Henrik Urdal

Director

Henrik Urdal
Email: urdal@prio.org
Mobile phone: +47 92 04 78 41
Twitter: @h_urdal

Research Interests

'Armed Conflict and Maternal Health in Sub-Saharan Africa', FRIPRO Young Researcher Talent Project, Headed by Gudrun Østby.

'Conflict Trends'. Collaborative project with the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Project Director.

'Youth Exclusion and Political Violence', project funded by the Research Council of Norway (2008-2012).

​'Security Implications of Climate Change', project funded by the Research Council of Norway (2009-2012). Director of sub-project on Urban Violence.


General research interests:
* Demography and political violence
* Climate change, environmental change and armed conflict
* The politics of census-taking
* Demographic consequences of armed conflict

Background

​​​​​​​​​Languages spoken:

Norwegian, English​

Working experience:

2017 - : Director at Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)

2017: Research Director, Conditions of Violence and Peace

2013- Research Professor, PRIO

2011-12  Research Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.

2007- Senior Researcher, Centre for the Study of Civil War, PRIO.

2010 - 2017:  Editor, Journal of Peace Research (JPR). Associate Editor (2006-2010), Editorial Committee Member (2004-2006), Book Review Editor 2004-05.

2002-2006 PhD Candidate and Research Fellow, Centre for the Study of Civil War, PRIO.

2005-06 Visiting Scholar at the East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii.

1999
Investigations Assistant on the 'Population Project', The UN International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), Office of the Prosecutor. The Hague, Netherlands.

1996-98
Secretary General, Socialist Youth League (Sosialistisk Ungdom) of Norway.

1995 (summer)
Research Assistant, Statistics Norway, Division for Social and Demographic Research.

 

Education:

PhD in Political Science, University of Oslo, 2007.

Cand. Polit., Political Science, University of Oslo 2002. Courses in African politics, Statistics, Demography, Institutional theory and Nation, state and nationalism.

Cand. mag., University of Oslo 1995. Courses in Middle East/North African Studies, Demography, Political Science, Economics

Research Groups

Full member:
Associated member:

PRIO Departments

Current
Historical

PRIO Projects

Ongoing:
Finished:

Events

PRIO started tracking events online in 2007. This listing is not complete. Past events may be mentioned in our news archive.

