Andreas Forø Tollefsen

Senior Researcher

Email: andreas@prio.org
Mobile phone: (+47) 930 83 003

Research Interests

Conflict-induced migration
Migrant-host interactions
Environmental stress and armed conflict
Development and health consequences of conflict violence
Geospatial data and methods

I am a Human Geographer and my research focuses on the causes and consequences of armed conflict, primarily at the sub-national level using quantitative geospatial data. I am currently leading the Young Researcher Talent project "Geographies of Conflict-Induced Migration (CONMIG)", where we use mixed-methods to understand how different forms of violence and levels of intensity affect forced migration, and to where individuals are likely to flee. I am also part of the TRUST project, where we research attitudinal impacts of refugees on host communities in the global south. I have also worked on the effect of aid on infant mortality rate, the effect of conflict on maternal health and child mortality, the impact of droughts on conflict and land ownership, and how conflict affects the local physical environment.

Much of my work focuses on the use of geospatial data and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for research on the causes and consequences of conflict. I am interested in how to integrate new data sources in new ways, that can enable us to study new research questions, and enable research at a more local geographical level, shifting focus away from the country as the unit of analysis. I am also interested in how to use local geospatial data for forecasting conflict and migration, allowing humanitarian actors better prioritize among areas of operation and prepare for impending emergencies.

Background

Working Experience

Senior Researcher, PRIO, 2016 - present.

Associated Researcher, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI), 2016 - 2019.

Postdoctoral Fellow, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, 2017.

Ph.D. Candidate, Human Geography, University of Oslo, 2011 - 2016.

Researcher, Centre For The Study of Civil War, PRIO, 2010 - 2016.

Research assistant, Centre For The Study of Civil War, PRIO, 2008 - 2010.

Education

Ph.D. in Human Geography, University of Oslo, Defended November 4, 2016. Title of the Dissertation: "Local Dynamics of Civil War". Download here: Tollefsen_PhD_Avhandling.pdf

M.A. in Geography, Norwegian University of Science and Technology and Peace Research Institute, Oslo, 2008 - 2010.

B.A. degree in Geography from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 2005 - 2008.

Awards

Stuart A. Bremer Graduate Travel Award 2009.

Research Groups

Full member:

Associated member:

Violent Organizations

PRIO Departments

Current

Conflict Patterns and Environments

Historical

PRIO Projects

Ongoing:

Finished:

Events

Mon, 10 September 2018 – Conflict Trends Course Opens for Policymakers and Practitioners
Tue, 05 Jun 2018 08:15-14:00 – Securing Health Care of Hidden Populations: The case of Children Born of War
22 - 23 Sep 2016 – Armed Conflict, Maternal- and Child Health, and the Impact of Development Aid in sub-Saharan Africa
Fri, 21 Nov 2014 10:00-13:00 – Armed Conflict and Maternal Health
Fri, 18 Jun 2010 09:00-16:00 – GROW-Net Workshop

PRIO started tracking events online in 2007. This listing is not complete. Past events may be mentioned in our news archive.

All Publications

Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Eklund, Lina; Ole Magnus Theisen; Matthias Baumann; Andreas Forø Tollefsen; Tobias Kuemmerle & Jonas Østergaard Nielsen (2022) Societal drought vulnerability and the Syrian climate-conflict nexus are better explained by agriculture than meteorology, Communications Earth & Environment 3: 1–9.

Vestby, Jonas; Jürgen Brandsch; Vilde Bergstad Larsen; Peder Landsverk & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2022) Predicting (de-)Escalation of Sub-National Violence Using Gradient Boosting: Does It Work?, International Interactions. DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2022.2021198.

Østby, Gudrun; Olga Shemyakina; Andreas Forø Tollefsen; Henrik Urdal & Marijke Verpoorten (2021) Public Health and Armed Conflict: Immunization in Times of Systemic Disruptions, Population and Development Review. DOI: 10.1111/padr.12450.

Linke, Andrew & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2021) Environmental stress and agricultural landownership in Africa, Global Environmental Change 67(102237).

Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2020) Experienced poverty and local conflict violence, Conflict Management and Peace Science 37(3): 323–349.

Østby, Gudrun; Henrik Urdal; Andreas Forø Tollefsen; Andreas Kotsadam; Ragnhild Belbo & Christin Marsh Ormhaug (2018) Organized Violence and Institutional Child Delivery: Micro-Level Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa, 1989–2014, Demography 55(4): 1295–1316.

Kotsadam, Andreas; Siri Aas Rustad; Gudrun Østby; Andreas Forø Tollefsen & Henrik Urdal (2018) Development aid and infant mortality. Micro-level evidence from Nigeria, World Development 105: 59–69.

Wig, Tore & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2016) Local institutional quality and conflict violence in Africa, Political Geography 53: 30–42.

Tollefsen, Andreas Forø & Halvard Buhaug (2015) Insurgency and Inaccessibility, International Studies Review 17(1): 6–25.

Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2013) PostGIS 2.0 og Raster, Kart og Plan 73(3): 159–164.

Tollefsen, Andreas Forø; Håvard Strand & Halvard Buhaug (2012) PRIO-GRID: A Unified Spatial Data Structure, Journal of Peace Research 49(2): 363–374.

