Population Size, Concentration, and Civil War: A Geographically Disaggregated Analysis

The paper surveys a set of hypotheses forwarded in the conflict literature regarding the relationship between the size and location of population groups. The hypotheses are tested on a new dataset called ACLED that disaggregates internal conflicts into individual events. The analysis covers 14 countries in Central Africa. The conflict event data are juxtaposed with geographically disaggregated data on populations, distance to capitals, borders, and road networks. The paper develops a statistical method to analyze this type of data. The analysis confirms several of the hypotheses.

www.polarizationandconflict.org