All Publications

Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Thomson, Henry; Karim Bahgat; Henrik Urdal & Halvard Buhaug (2022) Urban Social Disorder 3.0: A global, city-level event dataset of political mobilization and disorder, Journal of Peace Research. DOI: 10.1177/00223433221082991.
Østby, Gudrun; Olga Shemyakina; Andreas Forø Tollefsen; Henrik Urdal & Marijke Verpoorten (2021) Public Health and Armed Conflict: Immunization in Times of Systemic Disruptions, Population and Development Review. DOI: 10.1111/padr.12450.
Thomson, Henry; Halvard Buhaug; Henrik Urdal & Elisabeth Lio Rosvold (2021) Group organization, elections and urban political mobilization in the developing world, Democratization. DOI: 10.1080/13510347.2021.1944117.
Gizelis, Ismene; Steve Pickering & Henrik Urdal (2021) Conflict on the urban fringe: Urbanization, environmental stress, and urban unrest in Africa, Political Geography 86: 102357–.
Kamerlin, Shina Caroline Lynn; David J. Allen; Bas de Bruin; Etienne Derat & Henrik Urdal (2021) Journal Open Access and Plan S: Solving Problems or Shifting Burdens?, Development and Change. DOI: 10.1111/dech.12635.
Cao, Xun; Theodora-Ismene Gizelis; Anja Shortland & Henrik Urdal (2020) Drought, local public goods, and inter-communal conflicts: Testing the mediating effects of public service provisions, Defence and Peace Economics. DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1855560.
Juárez, Nicolás Corona; Henrik Urdal & Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati (2020) The significance of age structure, education, and youth unemployment for explaining subnational variation in violent youth crime in Mexico, Conflict Management and Peace Science. DOI: 10.1177/0738894220946324.
Druce, Philippa; Ekaterina Bogatyreva; Frederik Francois Siem; Scott Gates; Hanna Kaade; Johanne Sundby; Morten Rostrup; Catherine Andersen; Siri Aas Rustad; Andrew Tchie; Robert Mood; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Henrik Urdal & Andrea Sylvia Winkler (2019) Approaches to protect and maintain health care services in armed conflict – meeting SDGs 3 and 16, Conflict and Health 13(2).
Østby, Gudrun; Henrik Urdal & Kendra Dupuy (2018) Does Education Lead to Pacification? A Systematic Review of Statistical Studies on Education and Political Violence, Review of Educational Research. DOI: 10.3102/0034654318800236.
Hillesund, Solveig; Karim Bahgat; Gray Barrett; Kendra Dupuy; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand; Henrik Urdal & Gudrun Østby (2018) Horizontal inequality and armed conflict: a comprehensive literature review, Canadian Journal of Development Studies 39(4): 463–480.
Østby, Gudrun; Henrik Urdal; Andreas Forø Tollefsen; Andreas Kotsadam; Ragnhild Belbo & Christin Marsh Ormhaug (2018) Organized Violence and Institutional Child Delivery: Micro-Level Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa, 1989–2014, Demography 55(4): 1295–1316.
Kotsadam, Andreas; Siri Aas Rustad; Gudrun Østby; Andreas Forø Tollefsen & Henrik Urdal (2018) Development aid and infant mortality. Micro-level evidence from Nigeria, World Development 105: 59–69.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Ragnhild Nordås & Henrik Urdal (2017) Peer Review and Replication Data: Best Practice from Journal of Peace Research, College & Research Libraries 78(3): 267–271.
Gizelis, Theodora-Ismene; Sabrina Karim; Gudrun Østby & Henrik Urdal (2017) Maternal Health Care in the Time of Ebola: A Mixed-Method Exploration of the Impact of the Epidemic on Delivery Services in Monrovia, World Development. DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.04.027.
Østby, Gudrun; Henrik Urdal & Ida Rudolfsen (2016) What Is Driving Gender Equality in Secondary Education? Evidence from 57 Developing Countries, 1970–2010, Education Research International. DOI: 10.1155/2016/4587194.
Chi, Primus Che; Patience Bulage; Henrik Urdal & Johanne Sundby (2015) A qualitative study exploring the determinants of maternal health service uptake in post-conflict Burundi and Northern Uganda, BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth 15(18).
Chi, Primus Che; Henrik Urdal; Odidika U.J. Umeora; Johanne Sundby; Paul Spiegel & Declan Devane (2015) Improving maternal, newborn and women's reproductive health in crisis settings, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2015(8): 1–26.
Chi, Primus Che; Patience Bulage; Henrik Urdal & Johanne Sundby (2015) Perceptions of the effects of armed conflict on maternal and reproductive health services and outcomes in Burundi and Northern Uganda: a qualitative study, BMC International Health and Human Rights 15(7): 1–15.
Buhaug, Halvard; Jonas Nordkvelle; Thomas Bernauer; Tobias Böhmelt; Michael Brzoska; Joshua W. Busby; Antonio Ciccone; Hanne Fjelde; Erik Gartzke; Nils Petter Gleditsch; Jack A. Goldstone; Håvard Hegre; Helge Holtermann; Vally Koubi; Jasmin S. A. Link; Peter Michael Link; Päivi Lujala; John O'Loughlin; Clionadh Raleigh; Jürgen Scheffran; Janpeter Schilling; Todd G. Smith; Ole Magnus Theisen; Richard S. J. Tol; Henrik Urdal & Nina von Uexkull (2014) One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict, Climatic Change 127(3): 391–397.
Strand, Håvard & Henrik Urdal (2014) Hear nothing, see nothing, say nothing: Can states reduce the risk of armed conflict by banning census data on ethnic groups?, International Area Studies Review 17(2): 167–183.
Urdal, Henrik & Primus Che Chi (2013) War and Gender Inequalities in Health: The Impact of Armed Conflict on Fertility and Maternal Mortality, International Interactions 39(4): 489–510.
Hegre, Håvard; Joakim Karlsen; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2013) Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010–2050, International Studies Quarterly 57(2): 250–270.
Buhaug, Halvard & Henrik Urdal (2013) An urbanization bomb? Population growth and social disorder in cities, Global Environmental Change 23(1): 1–10.
Urdal, Henrik & Kristian Hoelscher (2012) Explaining Urban Social Disorder and Violence: An Empirical Study of Event Data from Asian and Sub-Saharan African Cities, International Interactions 38(4): 512–528.
Østby, Gudrun; Henrik Urdal; Mohammad Zulfan Tadjoeddin; S. Mansoob Murshed & Håvard Strand (2011) Population Pressure, Horizontal Inequality and Political Violence: A Disaggregated Study of Indonesian Provinces, 1990–2003, Journal of Development Studies 47(3): 377–398.
Urdal, Henrik; Ole Magnus Theisen; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Halvard Buhaug (2010) Klimakriger? En vurdering av det faglige grunnlaget [Climate Wars? An Assessment of the Scientific Foundation], Norsk Statsvitenskapelig Tidsskrift 26(4): 297–320.
Barakat, Bilal;Paulson, Julia; & Urdal, Henrik (2010) The Youth, Transition, and Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa .
Urdal, Henrik (2008) Population, Resources, and Political Violence: A Subnational Study of India, 1956–2002, Journal of Conflict Resolution 52(4): 590–617.
Raleigh, Clionadh & Henrik Urdal (2007) Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict, Political Geography 26(6): 674–694.
Urdal, Henrik (2006) A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence, International Studies Quarterly 50(3): 607–630.
Urdal, Henrik (2005) People vs. Malthus: Population Pressure, Environmental Degradation, and Armed Conflict Revisited, Journal of Peace Research 42(4): 417–434.
Lyngstad, Torkild Hovde; Helge Brunborg & Henrik Urdal (2003) Accounting for Genocide: How Many Were Killed in Srebrenica?, European Journal of Population 19(3): 229–248.
Knudsen, Are; Henrik Urdal; Astri Suhrke & Nils Petter Gleditsch (2003) Conflict and Development: Framework for a Proposed Research Area: 19–.
Urdal, Henrik & Nils Petter Gleditsch (2002) Ecoviolence? Links Between Population-Growth, Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict in Thomas Homer-Dixon's Work, Journal of International Affairs 56(1): 283–302.

