Conflict Trends

Led by Siri Aas Rustad
Jul 2013 -

PRIO's Conflict Trends project collaborates with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to answer questions relating to the causes, consequences and trends in conflict. The project will contribute to new conflict analyses within areas of public interest, and works to produce thorough and quality based analysis for the MFA. The project builds on the existing competence of PRIO with a strong emphasis on research and new data analysis.

The Center for the Study of Civil War (2003-2013) was engaged in path-breaking research on war and peace. The Conflict Trends project sustains and makes use of the competence and international connections that PRIO has developed. The project also aims to reduce the gap between science and research and to assure that the resources and knowledge obtained are beneficial to the public in general.

Project Themes

The project will focus especially on the following thematic areas in the first phase of the project:

Natural resources and conflict: Both shortages and abundance of resources have increasingly been linked to conflict activity. How will the increased pressure on land and water resources affect conflicts in the world? Natural resources such as oil and diamonds can affect the likelihood of conflict, but also contribute to its prevention. The project focuses the role of industry, and how regional and local conditions can affect the positive potential that natural resources may have on institutional development and distribution of goods.
Youth, development and conflict: Large youth bulges can increase the risk of armed conflicts and regime change. At the same time, youth bulges can have a positive impact on society and contribute to economic growth. The project seeks to obtain increased knowledge on how access to education and work will affect the likelihood of conflict in countries with large youth bulges.
Political change and stability: In the past years, many have warned that democratic institutions have deteriorated in several countries. The project will examine democratic development from different perspectives, and report on statistical trends.
Human costs of conflict: The human costs of conflict often go well beyond those who are killed in direct battle. The project focuses especially on the consequences of conflict on maternal health, and inequality in access to education between women and men, and between groups.

Policy Briefs: Conflict Trends

The aim of the project is to outline short and informative policy brieds within different thematic schemes, while also focusing on more specific, country-based conflicts. In addition to describing the actors and main tendencies in conflict, the notes will include maps with an overview of conflict events, trends in conflict activity over time, and other relevant statistical indicators. The briefs in the Conflict Trends series can be found under the Publications tab below.

Blog: Monitoring South Sudan

The project maintains a blog which monitors the situation in South Sudan.

Members

Research Groups

Publications

Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Thomson, Henry; Karim Bahgat; Henrik Urdal & Halvard Buhaug (2022) Urban Social Disorder 3.0: A global, city-level event dataset of political mobilization and disorder, Journal of Peace Research. DOI: 10.1177/00223433221082991.

Cao, Xun; Theodora-Ismene Gizelis; Anja Shortland & Henrik Urdal (2020) Drought, local public goods, and inter-communal conflicts: Testing the mediating effects of public service provisions, Defence and Peace Economics. DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1855560.

Juárez, Nicolás Corona; Henrik Urdal & Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati (2020) The significance of age structure, education, and youth unemployment for explaining subnational variation in violent youth crime in Mexico, Conflict Management and Peace Science. DOI: 10.1177/0738894220946324.

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Nils Lid Hjort & Celine Marie Løken Cunen (2020) Statistical sightings of better angels: Analysing the distribution of battle-deaths in interstate conflict over time, Journal of Peace Research 57(2): 221–234.

Must, Elise & Siri Aas Rustad (2019) “Mtwara will be the New Dubai”: dashed expectations, grievances, and civil unrest in Tanzania, International Interactions. DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2019.1554569.

Basedau, Matthias; Siri Aas Rustad & Elise Must (2018) Do expectations on oil discoveries affect civil unrest? Micro-level evidence from Mali, Cogent Social Sciences 4: 1–19.

Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Ida Rudolfsen (2016) Are Muslim countries more prone to violence?, Research and Politics 3(2): 1–9.

Buhaug, Halvard; Lars-Erik Cederman & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch (2016) Ulikhet, eksklusjon og borgerkrig [Inequality, Exclusion, and Civil War], Politica 48(1): 12–29.

Gates, Scott & Sukanya Podder (2015) Social Media, Recruitment, Allegiance, and the Islamic State, Perspectives on Terrorism 9(4): 107–116.

Buhaug, Halvard (2015) Climate–conflict research: some reflections on the way forward, WIREs Climate Change 6(3): 269–275.

Tollefsen, Andreas Forø & Halvard Buhaug (2015) Insurgency and Inaccessibility, International Studies Review 17(1): 6–25.

Linke, Andrew; Sebastian Schutte & Halvard Buhaug (2015) Population Attitudes and the Spread of Political Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa, International Studies Review 17(1): 26–45.

Kim, Woosang & Scott Gates (2015) Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China, International Area Studies Review 18(3): 219–226.

