the Development–Civil War Relationship, Conflict Management and Peace Science 29(1): 56–78.
Tollefsen, Andreas Forø; Håvard Strand & Halvard Buhaug (2012) PRIO-GRID: A Unified Spatial Data Structure, Journal of Peace Research 49(2): 363–374.
Hallberg, Johan Dittrich (2012) PRIO Conflict Site 1989–2008: A Geo-Referenced Dataset on Armed Conflict, Conflict Management and Peace Science 29(2): 219–232.
Hegre, Håvard; Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2011) Simulating the Effect of Peacekeeping Operations 2010–2035, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 6589: 325–332.
Raleigh, Clionadh; Andrew Linke; Håvard Hegre & Joakim Karlsen (2010) Introducing ACLED: An Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset: Special Data Feature, Journal of Peace Research 47(5): 651–660.
Elbadawi, Ibrahim; Håvard Hegre & Gary Milante (2008) Introduction: The Aftermath of Civil War, Journal of Peace Research 45(4): 451–459.

PhD Thesis

Marsh, Nicholas (2020) Because We Have the Maxim Gun The Relationship between Arms Acquisition by Non-State Groups and Violence. PhD thesis, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo.


Cunningham, Kathleen Gallagher (2014) Inside the Politics of Self-Determination. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Gates, Scott & Kaushik Roy (2014) Unconventional Warfare in South Asia, Shadow Warriors and Counterinsurgency. Farnham: Ashgate.
Cederman, Lars-Erik; Kristian Skrede Gleditsch & Halvard Buhaug (2013) Inequality, Grievances, and Civil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Cambridge Studies in Contentious Politics.

Book Chapter

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Håvard Strand (2020) Safety and Security, in Handbook on Governance Statistics. New York: United Nations (189–220).
Strand, Håvard & Halvard Buhaug (2018) Tracing Armed Conflict over Time: A Reversal of the Recent Decline?, in Backer, David; Ravinder Bhavnani; & Paul Huth, eds, Peace and Conflict 2017. New York: Routledge (16–22).
Rustad, Siri Aas; Gudrun Østby & Henrik Urdal (2017) Conflicts and the Demographic Transition: Economic Opportunity or Disaster?, in Groth, Hans; & John F. May, eds, Africa's Population: In Search of a Demographic Dividend. Cham, Switzerland: Springer (483–496).
Strand, Håvard & Halvard Buhaug (2016) Armed Conflict, 1946–2014, in Backer, David; Ravinder Bhavnani; & Paul Huth, eds, Peace and Conflict 2016. New York: Routledge (19–24).
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2016) Development Consequences of Armed Conflict, in Pérouse de Montclos, Marc-Antoine; Elizabeth Minor; & Samrat Sinha, eds, Violence, Statistics, and the Politics of Accounting For the Dead. Berlin: Springer (25–45).
Hegre, Håvard & Idunn Kristiansen (2016) Global, State, and Individual Security in Quantitative Conflict Research, in Schlag, Gabi; Julian Junk; & Christopher Daase, eds, Transformations of Security Studies: Dialogues, Diversity and Discipline. New York: Routledge (190–215).
Bennett, Andrew & Jeffrey T. Checkel (2014) Process tracing: from philosophical roots to best practices, in Bennett, Andrew; & Jeffrey T. Checkel, eds, Process Tracing: from Metaphor to Analytic Tool. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (3–37).
Checkel, Jeffrey T. (2014) Mechanisms, process, and the study of international institutions, in Bennett, Andrew; & Jeffrey T. Checkel, eds, Process Tracing: from Metaphor to Analytic Tool. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (74–97).
Checkel, Jeffrey T. & Andrew Bennett (2014) Beyond metaphors: standards, theory, and the 'where next' for process tracing, in Bennett, Andrew; & Jeffrey T. Checkel, eds, Process Tracing: from Metaphor to Analytic Tool. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (260–275).
Checkel, Jeffrey T. (2014) Identity, Europe, and the world beyond public spheres, in Thomas Risse, ed., European Public Spheres: Politics is Back. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (227–246).
Schneider, Gerald & Nils Petter Gleditsch (2013) The capitalist peace: Origins and prospects of a liberal idea, in Schneider, Gerald; & Nils Petter Gleditsch, eds, Assessing the Capitalist Peace. London: Routledge.

Edited Volume

Schneider, Gerald; & Nils Petter Gleditsch, eds, (2013) Assessing the Capitalist Peace. London: Routledge.

Non-refereed Journal Article

Urdal, Henrik; Gudrun Østby & Nils Petter Gleditsch (2014) Journal of Peace Research, Peace Review 26(4): 500–504.
Buhaug, Halvard; Henrik Urdal & Jack S. Levy (2014) 50 Years of Peace Research: An Introduction to the Journal of Peace Research Anniversary Special Issue, Journal of Peace Research 51(2): 139–144.