PhD Thesis

Urdal, Henrik (2007) Demography and Domestic Armed Conflict. PhD thesis, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Oslo.

Book Chapter

Urdal, Henrik (2022) Introduction to Lives in Peace Research: The Oslo Stories, in Stein Tønnesson, ed., Lives in Peace Research: the Oslo Stories. Singapore: Springer (xi-xvi).
Urdal, Henrik (2022) Inspiration from a Father: Johan Galtung, in Stein Tønnesson, ed., Lives in Peace Research: the Oslo Stories. Singapore: Springer (1–16).
Strand, Håvard; Henrik Urdal & Isabelle Côté (2018) Ethnic Census-Taking, Instability, and Armed Conflict, in Côté, Isabelle; Monica Duffy Toft; & Matthew I. Mitchell, eds, People Changing Places: New Perspectives on Demography, Migration, Conflict, and the State. New York and London: Routledge (82–101).
Rustad, Siri Aas; Gudrun Østby & Henrik Urdal (2017) Conflicts and the Demographic Transition: Economic Opportunity or Disaster?, in Groth, Hans; & John F. May, eds, Africa's Population: In Search of a Demographic Dividend. Cham, Switzerland: Springer (483–496).
Urdal, Henrik (2017) Peace by Demographic Change, in Bjarnegård, Elin; & Joakim Kreutz, eds, Debating the East Asian Peace. Copenhagen, Denmark: NiAS Press (115–141).
Urdal, Henrik (2017) Peace by Demographic Change, in Bjarnegård, Elin; & Joakim Kreutz, eds, Debating the East Asian Peace. Copenhagen: NIAS Press (115–141).
Malmberg, Bo & Henrik Urdal (2016) Ungdomspucklar och krig [Youth bulges and war], in Björkman, Jenny; & Arne Jarrick, eds, Krig/Fred: Riksbankens Jubileumsfonds Årbok 2016/2017. Stockholm: Makadam Förlag (67–90).
Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Erik Melander & Henrik Urdal (2016) Introduction – Patterns of Armed Conflict Since 1945, in Mason, T. David; & Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, eds, What Do We Know About Civil War?. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield (15–32).
Urdal, Henrik & Primus Che Chi (2015) War and Gender Inequalities in Health, in Gizelis , Theodora-Ismene; & Louise Olsson, eds, Gender, Peace and Security: Implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1325. Abingdon: Routledge (116–137).
Østby, Gudrun & Henrik Urdal (2014) Demographic Factors and Civil War, in Newman, Edward; & Karl R. DeRouen, eds, The Routledge Handbook of Civil Wars. Abingdon & New York: Routledge (131–144).
Buhaug, Halvard; Henrik Urdal & Gudrun Østby (2013) Sustainable Cities: Urbanization and Human Security, in Sygna, Linda; Karen O'Brien; & Johanna Wolf, eds, A Changing Environment for Human Security - Transformative approaches to research, policy and action. London: Routledge (56–66).
Urdal, Henrik (2012) Demography and Armed Conflict: Assessing the Role of Population, in Brown, Graham; & Arnim Langer, eds, Elgar Companion to Civil War and Fragile States. London: Edward Elgar Publishing (139–152).
Urdal, Henrik (2011) Youth Bulges and Violence, in Goldstone, Jack A.; Eric Kauffman; & Monica Duffy Toft, eds, Political Demography: Interests, Conflict, and Institutions. Boulder, CO: Paradigm (117–132).
Urdal, Henrik (2011) Demographic Aspects of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict, in United Nations, ed., Population Distribution, Urbanization, Internal Migration and Development: an International Perspective. New York: United Nations Population Division (243–263).
Urdal, Henrik (2007) The Demographics of Political Violence: Youth Bulges, Insecurity and Conflict, in Too Poor for Peace? Global Poverty, Conflict and Security in the 21st Century. Washington, DC: (90–100).
Urdal, Henrik; Helge Brunborg & Ewa Tabeau (2006) Introduction, in The Demography of Armed Conflict. Berlin: (1–16).

