Securing the Victory? Understanding Dynamics of Short-run and Long-term Success in Popular Uprisings and Democratization

Led by Kristian Skrede Gleditsch
Jul 2018 - Jun 2023

This project seeks to understand why some non-violent uprisings help foster democratization while others do not, and will examine how dissident tactics can help promote transitions to democracy and democratic consolidation.

Nonviolent movements have often succeeded in unseating dictators, but short-term success does not guarantee long-term success. Many initially successful challenges have failed to produce democratic transitions. Movements have often faded away quickly after initial successes, followed by a return to authoritarian rule and increased repression. In other cases, nonviolent movements have fostered strengthened civil society participation and stable democracies.

This project examines how dissidents can promote democratic transitions and consolidation. Whereas existing research often focuses on whether predetermine factors are conducive to democratization, we emphasize the influence of the choices of actors and their consequences. Dissident movements tend to emphasize the importance of their own strategies, forward planning, and choosing the best tactics to engage civil society in order to secure a transition to democracy.

We develop a framework for how actors and choices in nonviolent dissent shape the prospects for democracy. We distinguish between different stages with distinct strategic challenges in pro-democracy campaigns, including the initial contestation, the removal of the dictator and the more long-term phase in the aftermath of a first challenge. The project will allow us to understand the incentives for actors and different social groups to support peaceful democratic competition, as well as practical questions with regards to the specific tactics that can help secure democracy. We apply a multi-method approach, combining statistical analysis of historical data (including new and more detailed information collected by the project), interviews with activists, experiments, as well as simulation to explore the outcomes of theoretical models. This allows us to assess the causes of observed outcomes and evaluate counterfactual questions such as whether different campaign strategies could have been more effective.

Members

Research Groups

Publications

Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Dahl, Marianne & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch (2023) Clouds with silver linings: how mobilization shapes the impact of coups on democratization, European Journal of International Relations. DOI: 10.1177/13540661221143213.

Rivera, Mauricio; Kristian Skrede Gleditsch & Martin Macias (2022) A Double -Edge Sword? Mass Media and Nonviolent Dissent in Autocracies, Political Research Quarterly. DOI: 10.1177/10659129221080921.

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Gudmund Horn Hermansen & Carl Henrik Knutsen (2021) Characterizing and Assessing Temporal Heterogeneity: Introducing a Change Point Framework, with Applications on the Study of Democratization, Political Analysis 29(4): 485–504.

Leon-Ablan, Gabriel; Toke Aidt & Max Satchell (2021) The Social Dynamics of Collective Action: Evidence from the Diffusion of the Swing Riots, 1830–1831, Journal of Politics. DOI: 10.1086/714784.

Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede & Luke Abbs (2021) Ticked off, but scared off? Riots and the fate of nonviolent campaigns, Mobilization 26(1): 21–39.

Dahl, Marianne; Scott Gates; Belen Gonzalez & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch (2021) Accounting for numbers: Group characteristics and the choice of violent and nonviolent tactics, The Economics of Peace and Security Journal 16(1): 5–25.

Cunningham, Kathleen Gallagher; Marianne Dahl & Anne Frugé (2020) Introducing the Strategies of Resistance Data Project, Journal of Peace Research 57(3): 482–491.

Dahlum, Sirianne & Tore Wig (2020) Chaos on Campus: Universities and Mass Political Protest, Comparative Political Studies 54(1): 3–32.

Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Vilde Djuve & Tore Wig (2020) Patterns of Regime Breakdown since the French Revolution, Comparative Political Studies 53(6): 923–958.

Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede (2020) Houston, we have a problem: Enhancing academic freedom and transparency in publishing through post-publication debate, Political Studies Review. DOI: 10.1177/1478929919889309.

Dahlum, Sirianne; Carl Henrik Knutsen & Tore Wig (2019) Who Revolts? Empirically Revisiting the Social Origins of Democracy, Journal of Politics. DOI: 10.1086/704699.

Belgioioso, Margherita; Stefano Costalli & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch (2019) Better the Devil you Know? How Fringe Terrorism can Induce an Advantage for Moderate Nonviolent Campaigns, Terrorism and Political Violence. DOI: 10.1080/09546553.2018.1559836.

Bove, Vincenzo; Mauricio Rivera & Chiara Ruffa (2019) Beyond coups: terrorism and military involvement in politics, European Journal of International Relations. DOI: 10.1177/1354066119866499.

Bartusevičius, Henrikas & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch (2019) A Two-Stage Approach to Civil Conflict: Contested Incompatibilities and Armed Violence, International Organization 73(1): 225–248.

Rød, Espen Geelmuyden; Carl Henrik Knutsen & Håvard Hegre (2019) The determinants of democracy: a sensitivity analysis, Public Choice. DOI: 10.1007/s11127-019-00742-z.

Bormann, Nils-Christian; Lars-Erik Cederman; Scott Gates; Benjamin Graham; Simon Hug; Kaare Strøm & Julian Wucherpfennig (2019) Power Sharing: Institutions, Behavior, and Peace, American Journal of Political Science 63(1): 84–100.

Monograph

Pinckney, Jonathan (2020) From Dissent to Democracy: The Promise and Perils of Civil Resistance Transitions. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Book Chapter

Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede (2020) Advances in Data on Conflict and Dissent, in Deutschmann, Emanuel; Jan Lorenz; Luis G. Nardin; Davide Natalini; & Adalbert F.X. Wilhelm, eds, Computational Conflict Research. New York: Springer (23–41).

Conference Paper

Dahlum, Sirianne; Marianne Dahl; Hanne Fjelde & Ida Rudolfsen (2022) The Dark Side of Mobilisation: Global Evidence on Authoritarian Protests, presented at European Political Science Association, Prague, 24 June 2022.

Dahl, Marianne; Mauricio Rivera & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2021) Defection during dissent and regime transitions, presented at Securing the Victory Workshop, Oslo, 7 December 2021.

Dahl, Marianne & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch (2019) Not a one way street: Coups d'état, civil society mobilization and democratization, presented at State-Citizen Interactions during and after Violence, University College London, 29th – 30th of May.