Popular Article

Østby, Gudrun; Olga Shemyakina; Andreas Forø Tollefsen & Henrik Urdal (2022) What happens to childhood vaccine rates in conflict zones? This analysis found some surprises, Monkey Cage at the Washington Post, 3 February.
Haer, Roos; Gudrun Østby; Siri Aas Rustad & Andrew Arasmith (2021) 1 in 8 Children Are at Risk of Being Recruited by Armed Actors, PRIO Blog, 30 November.
Østby, Gudrun & Ragnhild Nordås (2021) Protection of Education in Conflict Zones – a Step in the Right Direction, PRIO Blog, 5 November.
Nagel, Robert; Ragnhild Nordås; Gudrun Østby; Siri Aas Rustad & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2021) 72 Million Children Are at Risk for Sexual Violence in Conflict. What Can Be Done?, PRIO Blog, 19 February.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Håvard Hegre & Peder Landsverk (2021) Kan vi forutse krig? Studier gir grunn til optimisme [Can we predict conflict? Studies give cause for optimism], Aftenposten, 26 January.
Arellano, Adrian; Christian Davenport & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2020) Ender protestene med bare nok en rapport? [Will the US protests simply end in another report?], Aftenposten, 11 June.
Hegre, Håvard; Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2020) Norge bør fronte fredsbevarende operasjoner [Norway should support peacekeeing operations], Dagens Næringsliv, 29 February.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Celine Marie Løken Cunen & Nils Lid Hjort (2019) Blir verden egentlig fredeligere? [Is the world getting more peaceful?], Aftenposten, 19 December.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Sirianne Dahlum; Gudrun Østby & Siri Aas Rustad (2019) Slik fanges mange land i en «ulikhetsfelle» [This is how many countries fall into an inequality trap], Dagens Næringsliv, 19 December.
Dahl, Marianne; Tora Sagård; Haakon Gjerløw & Bintu Zahara Sakor (2019) Twitterrevolusjonens vekst og fall [The Rise and Fall of the Twitter Revolution], Aftenposten, 8 December.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Håvard Hegre & Lisa Hultman (2019) U.N. peacekeeping really can be effective. Here’s how we tabulated this, Washington Post, 7 August.
Binningsbø, Helga Malmin; Marianne Dahl; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Michael Weintraub & Abbey Steele (2019) Colombia’s historic peace agreement with the FARC is fraying. We talked to 1,700 Colombians to understand why, Washington Post, 7 August.
Sagmo, Tove Heggli; Marta Bivand Erdal; Rojan Tordhol Ezzati; Maria Gabrielsen Jumbert & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Innvandringsdebatt på feil premisser [Wrong premises for the debate about immigration into Europe], NRK Ytring, 8 September.
Rudolfsen, Ida (2015) Islam og konflikt [Islam and conflict], Ny Tid, 1 April.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Ida Rudolfsen (2015) Brannen i islams hus [The Fire in the House of Islam], Aftenposten innsikt, 12 March.
Østby, Gudrun; Henrik Urdal & Ida Rudolfsen (2014) Utdanning Skaper Fred [Education Creates Peace], Dagsavisen, 10 December.

Master Thesis

Haug, Jens Kristoffer (2019) Focused Model Selection for Markov Chain Models: With an Application to Armed Conflict Data. MA thesis, Department of Mathematics, University of Oslo.
Sagård, Tora (2019) Causes of Ceasefire Failure: A survival analysis, 1989-2017. MA thesis, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Oslo.
Arnesen, Petter Kristiansen (2019) Hit ‘em Where It Hurts: Measuring and Testing the Impact of Economic Nonviolent Strategies on Democratization. MA thesis, Department of Comparative Politics, University of Bergen, Bergen.
Landsverk, Peder (2019) Partial Automation of the Data-collection Process. MA thesis, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Oslo.
Saxegaard, Sverke (2019) The War That Wasn’t: Explaining Relative Peacefulness. MA thesis, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Oslo.
Smidt, Martin (2015) The Trouble with Herding Cats: Country effects on the accuracy of conflict forecasting. MA thesis, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Oslo.

Conference Paper

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2020) Timing Matters: The Impact of Regularity of Election Cycles on Autocratic Stability, presented at Working Paper, PRIO, Oslo, 22.04.2020.
Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand; Scott Gates & Ranveig D. Flaten (2011) The Conflict Trap, presented at American Political Science Association Annual Meeting., Seattle, WA, October 11, 2011.
Buhaug, Halvard; & Henrik Urdal (2010) An Urbanization Bomb? Population Growth and Social Disorder in Cities, presented at DKNVS 250 Anniversary Conference on Climate Change and Security, Trondheim, 21 June.
Hegre, Håvard;Hultman, Lisa ; & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv 2010 Evaluating the Conflict Reducing Effects of UN Peace-Keeping Operations, presented at American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, , 1–5 September.