Brehm, John & Scott Gates (2015) Bureaucratic Politics Arising from, Not Defined by, a Principal-Agency Dyad, Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory 25(1): 27–42.

Strand, Håvard & Henrik Urdal (2014) Hear nothing, see nothing, say nothing: Can states reduce the risk of armed conflict by banning census data on ethnic groups?, International Area Studies Review 17(2): 167–183.

Buhaug, Halvard; Lars-Erik Cederman & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch (2014) Square Pegs in Round Holes: Inequalities, Grievances, and Civil War, International Studies Quarterly 58(2): 418–431.

Book Chapter

Hillesund, Solveig & Gudrun Østby (2020) Inequality, Identity, and Conflict, in Hampson, Fen Osler; Alpaslan Ozerdem; & Jonathan Kent, eds, Routledge Handbook of Peace, Security and Development. New York: Routledge (213–225).

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Håvard Strand (2020) Safety and Security, in Handbook on Governance Statistics. New York: United Nations (189–220).

Strand, Håvard & Halvard Buhaug (2018) Tracing Armed Conflict over Time: A Reversal of the Recent Decline?, in Backer, David; Ravinder Bhavnani; & Paul Huth, eds, Peace and Conflict 2017. New York: Routledge (16–22).

Strand, Håvard; Henrik Urdal & Isabelle Côté (2018) Ethnic Census-Taking, Instability, and Armed Conflict, in Côté, Isabelle; Monica Duffy Toft; & Matthew I. Mitchell, eds, People Changing Places: New Perspectives on Demography, Migration, Conflict, and the State. New York and London: Routledge (82–101).

Rustad, Siri Aas; Gudrun Østby & Henrik Urdal (2017) Conflicts and the Demographic Transition: Economic Opportunity or Disaster?, in Groth, Hans; & John F. May, eds, Africa's Population: In Search of a Demographic Dividend. Cham, Switzerland: Springer (483–496).

Hendrix, Cullen; Scott Gates & Halvard Buhaug (2016) Environment and Conflict, in Mason, T. David; & Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, eds, What Do We Know About Civil Wars?. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield (231–246).

Strand, Håvard & Halvard Buhaug (2016) Armed Conflict, 1946–2014, in Backer, David; Ravinder Bhavnani; & Paul Huth, eds, Peace and Conflict 2016. New York: Routledge (19–24).

Gleditsch, Nils Petter (2014) Will climate change reverse the trend towards peace?, in Schneckener, Ulrich; Arnulf von Scheliha; Andreas Lienkamp; & Britta Klagge, eds, Wettstreit um Ressourcen. Konflikte um Klima, Wasser und Boden. Berlin: Oekom-Verlag (49–60).

Conference Paper

Strand, Håvard; Natalie M. Dyvesether; Scott Gates & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2019) The Effect of Armed Conflict on Sustainable Development Goals, presented at the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Washington DC, USA, 29 August – 1 September 2019.

PRIO Policy Brief

Østby, Gudrun; Siri Aas Rustad & Andrew Arasmith (2022) Children Affected by Armed Conflict, 1990–2021, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.

Obermeier, Anna Marie (2022) Trends in State-Based Armed Conflict: 1946–2021, Conflict Trends, 4. Oslo: PRIO.

Gjerløw, Haakon & Solomon Negash (2021) The State of Democracy among Norway’s Partner Countries in Development Policy, Conflict Trends, 7. Oslo: PRIO.

Østby, Gudrun; Siri Aas Rustad & Andrew Arasmith (2021) Children Affected by Armed Conflict, 1990–2020, Conflict Trends, 4. Oslo: PRIO.

Haer, Roos; Gudrun Østby; Siri Aas Rustad & Andrew Arasmith (2021) Children at Risk of Being Recruited for Armed Conflict, 1990–2020, Conflict Trends, 6. Oslo: PRIO.

Nagel, Robert; Ragnhild Nordås; Gudrun Østby; Siri Aas Rustad & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2021) Children at Risk of Wartime Sexual Violence, 1990–2019, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.

Pfaff, Katharina; Eric Neumayer & Thomas Plümper (2021) What Affects the Distribution of Protests against Coronavirus Measures?, Conflict Trends, 5. Oslo: PRIO.

Strand, Håvard & Håvard Hegre (2021) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2020, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.

Sagård, Tora (2021) Who Is Likely to Support Terrorism? Testing the Assumptions behind Preventing Violent Extremism (PVE), Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.

Østby, Gudrun; Siri Aas Rustad & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2020) Children Affected by Armed Conflict, 1990–2018, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.

Østby, Gudrun; Siri Aas Rustad & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2020) Children Affected by Armed Conflict, 1990–2019, Conflict Trends, 6. Oslo: PRIO.

