Håvard Strand

Senior Researcher

Håvard Strand
Additional position(s):
Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo

Email: hs@prio.org
Work phone: +47 22 54 77 95
Mobile phone: +47 99 62 83 71

Research Interests

My current research focuses on further development of the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset, the relationship between political institutions and armed conflicts, and the relationship between data structures and statistical estimators.

Background

​​Working experience:

1996-2000: Computer Dept., Faculty of Social Sciences, NTNU
2000-2001: Research Assistant, PRIO
2002-2006: Researcher, PRIO (20% position)
2002-2006: Research Fellow, Dept. of Political Science, UiO
2006-:        Senior Researcher, PRIO

Events

PRIO started tracking events online in 2007. This listing is not complete. Past events may be mentioned in our news archive.

All Publications

Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Theisen, Ole Magnus; Håvard Strand & Gudrun Østby (2020) Ethno-political favoritism in maternal health care service delivery: Micro-level evidence from sub-Saharan Africa, 1981–2014, International Area Studies Review 23(1): 3–27.
Hillesund, Solveig; Karim Bahgat; Gray Barrett; Kendra Dupuy; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand; Henrik Urdal & Gudrun Østby (2018) Horizontal inequality and armed conflict: a comprehensive literature review, Canadian Journal of Development Studies 39(4): 463–480.
Strøm, Kaare; Scott Gates; Benjamin Graham & Håvard Strand (2017) Inclusion, Dispersion, and Constraint: Powersharing in the World’s States, 1975–2010, British Journal of Political Science 47(1): 165–185.
Skarstad, Kjersti & Håvard Strand (2016) Do human rights violations increase the risk of civil war?, International Area Studies Review 19(2): 107–130.
Gates, Scott; Benjamin Graham; Yonatan Lupu; Håvard Strand & Kaare Strøm (2016) Power Sharing, Protection, and Peace, The Journal of Politics 78(2): 512–526.
Strand, Håvard & Henrik Urdal (2014) Hear nothing, see nothing, say nothing: Can states reduce the risk of armed conflict by banning census data on ethnic groups?, International Area Studies Review 17(2): 167–183.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Jonas Vestby & Håvard Strand (2014) Peace research – Just the study of war?, Journal of Peace Research 51(2): 145–158.
Hegre, Håvard; Joakim Karlsen; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2013) Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010–2050, International Studies Quarterly 57(2): 250–270.
Østby, Gudrun; Håvard Strand; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Ragnhild Nordås (2013) Gender Gap or Gender Bias in Peace Research? Publication Patterns for Journal of Peace Research 1983–2008, International Studies Perspectives 14(4): 493–506.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2012) Development Consequences of Armed Conflict, World Development 40(9): 1713–1722.
Tollefsen, Andreas Forø; Håvard Strand & Halvard Buhaug (2012) PRIO-GRID: A Unified Spatial Data Structure, Journal of Peace Research 49(2): 363–374.
Strand, Håvard (2011) Deconstructing Civil War: A Rejoinder, Security Dialogue 42(3): 297–302.
Østby, Gudrun; Henrik Urdal; Mohammad Zulfan Tadjoeddin; S. Mansoob Murshed & Håvard Strand (2011) Population Pressure, Horizontal Inequality and Political Violence: A Disaggregated Study of Indonesian Provinces, 1990–2003, Journal of Development Studies 47(3): 377–398.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Mark P. Jones & Håvard Strand (2006) Institutional Inconsistency and Political Instability: Polity Duration, 1800-2000, American Journal of Political Science 50(4): 893–908.
Strand, Håvard; Nils Petter Gleditsch; & Mirjam E. Sørli (2005) Why Is There So Much Conflict in the Middle East?, Journal of Conflict Resolution 49(1): 141–165.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Claire Metelits & Håvard Strand (2003) Posting Your Data: Will You Be Scooped or Will You Be Famous?, International Studies Perspectives 4(1): 89–97.
Strand, Håvard; Mikael Eriksson; Peter Wallensteen; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Margareta Sollenberg (2002) Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A New Dataset, Journal of Peace Research 39(5): 615–637.

PhD Thesis

Strand, Håvard (2007) Political Regimes and Civil War Revisited. PhD thesis, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Oslo.