PRIO Policy Brief

Jarland, Julie; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Scott Gates; Emilie Hermansen & Vilde Bergstad Larsen (2020) How Should We Understand Patterns of Recurring Conflict?, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.
Strand, Håvard; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Hegre (2020) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2019, Conflict Trends, 8. Oslo: PRIO.
Rudolfsen, Ida (2019) Non-State Conflicts: Trends from 1989 to 2018, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.
Strand, Håvard; Siri Aas Rustad; Henrik Urdal & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2019) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2018, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.
Rustad, Siri Aas & Ingrid Vik Bakken (2019) Conflict Trends in Africa, 1989–2018, Conflict Trends, 6. Oslo: PRIO.
Rustad, Siri Aas; Andreas Forø Tollefsen & Scott Gates (2019) The Fall and Rise of the Islamic State (IS), Conflict Trends, 4. Oslo: PRIO.
Palik, Júlia & Siri Aas Rustad (2019) Mediation in the Yemeni Civil War: Actors, Outcomes, and Lessons Learned, Conflict Trends, 5. Oslo: PRIO.
Dupuy, Kendra & Siri Aas Rustad (2018) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2017, Conflict Trends, 5. Oslo: PRIO.
Bakken, Ingrid Vik & Siri Aas Rustad (2018) Conflict Trends in Africa, 1989–2017, Conflict Trends, 6. Oslo: PRIO.
Hegre, Håvard; Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2017) Peacekeeping Works: Evaluating the effectiveness of UN peacekeeping operations, Conflict Trends, 6. Oslo: PRIO.
Rustad, Siri Aas & Gudrun Østby (2017) Education and Systematic Group Inequalities in Nigeria, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.
Dupuy, Kendra; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Ida Rudolfsen; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2017) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2016, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.
Bahgat, Karim; Gray Barrett; Kendra Dupuy; Scott Gates; Solveig Hillesund; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand; Henrik Urdal & Gudrun Østby (2017) Inequality and Armed Conflict: Evidence and Policy Recommendations, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2016) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2014, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Esther Trappeniers (2016) Conflict Recurrence, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.
Paasonen, Kari & Henrik Urdal (2016) Youth Bulges, Exclusion and Instability: The Role of Youth in the Arab Spring, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Michael Weintraub (2016) Rejecting Peace? Legacies of Violence in Colombia, Conflict Trends, 4. Oslo: PRIO.
Dyrstad, Karin; Helga Malmin Binningsbø; Kristin M. Bakke & Arne Henning Eide (2016) Public Support for Peace Agreements: The Cases of Guatemala, Nepal, and Northern Ireland, Conflict Trends, 5. Oslo: PRIO.
Must, Elise​ & Siri Aas Rustad (2016) Perceptions of Justice and Violent Mobilization: Explaining Petroleum Related Riots in Southern Tanzania, Conflict Trends, 6. Oslo: PRIO.
Dupuy, Kendra; Scott Gates & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2016) State Fragility and Armed Conflict, Conflict Trends, 7. Oslo: PRIO.
Dupuy, Kendra; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Ida Rudolfsen; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2016) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2015, Conflict Trends, 8. Oslo: PRIO.
Nordås, Ragnhild (2015) Civilian Targeting by Militias: The Important Role of States, Conflict Trends, 7. Oslo: PRIO.
Hegre, Håvard; Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Peacekeeping Works: An Assessment of the Effectiveness of UN Peacekeeping Operations, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Ukiwo, Ukoha O. & Siri Aas Rustad (2015) Nigeria’s Presidential Election 2015, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Ida Rudolfsen (2015) Are Muslim Countries More War-Prone?, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.
Svensson, Isak & Magnus Lundgren (2015) Patterns of Peacemaking, Conflict Trends, 4. Oslo: PRIO.
Buhaug, Halvard & Ida Rudolfsen (2015) A Climate of Conflicts?, Conflict Trends, 5. Oslo: PRIO.
Hoelscher, Kristian; Jason Miklian & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Understanding Attacks on Humanitarian Aid Workers, Conflict Trends, 6. Oslo: PRIO.
Hegre, Håvard & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2014) Peace on Earth? The Future of Internal Armed Conflict, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Dahl, Marianne; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2014) Ukraine and the Role of the Security Forces in Popular Uprisings, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2014) Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.

PRIO Paper

Eck, Kristine & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2017) Measuring SDG 16.1.2: The UCDP Data, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Thomas Wheeler & Henrik Urdal (2016) Options for Measuring Conflict Deaths in Goal 16, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.
Buhaug, Halvard & Jonas Nordkvelle (2014) Climate and conflict: A Comment on Hsiang et al.'s Reply to Buhaug et al., PRIO Paper. Oslo: Peace Research Institute Oslo.

Report - Other

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Abbey Steele; Helga Malmin Binningsbø; Michael Weintraub; Christopher Fariss; & Pablo Ruiz Hiebra (2021) Lights and Shadows of the Peace Agreement Implementation in Colombia: Attitudes and Perceptions in the PDET Territories, PRIO-UNDP joint report. .
Barakat, Sultan; Siri Aas Rustad; Mona Hedaya; & Sansom Milton (2021) Conflict Trends in the Arab World, 1946–2019Doha & Oslo: Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies (CHS) & the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
Klugman, Jeni; Amie Gaye; Marianne Dahl; Kelly Dale; & Elena Ortiz (2019) Women, Peace, and Security Index 2019/20: Tracking Sustainable Peace through Inclusion, Justice, and Security for WomenWashington, DC: GIWPS and PRIO.
Palik, Júlia; Håvard Strand; Govinda Clayton; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; & Siri Aas Rustad, eds, (2019) Yemen, Ceasefire Project Country ReportZürich, Switzerland: Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich, and Peace Research Institute in Oslo.
Bahgat, Karim; Kendra Dupuy; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand; Henrik Urdal; Gudrun Østby; Gray Barrett; & Solveig Hillesund (2017) Inequality and Armed Conflict: Evidence and Data.
Rustad, Siri Aas; & Karim Bahgat (2016) Nigeria Country StudyOslo: PRIO.

Report - External Series

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2020) SDG 16 Data Initiative: 2020 Global Report, SDG 16 Data Initiative Global Reports. .
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Carl Henrik Knutsen; & Gudmund Horn Hermansen (2019) Characterizing and Assessing Temporal Heterogeneity: Introducing a Change Point Framework, with Applications on the Study of Democratization, Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute Working Paper Series, 93. Gothenburg: Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Sirianne Dahlum; Gudrun Østby; & Siri Aas Rustad (2019) The Conflict–Inequality Trap: How Internal Armed Conflict Affects Horizontal Inequality, UNDP Human Development Report Background Paper, 2. New York: UNDP.
Marsh, Nicholas; Aaron Karp; & Giorgio Ravalgi (2015) UNODC Study on Firearms 2015, UNODC. Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; & Håvard Hegre (2015) Protracted Conflict and Development in the Arab Region, E/ESCWA/ECRI/2015/2 UNESCWA Trends and Impacts, 4. New York: United Nations.
Østby, Gudrun; & Henrik Urdal (2014) Conflict and Educational Inequality: Evidence from 30 Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, Commissioned report for USAID. USAID.

