VIEWS: Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System

VIEWS: Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System
Led by Håvard Hegre
Oct 2019 -

​The Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) is a research collaboration between the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) and Uppsala University that brings together three distinct but interrelated research projects: the political Violence Early-Warning System (ViEWS) and the interdisciplinary conflict impacts projects Societies at Risk and ANTICIPATE.

VIEWS and its components are directed by Research Professor Håvard Hegre at the Peace Research Institute Oslo and at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University.

See for details about the research collaboration and a visualization tool.

​The Violence Early-Warning System (ViEWS) is a publicly available, data-driven forecasting system. It generates monthly predictions of the number of fatalities in impending state-based conflict 1-36 months ahead, as well as probabilistic assessments of the likelihood that given conflict thresholds will be met – for each country and 55×55 km location in Africa and the Middle East.

ANTICIPATE at Peace Research Institute Oslo and Societies at Risk at Uppsala University are multi-disciplinary research programs directed by Research Professor Håvard Hegre. They bring together scholars from public health research, economics, political science, peace and conflict research, and natural disaster science to study the impacts of armed conflict on human development. Seeking to provide a comprehensive, forward-looking assessment that allows for well-informed decision-making and anticipatory action, the two programs will focus on six interlinked systems:

  1. Economy

  2. Health

  3. Social psychology

  4. 4Water availability

  5. Forced displacement

  6. Political institutions

The programs will, in close collaboration with each other, pool the insights of specialists from the Peace Research Institute Oslo, Uppsala University, Karolinska Institutet (KI), V-Dem at the University of Gothenburg, the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), International Security and Development Center (ISDC), and the University of Pittsburgh.


Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Petrova, Kristina; Gudlaug Olafsdottir; Håvard Hegre & Elisabeth Gilmore (2023) The ‘conflict trap’ reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways, Environmental Research Letters. DOI:
Hegre, Håvard; Paola Vesco & Michael Colaresi (2022) Lessons from an escalation prediction competition, International Interactions 48(4): 521–554.
Vesco, Paola; Håvard Hegre; Michael Colaresi; Remco Jansen; Adeline Lo; Gregor Reisch & Nils Weidmann (2022) United they stand: Findings from an escalation prediction competition, International Interactions 48(4): 860–896.
Hegre, Håvard; Curtis Bell; Michael Colaresi; Mihai Croicu; Frederick Hoyles; Remco Jansen; Maxine Ria Leis; Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan; David Randahl; Espen Geelmuyden Rød & Paola Vesco (2021) ViEWS 2020: Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System, Journal of Peace Research 58(3): 599–611.
Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Peder Landsverk (2021) Can We Predict Armed Conflict? How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality, International Studies Quarterly 65(3): 660–668.
Hegre, Håvard; Kristina Petrova & Nina von Uexkull (2020) Synergies and Trade-Offs in Reaching the Sustainable Development Goals, Sustainability 12(20): 8729–.
Hegre, Håvard; Mihai Croicu; Kristine Eck & Stina Högbladh (2020) Introducing the UCDP Candidate Events Dataset, Research and Politics 7(3).
Hegre, Håvard; Michael Bernhard & Jan Teorell (2020) Civil Society and the Democratic Peace, Journal of Conflict Resolution 64(1): 32–62.
Rød, Espen Geelmuyden; Carl Henrik Knutsen & Håvard Hegre (2019) The determinants of democracy: a sensitivity analysis, Public Choice. DOI: 10.1007/s11127-019-00742-z.
Hegre, Håvard; Marie Allansson; Matthias Basedau; Michael Colaresi; Mihai Croicu; Hanne Fjelde; Frederick Hoyles; Lisa Hultman; Stina Högbladh; Remco Jansen; Naima Mouhleb; Sayyed Auwn Muhammad; Desirée Nilsson; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Gudlaug Olafsdottir; Kristina Petrova; David Randahl; Espen Geelmuyden Rød; Gerald Schneider; Nina von Uexkull & Jonas Vestby (2019) ViEWS: A political Violence Early-Warning System, Journal of Peace Research 56(2): 155–174.
Hegre, Håvard; Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2019) Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations, The Journal of Politics 81(1): 215–232.

Book Chapter

Hegre, Håvard (2022) Early-warning Systems for Political Violence: How Should We Define our Prediction Targets?, in Taking Stock of Early Warning for Atrocity Prevention. Report from the 2021 Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention. Washington, DC: United States Holocaust Memorial Museum (10–12).

Popular Article

Vesco, Paola; Michael Colaresi & Håvard Hegre (2022) The Results of a Prediction Competition Suggest the Fog of War Can Be Partially Lifted, PRIO Blogs, 30 December.

Report - Other

von Loeben, Sophie; Jana Birner; Kira Vinke; Christoph Gornott; Julia Blocher; Lucas Destrijcker; Benjamin Fischer; Stephanie Gleixner; Håvard Hegre; Lennart Jansen; Bryan Jones; Alexander Kjærum; Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan; Nicole Manger; Thomas Mayer; Julia Tomalka; Paola Vesco; Stefanie Wesch; & Antonia Zvolsky (2022) Moving from Reaction to Action: Anticipating Vulnerability Hotspots in the SahelGeneva, New York: UNHCR.
Hegre, Håvard; Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan; Paola Vesco; James Dale; Mihai Croicu; & David Randahl (2022) Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict: Forecasts for April 2022-March 2025Uppsala: Uppsala University.
Hegre, Håvard; James Dale; David Randahl; Mihai Croicu; Remco Jansen; Paola Vesco; Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan; Peder Landsverk; Maxine Ria Leis; Hannes Mueller; Christopher Rauh; Espen Geelmuyden Rød; Forogh Akbari; Tim Gåsste; & Malika Rakhmankulova (2022) Forecasting FatalitiesUppsala: Uppsala University.

Past Events


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