Palik, Júlia & Siri Aas Rustad (2020) Conflict Trends in Africa, 1989–2019, Conflict Trends, 5. Oslo: PRIO.

Palik, Júlia; Siri Aas Rustad & Fredrik Methi (2020) Conflict Trends in Asia, 1989–2019, Conflict Trends, 7. Oslo: PRIO.

Jarland, Julie; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Scott Gates; Emilie Hermansen & Vilde Bergstad Larsen (2020) How Should We Understand Patterns of Recurring Conflict?, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.

Rustad, Siri Aas; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Fredrik Methi (2020) Are the Coronavirus Ceasefires Working?, Conflict Trends, 4. Oslo: PRIO.

Palik, Júlia; Siri Aas Rustad; Kristian Berg Harpviken & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2020) Conflict Trends in the Middle East, 1989–2019, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.

Strand, Håvard; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Hegre (2020) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2019, Conflict Trends, 8. Oslo: PRIO.

Rudolfsen, Ida (2019) Non-State Conflicts: Trends from 1989 to 2018, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.

Strand, Håvard; Siri Aas Rustad; Henrik Urdal & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2019) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2018, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.

Hauenstein, Matthew; Madhav Joshi & Jason Quinn (2019) The Status of South Sudan’s 2018 Peace Agreement, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.

Rustad, Siri Aas & Ingrid Vik Bakken (2019) Conflict Trends in Africa, 1989–2018, Conflict Trends, 6. Oslo: PRIO.

Rustad, Siri Aas; Andreas Forø Tollefsen & Scott Gates (2019) The Fall and Rise of the Islamic State (IS), Conflict Trends, 4. Oslo: PRIO.

Palik, Júlia & Siri Aas Rustad (2019) Mediation in the Yemeni Civil War: Actors, Outcomes, and Lessons Learned, Conflict Trends, 5. Oslo: PRIO.

Dyrstad, Karin; Helga Malmin Binningsbø; Thandeka Brigham & Kristin M. Bakke (2018) Transitional Justice: What Do the People Want? Views from the ground in Guatemala, Nepal, and Northern Ireland, Conflict Trends, 11. Oslo: PRIO.

Dupuy, Kendra & Siri Aas Rustad (2018) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2017, Conflict Trends, 5. Oslo: PRIO.

Binningsbø, Helga Malmin & Cyanne Loyle (2018) Justice During Armed Conflict: Trends and Implications, Conflict Trends, 4. Oslo: PRIO.

Kotsadam, Andreas; Gudrun Østby; Siri Aas Rustad; Andreas Forø Tollefsen & Henrik Urdal (2018) Does Aid Reduce Infant Mortality? Local-Level Evidence from Nigeria, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.

Bakken, Ingrid Vik & Siri Aas Rustad (2018) Conflict Trends in Africa, 1989–2017, Conflict Trends, 6. Oslo: PRIO.

Rudolfsen, Ida (2018) Food Insecurity and Unrest, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.

Østby, Gudrun; Siri Aas Rustad & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2018) Children Affected by Armed Conflict, 1990–2017, Conflict Trends, 10. Oslo: PRIO.

Bahgat, Karim; Kendra Dupuy; Gudrun Østby; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand & Tore Wig (2018) Children Affected by Armed Conflict, 1990–2016, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.

Gates, Scott; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Karim Bahgat (2017) Patterns of Attacks on Medical Personnel and Facilities: SDG 3 meets SDG 16, Conflict Trends, 4. Oslo: PRIO.

Tollefsen, Andreas Forø & Elin Marthinussen Gustavsen (2017) Norway and UN Peacekeeping Trends, Conflict Trends, 5. Oslo: PRIO.

Hegre, Håvard; Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2017) Peacekeeping Works: Evaluating the effectiveness of UN peacekeeping operations, Conflict Trends, 6. Oslo: PRIO.

Rustad, Siri Aas & Gudrun Østby (2017) Education and Systematic Group Inequalities in Nigeria, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.

Dupuy, Kendra; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Ida Rudolfsen; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2017) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2016, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.

Bahgat, Karim; Gray Barrett; Kendra Dupuy; Scott Gates; Solveig Hillesund; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand; Henrik Urdal & Gudrun Østby (2017) Inequality and Armed Conflict: Evidence and Policy Recommendations, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.

Gates, Scott; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2016) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2014, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.

Gates, Scott; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Esther Trappeniers (2016) Conflict Recurrence, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.

Paasonen, Kari & Henrik Urdal (2016) Youth Bulges, Exclusion and Instability: The Role of Youth in the Arab Spring, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Michael Weintraub (2016) Rejecting Peace? Legacies of Violence in Colombia, Conflict Trends, 4. Oslo: PRIO.