Blog Posts

Bias in Economic Models Ignores the Impact of War in Poor Nations

Posted by Håvard Hegre, Kristina Petrova, Gudlaug Olafsdottir & Elilsabeth A. Gilmore on Friday, 3 February 2023

New research shows that existing economic forecasting models vastly underestimate the impact of conflict on marginalized countries. National income for war-torn nations like Afghanistan, Niger and Yemen could be up to 50 to 70 per cent lower than existing estimates by the end of the century. When considering what our ... Read more »

The Results of a Prediction Competition Suggest the Fog of War Can Be Partially Lifted

Posted by Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi & Håvard Hegre on Friday, 30 December 2022

We may never be able to eradicate political violence like what is now seen in Ethiopia, or in the deaths and damage wrought around the Colombo region in Sri Lanka. As Plato noted, “Only the dead have seen the end of war”. But a more realistic goal may be within ... Read more »

Fewer Children Affected by Conflict, but Conflict Intensity Is on the Rise

Posted by Gudrun Østby, Siri Camilla Aas Rustad & Andrew Arasmith on Wednesday, 30 November 2022

Today Save the Children launches its new report Stop the War on Children: The Forgotten Ones. The report is based on PRIO’s sixth annual mapping of children in armed conflict covering the period 1990-2021. In 2021 our estimates suggest that 449 million children, or more than 1 out of 6 ... Read more »

2021 – A Bad Year for World Peace

Posted by Håvard Strand, Ida Rudolfsen, Marianne Dahl & Gudrun Østby on Thursday, 18 August 2022

After a declining trend since 2014 for the number of people killed in armed conflict, approximately 84,000 people died last year. Since 2014, we have seen a global declining trend for the number of people killed in armed conflict, but in 2021 this trend experienced a sharp reversal. New figures ... Read more »

Staying Rather Than Leaving? Displacement and Conflict-Exposure in Ukraine

Posted by Andreas Forø Tollefsen & Marta Bivand Erdal on Monday, 30 May 2022

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February has led to rapid and large-scale displacement. What do we know about the dynamics of conflict and mobility in Ukraine, and how does conflict exposure impact people’s decisions to stay or to go? Drawing on new survey data from Ukraine, we shed ... Read more »

Why Widespread Sexual Violence Is Likely in Ukraine

Posted by Ragnhild Nordås on Monday, 11 April 2022

Sexual violence has not received much attention in the coverage of the war in Ukraine. However, reports of cases of sexual violence by Russian or pro-Russian soldiers are just starting to appear. Some human rights organizations in Ukraine have already warned about this risk. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba recently claimed ... Read more »

How Did Europe Get into This Predicament? We Must Look in Our Own Backyard

Posted by Sverre Lodgaard on Thursday, 24 February 2022

It’s easy to condemn the opposing party in a polarized situation. But it’s more difficult to exercise self-criticism. It’s easy to condemn the opposing party in a polarized situation. Particularly when there are good reasons for such condemnation, as in the current situation. It’s easy to state that Russia’s lust ... Read more »

What Happens to Childhood Vaccine Rates in Conflict Zones? This Analysis Found Some Surprises

Posted by Gudrun Østby, Olga Shemyakina, Andreas Forø Tollefsen, Henrik Urdal & Marijke Verpoorten on Monday, 14 February 2022

We examined more than 200,000 records in 15 African countries. As more coronavirus vaccines begin to reach the developing world, global health authorities are pointing out the need for other vaccines as well. UNICEF recently launched a record $9.4 billion emergency appeal to help more than 327 million people — including 177 million children — affected ... Read more »

The New Pattern of Conflict in Myanmar

Posted by Stein Tønnesson on Wednesday, 1 December 2021

A new conflict pattern has appeared in Myanmar. Amidst a spiraling economic, social and health crisis, armed fighting is no longer confined to ethnic minority areas but has cropped up in cities and regions where the ethnic Bamar are in majority. They see themselves as pursuing a nation-wide resistance. Preventive ... Read more »

1 in 8 Children Are at Risk of Being Recruited by Armed Actors

Posted by Roos Haer, Gudrun Østby, Siri Camilla Aas Rustad & Andrew Arasmith on Tuesday, 30 November 2021

The recruitment and use of children as soldiers is one of the United Nations Security Council’s ‘six grave violations’ against children in times of war, as well as one of the most significant consequences of armed conflict in terms of children’s wellbeing. On 30 November, Save the Children launched its ... Read more »

Do Cease-Fires in Syria Work? We Checked the Data.

Posted by Sunniva Unn Hustad & Siri Camilla Aas Rustad on Wednesday, 30 June 2021

Our research looks at 10 years of truces in Syria. A missile attack last weekend in northern Syria left a hospital in ruins and further casualties in a residential area. But these types of attacks have become less common in Syria. Although this civil war remains among the most devastating ... Read more »

Can We Predict Civil War?

Posted by Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Håvard Hegre & Peder Landsverk on Thursday, 4 February 2021

Since 2010, almost 700,000 people have been killed as the direct result of warfare. But war kills and injures far more people than those who die directly on the battlefield. War destroys health systems, increases infant mortality, reduces life expectancy, increases poverty, and deprives children of education. If we could ... Read more »

Which Countries Win (and Lose) When We Add Democracy to the Human Development Index?

Posted by Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Vilde Bergstad Larsen on Wednesday, 30 December 2020

The UNDP’s Human Development Index (HDI) is a major achievement. It has focused the world’s attention on the human aspects of development, highlighting and featuring not just economic gains but also schooling and education and life expectancy. In this, it was a hugely important corrective for a development community that ... Read more »

Protests, Elections, and Ethnic Tensions in West Africa: What are the Driving Forces?