Book Chapter

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Håvard Strand (2020) Safety and Security, in Handbook on Governance Statistics. New York: United Nations (189–220).
Strand, Håvard & Halvard Buhaug (2018) Tracing Armed Conflict over Time: A Reversal of the Recent Decline?, in Backer, David; Ravinder Bhavnani; & Paul Huth, eds, Peace and Conflict 2017. New York: Routledge (16–22).
Strand, Håvard; Henrik Urdal & Isabelle Côté (2018) Ethnic Census-Taking, Instability, and Armed Conflict, in Côté, Isabelle; Monica Duffy Toft; & Matthew I. Mitchell, eds, People Changing Places: New Perspectives on Demography, Migration, Conflict, and the State. New York and London: Routledge (82–101).
Strand, Håvard & Halvard Buhaug (2016) Armed Conflict, 1946–2014, in Backer, David; Ravinder Bhavnani; & Paul Huth, eds, Peace and Conflict 2016. New York: Routledge (19–24).
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2016) Development Consequences of Armed Conflict, in Pérouse de Montclos, Marc-Antoine; Elizabeth Minor; & Samrat Sinha, eds, Violence, Statistics, and the Politics of Accounting For the Dead. Berlin: Springer (25–45).
Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Håvard Hegre; & Håvard Strand (2009) Democracy and Civil War, in Handbook of War Studies III. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press (155–192).
Strand, Håvard & Scott Gates (2008) Military Intervention, Democratization, and Post-conflict Political Stability, in Resources, Governance and Civil Conflict. Abingdon: (147–162).
Strand, Håvard (2005) Terrorens demokratiparadoks, in Islamistisk Terrorisme. Oslo: (217–238).

Non-refereed Journal Article

Buhaug, Halvard; Scott Gates; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2009) Nils Petter Gleditsch: A Lifetime Achiever, European Political Science 8(1): 79–89.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Mirjam E. Sørli & Håvard Strand (2005) Hva er det med Midtøsten? [What is it about the Middle East], Babylon 3(2): 10–15.
Strand, Håvard; Mirjam E. Sørli & Nils Petter Gleditsch (2005) Hva er det med Midtøsten? [What is it about the Middle East?], Babylon 3(2): 10–15.

Popular Article

Østby, Gudrun; Karim Bahgat; Kendra Dupuy; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand & Tore Wig (2018) New Mapping of Children Affected by Armed Conflict, PRIO blog, 15 February.
Strand, Håvard (2007) Freden lar vente på seg [Peace Remains in Limbo], Aftenposten, 1 October.
Strand, Håvard & Henrik Urdal (2003) Verden fredeligere–men ikke Afrika [The World More Peaceful–But Not Africa], Dagbladet, 10 September.

Conference Paper

Boese, Vanessa Alexandra; Scott Gates; Carl Henrik Knutsen & Håvard Strand (2019) Patterns of authority over space and time, presented at the European Political Science Association Annual Conference, Belfast, United Kingdom, 20–22 June 2019.
Strand, Håvard; Natalie M. Dyvesether; Scott Gates & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2019) The Effect of Armed Conflict on Sustainable Development Goals, presented at the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Washington DC, USA, 29 August – 1 September 2019.
Strand, Håvard; Håvard Hegre; Scott Gates & Marianne Dahl (2012) Why Waves? Global Patterns of Democratization, 1816-2008, presented at 3rd International Conference on Democracy as Idea and Practice, Oslo, 12–13 January 2012.
Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand; Scott Gates & Ranveig D. Flaten (2011) The Conflict Trap, presented at American Political Science Association Annual Meeting., Seattle, WA, October 11, 2011.
Gates, Scott;Hegre, Håvard;Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; & Strand, Håvard 2010 Arab Exceptionalism -- How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to Trust my Secret Police, presented at Peace Science Society (International) , , 21–23 Oct.
Gomsrud, Lars Seland;Gates, Scott; & Strand, Håvard 2009 Surviving the Capitalist Peace: Leaders' Incentives and Economic Freedom, presented at 5th ECPR General Conference, , 10 September.
Strand, Håvard; & Urdal, Henrik 2008 Youth Bulges, Democratic Elections, and Political Instability, presented at 49th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, , 26–29 March.
Hegre, Håvard;Strand, Håvard; & Urdal, Henrik 2008 The Future of Armed Conflict: Predicting the Incidence of Conflict, 2007-2030, presented at 49th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, , 26–29 March.
Hegre, Håvard; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Håvard Strand (2007) Democracy and Civil War, presented at Statsvitenskaplig Fagkonferanse, Trondheim, 3–5 January.
Strand, Håvard; Mark P. Jones; Håvard Hegre & Scott Gates (2007) Democratic Waves? War, New States, and Global Patterns of Democratization, 1800 –2000, presented at Statsvitenskaplig Fagkonferanse, Trondheim, 3–5 March.
Urdal, Henrik & Håvard Strand (2005) Differential Growth, Political Instability and Violent Conflict, presented at the 46th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Honolulu, HI, 1–5 March.
Gates, Scott & Håvard Strand (2004) Modeling the Duration of Civil Wars: Measurement and Estimation Issues, presented at Meeting of the Standing Group on International Relations, the Hauge, 9–11 September.
Jones, Mark; Scott Gates & Håvard Strand (2004) The Escalation Process from Political Instability to War, presented at the 45th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Montreal, 17–20 March.
Strand, Håvard & Scott Gates (2004) Military Intervention, Democratization, and Post-conflict Political Stability, presented at the 45th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Montreal, 17–20 March.
Moses, Jonathan; Jostein Vik; Scott Gates & Håvard Strand (2003) Mini-Skirts, Hula-Hoops and Exchange Rate Regimes: Information Cascades Across Central Banks, presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadeplphia, PA, 28 August.
Strand, Håvard; Håvard Hegre; Scott Gates & Mark P. Jones (2001) On the Shoulders of Giants: A Multi-Dimensional Representation of Political Systems (MIRPS), presented at the Uppsala Conference on Data Collection, Uppsala, 1 January.