Buhaug, Halvard; Kristian Skrede Gleditsch; Helge Holtermann; Gudrun Østby & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2011) It’s the Local Economy, Stupid! Geographic Wealth Dispersion and Conflict Outbreak Location, Journal of Conflict Resolution 55(5): 814–840.

PhD Thesis

Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2016) Local Dynamics of Civil War. PhD thesis, Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.

Monograph

Gerring, John; Brendan Apfield; Tore Wig & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2022) The Deep Roots of Modern Democracy: Geography and the Diffusion of Political Institutions. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Book Chapter

Haugen, Heidi Østbø & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2017) Samfunnsgeografiske metoder [Methods in Human Geography], in Stokke, Kristian; & David Jordhus-Lier, eds, Samfunnsgeografi: En innføring. Oslo: Cappelen Damm Akademisk (63–72).

Master Thesis

Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2010) Weights of Evidence Model and Onset of Civil War - Favourability Analysis and Evaluation. MA thesis, Department of Geography, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim.

Conference Paper

Østby, Gudrun; Henrik Urdal; Andreas Forø Tollefsen; Andreas Kotsadam; Ragnhild Belbo & Christin Marsh Ormhaug (2015) Armed conflict and maternal health care Micro-level evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa., presented at the Annual Convention of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA, 3–6 September.

Tollefsen, Andreas Forø 2011 Rough Rebels and Tough Terrain: A Local Analysis of Inaccessibility and Civil War, presented at 11th Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference, , 27–29 June.

Tollefsen, Andreas Forø 2011 PRIO-GRID: A Unified Spatial Data Structure, presented at Workshop: Using Satellite Images in the Analysis of Conflict and Economic Development, , 9 February.

Tollefsen, Andreas Forø 2010 PRIO-GRID: Quadrat Sampling for Conflict Researchers, presented at Bridge over Troubled Water: Bridging Methodological Innovations with Theory Progress on Civil War, , 8 September.

Tollefsen, Andreas Forø 2009 Predictive Probabilistic Modeling of Conflicts, presented at Peace Science Society (International), , 21 November.

Tollefsen, Andreas Forø 2009 Predictive Probabilistic Modeling of Conflicts using Geographical Information Systems, presented at Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference, , 29 June.

PRIO Policy Brief

Nagel, Robert; Ragnhild Nordås; Gudrun Østby; Siri Aas Rustad & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2021) Children at Risk of Wartime Sexual Violence, 1990–2019, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.

Stai, Nora Kristine; Ida Rødningen; Louise Olsson & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2021) Breaking Down Barriers for Norway’s Deployment of Military Women, GPS Policy Brief, 1. Oslo: PRIO.

Østby, Gudrun; Siri Aas Rustad & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2020) Children Affected by Armed Conflict, 1990–2018, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.

Østby, Gudrun; Siri Aas Rustad & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2020) Children Affected by Armed Conflict, 1990–2019, Conflict Trends, 6. Oslo: PRIO.

Rustad, Siri Aas; Andreas Forø Tollefsen & Scott Gates (2019) The Fall and Rise of the Islamic State (IS), Conflict Trends, 4. Oslo: PRIO.

Østby, Gudrun; Henrik Urdal; Andreas Forø Tollefsen; Andreas Kotsadam; Ragnhild Belbo & Christin Marsh Ormhaug (2018) How Does Organized Violence Affect the Chances of Giving Birth at a Health Facility?, Conflict Trends, 8. Oslo: PRIO.

Kotsadam, Andreas; Gudrun Østby; Siri Aas Rustad; Andreas Forø Tollefsen & Henrik Urdal (2018) Does Aid Reduce Infant Mortality? Local-Level Evidence from Nigeria, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.

Østby, Gudrun; Siri Aas Rustad & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2018) Children Affected by Armed Conflict, 1990–2017, Conflict Trends, 10. Oslo: PRIO.

Tollefsen, Andreas Forø & Elin Marthinussen Gustavsen (2017) Norway and UN Peacekeeping Trends, Conflict Trends, 5. Oslo: PRIO.

Report - External Series

Vestby, Jonas; Andreas Forø Tollefsen; & Halvard Buhaug (2022) Climate and International Migration Flows: A Sensitivity Analysis of Gravity Model Specifications, QuantMig Background Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Gerring, John; Tore Wig; Andreas Forø Tollefsen; & Brendan Apfeld (2018) Harbors and Democracy, V-Dem Working Paper, 70. Gothenburg, Sweden: University of Gothenburg, Varieties of Democracy Institute.

Gustavsen, Elin Marthinussen; & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2018) Norway and UN Peacekeeping Trends, FFI Facts. Kjeller, Norway: Norwegian Defence Research Establishment.

Kotsadam, Andreas; Gudrun Østby; Siri Aas Rustad; Andreas Forø Tollefsen; & Henrik Urdal (2017) Development Aid and Infant Mortality, AidData Working Paper, 39. Williamsburg, VA: AIDDATA - William & Mary.

Gustavsen, Elin Marthinussen; Guro Lien; & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2017) Norsk deltakelse i internasjonale operasjoner 1990–2015 [Norway in international operations 1990-2015], FFI-Rapport, 17. Kjeller, Norway: Norwegian Defence Research Establishment.