Posted by Bintu Zahara Sakor & Vamo Soko on Tuesday, 24 November 2020

As ongoing post-electoral violence across West-Africa continues, especially in countries such as Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire, the region is forced to urgently address the implications of long-term economic decline and poor governance systems. What are the key driving forces for the current troubling political atmosphere? Post-election Violence: Guinea  and Côte ... Read more »

Whoever Wins the American Presidential Election, Democracy is Losing

Posted by Derrick Darby, Christian Davenport & David Armstrong on Thursday, 5 November 2020

The nation’s frenzied attention on the presidential election comes amid the backdrop of the crucial issues of the COVID-19 pandemic, police violence, racial protest, militia threats, the Supreme Court and active attempts at voter suppression. Supporters of both presidential candidates see the other side’s win as apocalyptic. Our recent research ... Read more »

Mali’s Coup Leaves a Leadership Vacuum: Can the country rebuild stronger?

Posted by Zoë Gorman & Marie Sandnes on Thursday, 27 August 2020

In the early morning hours of Wednesday 19 August, the Malian President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (IBK) appeared on national TV to resign after a military junta had arrested him, the prime minister and several other members of the administration the day before. Motivated by dissatisfaction of military salaries and political ... Read more »

PRIO Has the Leading Experts on Protests

Posted by Tora Sagård on Monday, 9 March 2020

How does a country’s security apparatus react to a protest movement? And what happens in the aftermath of successful protests? PRIO is conducting three major research projects about protest movements, securing its position as an international leader in this field. In 2019, the world experienced a surge of non-violent protest ... Read more »

Improved Data to Assist in the Prevention and Management of Conflicts

Posted by Julia Kercher, Alexandra Wilde, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Friday, 6 March 2020

Today, the Praia City Group on Governance Statistics is launching its Handbook on Governance Statistics. The Praia Handbook on Governance Statistics provides improved data that can assist in the prevention and management of conflicts. What is the Handbook about? the … handbook is in itself nothing less than a historical ... Read more »

The First Steps in the PRIO-Uppsala Connection: Peter Wallensteen Interviewed by Siri Aas Rustad

Posted by Siri Camilla Aas Rustad on Wednesday, 14 August 2019

Peter Wallensteen, interviewed by Siri Aas Rustad PRIO was the engine of our Nordic peace research network. To ‘go to PRIO’ meant to be updated on the state of the art, to find out what was going on. The ideas generated could then be taken back home and used to ... Read more »

Will There Be Peace in Westeros?

Posted by Siri Camilla Aas Rustad on Friday, 24 May 2019

In my last Game of Thrones blog post I looked into whether there were any similarities between the War of the Five Kings and modern war in the real world. I found a surprisingly large number of similarities. Now that we have seen the end GoT, and we know who ... Read more »

The Clash of Guns and Swords: Game of Thrones and Reality

Posted by Siri Camilla Aas Rustad on Tuesday, 18 December 2018

Are there any similarities between the bloody war in Game of Thrones (GoT) and modern conflicts? The battle fields are certainly quite different, and dragons have very little to do with today’s conflicts (although they may allude to weapons of mass destruction). However, if we look beyond the fighting and ... Read more »

Nobel Peace Prize to Denis Mukwege and Nadia Murad

Posted by Inger Skjelsbæk on Friday, 5 October 2018

The choice to award the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize to Denis Mukwege and Nadia Murad is both timely and wise. The two Nobel laureates embody different dimensions of conflict-related sexual violence. Further, the prize comes at a time when we mark the one-year anniversary of the #metoo movement, when trust ... Read more »

Game of Thrones – the Middle Ages and Today

Posted by Hans Jacob Orning on Tuesday, 14 August 2018

Every generation has its own concept of the Middle Ages. Game of Thrones is a fantasy drama, but it also reflects the present, viewed through the prism of the Middle Ages. From Middle-earth to Westeros Many young people today picture our distant past in a way that is strongly influenced ... Read more »

Producing Reliable Data for SDG 16: The Case of Conflict Data

Posted by Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Wednesday, 1 August 2018

In 2015, the United Nations stated unequivocally in the last progress report for the Millennium Development Goals that “conflict remains the largest obstacle to development”. Yet, reducing conflict and violence in the world was never a target in and of itself under the MDGs. This changed with the inclusion of Goal 16 ... Read more »

U.N. Peacekeeping Really Can Be Effective. Here’s How We Tabulated This

Posted by Håvard Hegre, Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Monday, 16 July 2018

Syria’s seven years of conflict have had devastating consequences, with hundreds of thousands of people dead and more than 4 million refugees. Would the story be different if the United Nations Security Council had managed to come to an agreement and deployed a peacekeeping operation (PKO) early in the conflict? ... Read more »

Fewer Lives Being Lost in Conflicts

Posted by Håvard Strand, Gudrun Østby, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Siri Camilla Aas Rustad & Henrik Urdal on Monday, 25 June 2018

In 2017, approximately 90,000 people died as the direct result of armed conflict. This figure is down for the third year in a row, and is now 31 percent lower than in 2014. Nearly a third of all conflicts – and four of the 10 most serious wars worldwide – ... Read more »

New Education Policy in Burundi Could Halve Teenage Pregnancy

Posted by Philip Verwimp on Friday, 22 June 2018

As of 2014, the Burundi government has pledged that children can continue their basic schooling until grade 9. The fertility impact of this new schooling policy is potentially strong. However, there are three important elements in this story that are less well understood: what will be the magnitude of this ... Read more »

The Long Peace Most Likely Began during the Vietnam War

Posted by Bjarn Røsjø on Wednesday, 6 June 2018

Two statisticians at the University of Oslo have blown a hole in Steven Pinker’s famous theory that the Long Peace dates from 1945 onwards. But Pinker is excited about the new calculations, which suggest that this more peaceful period instead began in 1965 – during the Vietnam War. In his ... Read more »

Norway – The Colonial Power

Posted by Inga Marie Nymo Riseth on Tuesday, 29 May 2018

Imagine this. Close to a small lake, there is a little building. It has stood there for 120 years – ever since your ancestors, who lived off fishing and foraging, built it. Your grandmother brings you to this place to pass your people’s traditions on to you. You go there ... Read more »