PRIO Policy Brief

Strand, Håvard & Håvard Hegre (2021) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2020, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.
Strand, Håvard; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Hegre (2020) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2019, Conflict Trends, 8. Oslo: PRIO.
Strand, Håvard; Siri Aas Rustad; Henrik Urdal & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2019) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2018, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.
Ryland, Reidun; Tora Sagård; Peder Landsverk; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand; Siri Aas Rustad; Govinda Clayton; Claudia Wiehler & Valerie Sticher (2018) The Effects of Ceasefires in Colombian Peace Processes, Conflict Trends, 7. Oslo: PRIO.
Bahgat, Karim; Kendra Dupuy; Gudrun Østby; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand & Tore Wig (2018) Children Affected by Armed Conflict, 1990–2016, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Dupuy, Kendra; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Ida Rudolfsen; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2017) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2016, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.
Bahgat, Karim; Gray Barrett; Kendra Dupuy; Scott Gates; Solveig Hillesund; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand; Henrik Urdal & Gudrun Østby (2017) Inequality and Armed Conflict: Evidence and Policy Recommendations, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2016) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2014, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Dupuy, Kendra; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Ida Rudolfsen; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2016) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2015, Conflict Trends, 8. Oslo: PRIO.
Dahl, Marianne; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2014) Ukraine and the Role of the Security Forces in Popular Uprisings, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2014) Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Strand & Kaare Strøm (2010) Peace and Democracy – Can We Have Both?, CSCW Policy Brief, 3. Oslo: PRIO.
Strand, Håvard & Scott Gates (2008) Lessons Learned from Power-sharing in Africa, CSCW Policy Brief, 8. Oslo: PRIO.

PRIO Paper

Ryland, Reidun; Tora Sagård; Peder Landsverk; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand; Siri Aas Rustad; Govinda Clayton; Claudia Wiehler; Valerie Sticher & David Lander (2018) The Effects of Ceasefires in Philippine Peace Processes, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.
Buhaug, Halvard; Håvard Hegre & Håvard Strand (2010) Sensitivity Analysis of Climate Variability and Civil War, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Report - Other

Palik, Júlia; Håvard Strand; Govinda Clayton; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; & Siri Aas Rustad, eds, (2019) Yemen, Ceasefire Project Country ReportZürich, Switzerland: Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich, and Peace Research Institute in Oslo.
Bahgat, Karim; Kendra Dupuy; Gudrun Østby; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand; & Tore Wig (2018) Children and Armed Conflict: What Existing Data Can Tell UsOslo: PRIO.
Bahgat, Karim; Kendra Dupuy; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand; Henrik Urdal; Gudrun Østby; Gray Barrett; & Solveig Hillesund (2017) Inequality and Armed Conflict: Evidence and Data.
Buhaug, Halvard; Scott Gates; Håvard Hegre; & Håvard Strand (2007) Global Trends in Armed Conflict, Globale Norge - hva nå?. Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Report - External Series

Strand, Håvard; Håvard Hegre; Scott Gates; & Marianne Dahl (2012) Why Waves? Global Patterns of Democratization, Working paper. .
Strand, Håvard; & Marianne Dahl (2011) Defining Conflict-Affected Countries, Background Paper prepared for the Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2011. Paris: UNESCO.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; & Håvard Strand (2010) Consequences of Civil War, Background paper for World Development Report 2011. .