Dyrstad, Karin; Helga Malmin Binningsbø; Kristin M. Bakke & Arne Henning Eide (2016) Public Support for Peace Agreements: The Cases of Guatemala, Nepal, and Northern Ireland, Conflict Trends, 5. Oslo: PRIO.

Must, Elise & Siri Aas Rustad (2016) Perceptions of Justice and Violent Mobilization: Explaining Petroleum Related Riots in Southern Tanzania, Conflict Trends, 6. Oslo: PRIO.

Dupuy, Kendra; Scott Gates & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2016) State Fragility and Armed Conflict, Conflict Trends, 7. Oslo: PRIO.

Dupuy, Kendra; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Ida Rudolfsen; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2016) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2015, Conflict Trends, 8. Oslo: PRIO.

Nordås, Ragnhild (2015) Civilian Targeting by Militias: The Important Role of States, Conflict Trends, 7. Oslo: PRIO.

Hegre, Håvard; Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Peacekeeping Works: An Assessment of the Effectiveness of UN Peacekeeping Operations, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.

Ukiwo, Ukoha O. & Siri Aas Rustad (2015) Nigeria’s Presidential Election 2015, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.

Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Ida Rudolfsen (2015) Are Muslim Countries More War-Prone?, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.

Svensson, Isak & Magnus Lundgren (2015) Patterns of Peacemaking, Conflict Trends, 4. Oslo: PRIO.

Buhaug, Halvard & Ida Rudolfsen (2015) A Climate of Conflicts?, Conflict Trends, 5. Oslo: PRIO.

Hoelscher, Kristian; Jason Miklian & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Understanding Attacks on Humanitarian Aid Workers, Conflict Trends, 6. Oslo: PRIO.

Hegre, Håvard & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2014) Peace on Earth? The Future of Internal Armed Conflict, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.

Dahl, Marianne; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2014) Ukraine and the Role of the Security Forces in Popular Uprisings, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.

Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2014) Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.

PRIO Paper

Palik, Júlia; Anna Marie Obermeier & Siri Aas Rustad (2022) Conflict Trends in Africa, 1989–2021, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Palik, Júlia; Anna Marie Obermeier & Siri Aas Rustad (2022) Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2021, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Palik, Júlia; Anna Marie Obermeier & Siri Aas Rustad (2022) Conflict Trends in Asia, 1989–2021, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Palik, Júlia; Anna Marie Obermeier & Siri Aas Rustad (2022) Conflict Trends in the Middle East, 1989–2021, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Palik, Júlia; Siri Aas Rustad & Fredrik Methi (2020) Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2019, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Palik, Júlia; Siri Aas Rustad & Fredrik Methi (2020) Conflict Trends in Africa, 1989–2019, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Palik, Júlia; Siri Aas Rustad & Fredrik Methi (2020) Conflict Trends in Asia, 1989–2019, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Joshi, Madhav; Myla Jabilles Leguro; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Stephen Oola & Matthew Hauenstein (2020) The Effect of COVID-19 on Peace Agreement Implementation, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Rustad, Siri Aas; Fredrik Methi; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Govinda Clayton (2020) The Strategic Use of Ceasefires in the Coronavirus Crisis, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Palik, Júlia; Siri Aas Rustad; Kristian Berg Harpviken & Fredrik Methi (2020) Conflict Trends in the Middle East, 1989–2019, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Rustad, Siri Aas (2019) Conflict Trends in Africa, 1989–2018: An Update, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Bahgat, Karim; Halvard Buhaug & Henrik Urdal (2018) Urban Social Disorder: An Update, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Bakken, Ingrid Vik & Siri Aas Rustad (2018) Conflict Trends in Africa, 1946–2017, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Thomas Wheeler & Henrik Urdal (2016) Options for Measuring Conflict Deaths in Goal 16, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Buhaug, Halvard & Jonas Nordkvelle (2014) Climate and conflict: A Comment on Hsiang et al.'s Reply to Buhaug et al., PRIO Paper. Oslo: Peace Research Institute Oslo.

Report - Other

Barakat, Sultan; Siri Aas Rustad; Mona Hedaya; & Sansom Milton (2021) اتجاهات النزاعات في العالم العربي [Conflict Trends in the Arab World, 1946–2019]Doha & Oslo: Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies (CHS) & the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).

Barakat, Sultan; Siri Aas Rustad; Mona Hedaya; & Sansom Milton (2021) Conflict Trends in the Arab World, 1946–2019Doha & Oslo: Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies (CHS) & the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).

Bahgat, Karim; Kendra Dupuy; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand; Henrik Urdal; Gudrun Østby; Gray Barrett; & Solveig Hillesund (2017) Inequality and Armed Conflict: Evidence and Data.

Rustad, Siri Aas; & Karim Bahgat (2016) Nigeria Country StudyOslo: PRIO.