New Mapping of Children Affected by Armed Conflict

Posted by Gudrun Østby, Karim Bahgat, Kendra Dupuy, Siri Camilla Aas Rustad, Håvard Strand & Tore Wig on Thursday, 15 February 2018

This weekend, decision-makers from all over the world will come together to discuss current and future security challenges at the Munich Security Conference (MSC), which has become the major global forum for discussion of security policy. At the conference, Save the Children will launch its new report The War on ... Read more »

Towards a More Peaceful World [insert '!' or '?' here]

Posted by Nils Lid Hjort on Thursday, 1 February 2018

Each war is dramatic and horrible and warrants a hundred history books and a thousand songs of sorrow. But it also provides one more data point, along with relevant covariates, to the collection of Tolstoyan war-and-peace data-bases, and statisticians may study the evolution of alleged decreasing violence levels over time. ... Read more »

Grievances, Accommodation, and the Decline of Ethnic Violence

Posted by Lars-Erik Cederman, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch & Julian Wucherpfennig on Friday, 26 January 2018

The finding that violent conflict has declined, especially after the Cold War, has generated a great deal of interest. Much of the initial debate focused on whether the claim itself is correct, but the finding itself seems robust in the sense that that the number and severity of violent conflicts ... Read more »

Education and Systematic Group Inequalities in Nigeria

Posted by Siri Camilla Aas Rustad & Gudrun Østby on Thursday, 14 September 2017

On the night between 14 and 15 April, 2014, 276 girls were kidnapped by Boko Haram from their school in Chibok in Borno State in Northeastern Nigeria. The Islamist terrorist group does not believe that girls should attend school, and these girls were targeted precisely because they were in school. However, conservative views on gender and education is only ... Read more »

Education and Conflict: What the Evidence Says

Posted by Gudrun Østby & Henrik Urdal on Wednesday, 13 September 2017

These are the key conclusions from the first systematical review of the empirical, quantitative literature on the relationship between education and civil conflict. Evidence from 30 statistical studies indicate that Increasing education levels overall have pacifying effects Rapid expansions of higher education is not a threat Education inequalities between groups ... Read more »

Information Technology Can Help Build Peace. This Is How.

Posted by Kristian Hoelscher, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Jason Miklian on Wednesday, 6 September 2017

In a recent episode of the caustic sitcom “Silicon Valley,” the hard-luck start-up protagonists attend a big technology convention. They stumble across an app called PeaceFare, a game that lets players “build peace” on their phones by giving virtual money to virtual homeless people or virtual corn to virtual starving villagers. ... Read more »

Being Policy Relevant in Peace Research means Forecasting

Posted by Håvard Hegre, Nils W. Metternich, Julian Wucherpfennig & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Wednesday, 2 August 2017

Driven by the ever-increasing availability of (big) data, as well as computational power and resources, we are currently witnessing an important academic debate about the promises and pitfalls of predicting social and human behavior. Given its potentially disastrous consequences, the prediction of armed conflict and political violence more generally, not ... Read more »

The East Asian Peace – Two New Books

Posted by Nils Petter Gleditsch on Friday, 12 May 2017

Two books were launched earlier this week from the East Asian Peace (EAP) program at Uppsala University, led by Stein Tønnesson of PRIO and Uppsala University. One is a monograph by the program director, Stein Tønnesson, Explaining the East Asian Peace, the other a volume edited by Elin Bjarnegård & Joakim ... Read more »

Climate, Peace and Security

Posted by Halvard Buhaug on Sunday, 12 February 2017

Despite rapid scientific progress, firm knowledge about the societal consequences of global warming remains limited. What are the implications of climate change for peace and security? Should we expect more wars and more political instability as the world heats up? The real concerns linked to climate change are not about ... Read more »

Democratic Intervention?

Posted by Nils Petter Gleditsch on Tuesday, 15 November 2016

Donald Trump has made statements sceptical of military interventions in the Middle East. This is perhaps a rare piece of good news. Military intervention as a means of building democracy has once again become a hot topic. The Norwegian government has been criticized due to the consequences of the intervention ... Read more »

Myths About War and Violence

Posted by Nils Petter Gleditsch on Monday, 14 November 2016

‘Calculations made by a former president of the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, with the assistance of historians from a number of countries, show that since 3600 BC, the world has known only 292 years of peace. Since 650 BC, there have been 1,656 arms races. Sixteen of them ... Read more »

The Victims of War: Light at the End of the Tunnel?

Posted by Nils Petter Gleditsch on Thursday, 10 November 2016

In making the choice between pessimism and optimism, it may be a risky business to lean on everyday news. Let us rather have a look at figures that reveal more long-term tendencies. Steven Pinker’s book The Better Angels of Our Nature, published in 2011, painted an optimistic picture of mankind ... Read more »

Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2014

Posted by Scott Gates, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal on Friday, 29 April 2016

Headlines from battlefields in Syria, Libya​​, Nigeria, Afghanistan, and Ukraine give the impression that the world is becoming ever more violent. Indeed, since 2013 the number of armed conflicts in the world and the number of battle deaths has risen. Fortunately, the long-term trends nevertheless driving the waning of war ... Read more »

Suicide Bombing ≠ Religious Fervor

Posted by Ragnhild Nordås on Friday, 8 April 2016

Is it just religious fanatics who blow themselves up as suicide bombers? Bernt Hagtvet, Professor of Political Science at the University of Oslo, has been active in the Norwegian media lately, stating that only religion (he focuses mostly on Islam) brings the fervor to commit suicide attacks as part of ... Read more »