Blog Posts

2021 – A Bad Year for World Peace

Posted by Håvard Strand, Ida Rudolfsen, Marianne Dahl & Gudrun Østby on Thursday, 18 August 2022

After a declining trend since 2014 for the number of people killed in armed conflict, approximately 84,000 people died last year. Since 2014, we have seen a global declining trend for the number of people killed in armed conflict, but in 2021 this trend experienced a sharp reversal. New figures ... Read more »

Improved Data to Assist in the Prevention and Management of Conflicts

Posted by Julia Kercher, Alexandra Wilde, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Friday, 6 March 2020

Today, the Praia City Group on Governance Statistics is launching its Handbook on Governance Statistics. The Praia Handbook on Governance Statistics provides improved data that can assist in the prevention and management of conflicts. What is the Handbook about? the … handbook is in itself nothing less than a historical ... Read more »

Why Open Data?

Posted by Håvard Strand on Tuesday, 22 October 2019

In this second instalment of our blog series marking International Open Access Week, Håvard Strand talks about the importance of open data for the social sciences and for PRIO. Social science research is a collective effort, but with individual rewards through publications, fame and glory. An essential part of this ... Read more »

Producing Reliable Data for SDG 16: The Case of Conflict Data

Posted by Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Wednesday, 1 August 2018

In 2015, the United Nations stated unequivocally in the last progress report for the Millennium Development Goals that “conflict remains the largest obstacle to development”. Yet, reducing conflict and violence in the world was never a target in and of itself under the MDGs. This changed with the inclusion of Goal 16 ... Read more »

Fewer Lives Being Lost in Conflicts

Posted by Håvard Strand, Gudrun Østby, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Siri Camilla Aas Rustad & Henrik Urdal on Monday, 25 June 2018

In 2017, approximately 90,000 people died as the direct result of armed conflict. This figure is down for the third year in a row, and is now 31 percent lower than in 2014. Nearly a third of all conflicts – and four of the 10 most serious wars worldwide – ... Read more »

New Mapping of Children Affected by Armed Conflict

Posted by Gudrun Østby, Karim Bahgat, Kendra Dupuy, Siri Camilla Aas Rustad, Håvard Strand & Tore Wig on Thursday, 15 February 2018

This weekend, decision-makers from all over the world will come together to discuss current and future security challenges at the Munich Security Conference (MSC), which has become the major global forum for discussion of security policy. At the conference, Save the Children will launch its new report The War on ... Read more »

Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2014

Posted by Scott Gates, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal on Friday, 29 April 2016

Headlines from battlefields in Syria, Libya​​, Nigeria, Afghanistan, and Ukraine give the impression that the world is becoming ever more violent. Indeed, since 2013 the number of armed conflicts in the world and the number of battle deaths has risen. Fortunately, the long-term trends nevertheless driving the waning of war ... Read more »

In Defence of the Reviled 20th century

Posted by Håvard Strand & Stein Tønnesson on Wednesday, 30 December 2015

The century of peace. The 20th century laid the foundations for what could make our century a century of peace. The 20th century is often referred to as the bloodiest in human history. Towards the end of that century, the historians Eric Hobsbawm, Gabriel Kolko and Niall Ferguson published general ... Read more »

The Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict for Development (part 1)

Posted by Scott Gates, Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Wednesday, 8 April 2015

War is a development issue. War kills, and its consequences extend far beyond deaths in battle. Armed conflict often leads to forced migration, long-term refugee problems, and the destruction of infrastructure. Social, political, and economic institutions can be permanently damaged. The consequences of war, especially civil war, for development are ... Read more »

Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict

Posted by Scott Gates, Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Wednesday, 17 September 2014

The development consequences of armed conflict are profound and far-reaching. While the direct victims of war understandably receive most attention, the effects of conflict extend far beyond battlefield casualties and refugee camps. Research has shown that conflict affects all aspects of development covered by the Millennium Development Goals, and that ... Read more »

Ukraine and the Role of the Security Forces in Popular Uprisings

Posted by Marianne Dahl, Scott Gates, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Thursday, 12 June 2014

The recent uprising in Ukraine echoes what happened in the earlier Orange Revolution. Much can be learned by comparing these events and looking at similar uprisings in other countries. This comparison clearly shows the important role played by security forces in determining whether brutal repression or successful regime change will follow. ... Read more »

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