In Defence of the Reviled 20th century

Posted by Håvard Strand & Stein Tønnesson on Wednesday, 30 December 2015

The century of peace. The 20th century laid the foundations for what could make our century a century of peace. The 20th century is often referred to as the bloodiest in human history. Towards the end of that century, the historians Eric Hobsbawm, Gabriel Kolko and Niall Ferguson published general ... Read more »

Attacks on Humanitarian Aid Workers: Five New Findings

Posted by Jason Miklian, Kristian Hoelscher & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Tuesday, 1 December 2015

More aid workers are being targeted in violent attacks than ever before, but the roots of humanitarian insecurity have nuanced and surprising causes. Syria. Afghanistan. Mali. Central African Republic. Today’s complex conflicts seem to be defined by insurgents, terrorist groups and other violent actors with ideologies that increasingly disregard the ... Read more »

War is Development in Reverse

Posted by Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Henrik Urdal on Friday, 25 September 2015

The UN’s new Sustainable Development Goals are ready for adoption. For the first time, the UN will measure the incidence of one of the most controversial, but important, development indicators: the amount of armed conflict in the world. On 25 September this year, a UN summit will adopt the new ... Read more »

Institutional Characteristics and Regime Survival: Why Are Semi-Democracies Less Durable than Autocracies and Democracies?

Posted by Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Carl Henrik Knutsen on Monday, 10 August 2015

In Zaïre (currently DR Congo) in 1991, the country’s personalist ruler Mobutu Sese Seko faced popular unrest, army mutinies, and shrinking resources for patronage. Mobutu was seemingly starting to lose his grip on power, which he had held since the mid-1960s. In response, Mobutu ended the decades-long ban on political ... Read more »

The "Resister’s Toolkit"

Posted by Erica Chenoweth on Monday, 29 June 2015

In his article in the May 2015 issue of APSR, Evgeny Finkel makes a splash by arguing that exposure to “selective repression” (such as surveillance, beatings, arrests, and torture) helps dissidents to develop a robust skill set with which to maintain enduring resistance later on. He supports this argument with ... Read more »

The Reality of Firearms Trafficking

Posted by Nic Marsh on Wednesday, 17 June 2015

The film The Lord of War and high profile trial of Victor Bout helped to seal in the public imagination the image of an illicit arms trafficker as being someone who smuggled planeloads of Kalashnikovs around the world and into war zones. Such characters do exist, but the reality of firearms trafficking ... Read more »

Surprising Trends Uncovered in New Homicide Visualization

Posted by Nic Marsh on Thursday, 21 May 2015

PRIO is a partner in a new global homicide monitor that has just been published. Hosted by the  Igarapé Institute in Brazil, the monitor presents counts and estimates of global homicide over the period 2000-2014 and is intended to provoke reflection and stimulate debate. The Monitor reports 437,000 homicides in 2012, the ... Read more »

The Victory of Mustafa Akıncı in Northern Cyprus gives Hope to Turkish Cypriots of a Better Future

Posted by Rebecca Bryant on Monday, 18 May 2015

Northern Cyprus held the second round of its presidential election on 26 April, with Mustafa Akıncı defeating the incumbent President, Derviş Eroğlu. Rebecca Bryant writes on what the result of the election might mean for the people of northern Cyprus and future negotiations with the Greek Cypriot-controlled Republic of Cyprus. She notes ... Read more »

A Climate of Conflicts?

Posted by Halvard Buhaug & Ida Rudolfsen on Thursday, 7 May 2015

Political violence correlates strongly with climate: Civil conflict risk is seven to ten times higher in dry and tropical climates than in continental climate zones. Yet, there is little evidence that climatic variability and change are important in understanding this pattern. The prospect of climate change causing forced migration and ... Read more »

Patterns of Peacemaking

Posted by Isak Svensson & Magnus Lundgren on Thursday, 30 April 2015

When do we see international mediation, and what are the impacts? International mediation is a form of diplomatic intervention aimed at reaching negotiated solutions to armed conflict, political violence and international crises. Used by states, organizations, groups or individuals, mediation continues to be an important form of peacemaking. We outline ... Read more »

Islam and Conflict

Posted by Ida Rudolfsen on Wednesday, 15 April 2015

The number of civil wars worldwide has fallen in recent years, but meanwhile the number of civil wars in Muslim countries is increasing. From early on in the 21st century, we have also seen a marked growth in the number of active groups of Islamist insurgents. The media in Western ... Read more »

The Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict for Development (part 1)

Posted by Scott Gates, Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Wednesday, 8 April 2015

War is a development issue. War kills, and its consequences extend far beyond deaths in battle. Armed conflict often leads to forced migration, long-term refugee problems, and the destruction of infrastructure. Social, political, and economic institutions can be permanently damaged. The consequences of war, especially civil war, for development are ... Read more »

The Fire in the House of Islam

Posted by Nils Petter Gleditsch on Friday, 20 March 2015

Generally speaking, the global map of conflict is increasingly shaped by armed conflicts involving Muslims on one side or the other, or on both. Are Muslim countries particularly belligerent? Is the religion to blame? Despite the numerous items of bad news delivered by the mass media on a daily basis, ... Read more »

Oil and Military Intervention: Are the Conspiracy Theorists Right?

Posted by Kristian Skrede Gleditsch on Wednesday, 4 March 2015

Since wars in oil-producing countries may affect the price of, and access to, oil, the so-called conspiracy theorists may be correct that the presence of oil may be a weighty factor in favour of intervention. When a third-party country intervenes in a civil war, the intervention is usually justified as ... Read more »

The Window of Opportunity Closes in Nigeria

Posted by Ukoha O. Ukiwo & Siri Camilla Aas Rustad on Monday, 16 February 2015

On 14 February, the population of Nigeria, Africa’s largest democracy, were supposed to go to the polls to elect a new president. This election might have proven a watershed in Nigerian history. For the first time, the opposition had a realistic opportunity to take over from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), ... Read more »

Data Challenges in Conflict Research

Posted by Idean Salehyan & Henrik Urdal on Monday, 9 February 2015

Quality data is at the heart of quality research. The scholarly community depends on valid, reliable, and easily accessible data in order to empirically test our theories of social and political processes. Yet quantitative data is not “truth” in an absolute sense, but rather, is a numeric representation of complex ... Read more »

Peacekeeping Works

Posted by Håvard Hegre, Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Thursday, 5 February 2015

An assessment of the effectiveness of UN peacekeeping operations The increase in the deployment of UN ‘blue helmets’ is a key driver of the gradual decline in the number and severity of armed conflicts worldwide since the mid-1990s. This brief summarizes a study that assesses the complete, long-term effectiveness of ... Read more »

More on the Waning of War

Posted by Nils Petter Gleditsch on Tuesday, 27 January 2015

On 22 December I reported in this blog on an article by political science professor Øyvind Østerud 18 December in the leading Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten that attacked Steven Pinker and ‘large parts of peace research’ for using ‘relative numbers’, i.e. numbers weighted by population, to assess long-term trends in the severity ... Read more »

Poor Research or What?

Posted by Nils Petter Gleditsch on Monday, 22 December 2014

A Norwegian political scientist published an article in the Norwegian daily Aftenposten on 17 December where he criticized the ‘waning-of-war’ argument promoted by, among others, Steven Pinker and ‘major parts of peace research’. Curiously, the article was published in the paper’s column for ‘dårlig forskning, flau formidling, kunnskapsløse politiske forslag ... Read more »

Education Creates Peace

Posted by Gudrun Østby, Henrik Urdal & Ida Rudolfsen on Wednesday, 10 December 2014

On 10 December Nobel’s Peace Prize 2014 is awarded to Kailash Satyarthi and Malala Yousafzai. Critical voices have claimed that their work is more about rights activism than promoting peace and that there is no obvious association between education and peace. Research into the causes of war suggests, however, that ... Read more »

Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict

Posted by Scott Gates, Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Wednesday, 17 September 2014

The development consequences of armed conflict are profound and far-reaching. While the direct victims of war understandably receive most attention, the effects of conflict extend far beyond battlefield casualties and refugee camps. Research has shown that conflict affects all aspects of development covered by the Millennium Development Goals, and that ... Read more »

War Breeds War

Posted by Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Monday, 8 September 2014

As a result of civil wars, some of the world’s least developed nations are now further away from achieving the UN’s Millennium Development Goals than they were when the goals were first adopted.  The UN General Assembly adopted the Millennium Development Goals in September 2000. Following lengthy debate, the assembly ... Read more »

Is it Acceptable to Lie for a Good Cause?

Posted by Henrik Urdal on Friday, 5 September 2014

Humanitarian organizations may easily succumb to the temptation to misuse numbers and statistics in order to promote their own causes. Does the end justify the means? Disasters are most dangerous for moms reported Save the Children’s Carolyn S Miles in Huffington Post when presenting the organization’s State of the World’s ... Read more »

The Paradox of 2014

Posted by Erica Chenoweth on Friday, 18 July 2014

In recent weeks, a number of people have asked me whether I think we’re headed for World War III. Maybe it’s the intense media coverage of the centennial of WWI. Maybe it’s all the violence heating up in Israel & Gaza, Iraq, and Ukraine, and wars raging in Syria, Nigeria, ... Read more »

Ukraine and the Role of the Security Forces in Popular Uprisings

Posted by Marianne Dahl, Scott Gates, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Thursday, 12 June 2014

The recent uprising in Ukraine echoes what happened in the earlier Orange Revolution. Much can be learned by comparing these events and looking at similar uprisings in other countries. This comparison clearly shows the important role played by security forces in determining whether brutal repression or successful regime change will follow. ... Read more »

Peace on Earth? The Future of Internal Armed Conflict

Posted by Håvard Hegre & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Thursday, 12 June 2014

The last 20 years have seen a gradual decline in the number and severity of internal armed conflicts worldwide. This trend is partly due to widespread improvements in factors such as education levels, economic diversification, and demographic characteristics. These factors are projected to continue to improve for the remainder of ... Read more »

Climate Change and War

Posted by Nils Petter Gleditsch on Thursday, 17 April 2014

The day after the publication of the latest report from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the effects of climate change, Norwegian daily newspaper Dagsavisen was able to report that Norway’s Minister for Climate and Environment now envisaged a future world with more conflicts. This is in ... Read more »

Violence and Non-Violence in Ukraine

Posted by Marianne Dahl on Monday, 24 February 2014

​​​The Ukrainian opposition is more likely to succeed if its campaign remains primarily non-violent, writes Marianne Dahl, Doctoral Researcher at PRIO. ​This is not the first time that Kiev’s streets have been filled with demonstrators wanting to end Viktor Yanukovych’s days in the presidential palace. In 2004, the Orange Revolution ... Read more »

Why does Democratization Occur in Waves?

Posted by Håvard Hegre on Sunday, 12 January 2014

The ‘Arab Spring’ demonstrated that political transitions tend to occur together in space and time. Samuel Huntington coined the term ‘Waves of democratization’ in his book The Third Wave. The figure above shows that changes to the proportion of the world’s countries that are democracies occurs in spurts. Confirming Huntington’s three waves ... Read more »

Roots of conflict : Don't blame environmental decay for the next war

Posted by Nils Petter Gleditsch & Henrik Urdal on Monday, 22 November 2004

When Wangari Maathai, a Kenyan known for her work in human rights and environmental conservation, including efforts to fight deforestation, won the Nobel Peace Prize last month, many took note that the Nobel Committee had evidently expanded its notion of “peace.” “Peace on earth depends on our ability to secure ... Read more »