Edited Volume

Tabeau, Ewa; Henrik Urdal; & Helge Brunborg, eds, (2006) The Demography of Armed Conflict. Dordrecht: Springer. International Studies in Population.

Non-refereed Journal Article

Urdal, Henrik; Gudrun Østby & Nils Petter Gleditsch (2014) Journal of Peace Research, Peace Review 26(4): 500–504.
Buhaug, Halvard; Henrik Urdal & Jack S. Levy (2014) 50 Years of Peace Research: An Introduction to the Journal of Peace Research Anniversary Special Issue, Journal of Peace Research 51(2): 139–144.
Urdal, Henrik & Nils Petter Gleditsch (2010) Grønn fred? Nobelkomiteens miljøpriser [Green Peace? The Environmental Prizes of the Nobel Committee], Internasjonal Politikk 68(4): 617–627.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Henrik Urdal (2009) Svar til Neumann [Reply to Neumann], Internasjonal Politikk 67(2): 309–.
Buhaug, Halvard; Scott Gates; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2009) Nils Petter Gleditsch: A Lifetime Achiever, European Political Science 8(1): 79–89.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Henrik Urdal (2008) Om topptidsskrifter i internasjonal politikk [On Top Journals in International Relations], Internasjonal Politikk 66(4): 699–702.
Brunborg, Helge & Henrik Urdal (2005) The Demography of Conflict and Violence: An Introduction, Journal of Peace Research 42(4): 371–374.
Urdal, Henrik (2005) Defusing the Population Bomb: Is Security a Rationale for Reducing Global Population Growth?, Environmental Change and Security Program Report(11): 5–11.

Popular Article

Østby, Gudrun; Olga Shemyakina; Andreas Forø Tollefsen & Henrik Urdal (2022) What happens to childhood vaccine rates in conflict zones? This analysis found some surprises, Monkey Cage at the Washington Post, 3 February.
Østby, Gudrun; Henrik Urdal & Ida Rudolfsen (2014) Utdanning Skaper Fred [Education Creates Peace], Dagsavisen, 10 December.
Urdal, Henrik & Clionadh Raleigh (2007) Skaper klimaendring krig? [Will Climate Change Lead to More War?], Morgenbladet, 1 June.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Henrik Urdal (2004) Roots of Conflict: Don't Blame Environmental Decay for the Next War, The New York Times, 5 December.
Urdal, Henrik & Nils Petter Gleditsch (2004) Roots of Conflict: Don't Blame Environmental Decay for the Next War, International Herald Tribune, 22 November.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Henrik Urdal (2004) Fredspris for treplanting? [Peace Prize for Tree Planting?], Aftenposten, 17 October.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Henrik Urdal (2004) Fredpris for treplanting? [Peace Prize for Planting Trees?], Aftenposten, 17 October.
Strand, Håvard & Henrik Urdal (2003) Verden fredeligere–men ikke Afrika [The World More Peaceful–But Not Africa], Dagbladet, 10 September.

Master Thesis

Urdal, Henrik (2002) The Devil in the Demographics: How Neo-Malthusian Population Pressure and Youth Bulges Influence the Risk of Domestic Armed Conflict. MA thesis, MA thesis, University of Oslo, Department of Political Science, Oslo.

Conference Paper

Østby, Gudrun; Henrik Urdal; Andreas Forø Tollefsen; Andreas Kotsadam; Ragnhild Belbo & Christin Marsh Ormhaug (2015) Armed conflict and maternal health care Micro-level evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa., presented at the Annual Convention of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA, 3–6 September.
Urdal, Henrik; Kristian Hoelscher & Halvard Buhaug (2012) Does Urbanization Lead to More Peace? Rural-Urban Age Structure Differentials and Civil War, presented at The Annual convention of the International Studies Association, San Diego, CA, 1–4 April.
Urdal, Henrik (2012) Town and Country: Climate Change and Expected Urban-Rural Variation in Conflict Patterns, presented at 53rd Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, San Diego, CA, 1–4 April.
Buhaug, Halvard; & Henrik Urdal (2010) An Urbanization Bomb? Population Growth and Social Disorder in Cities, presented at DKNVS 250 Anniversary Conference on Climate Change and Security, Trondheim, 21 June.
Urdal, Henrik (2010) Civil War and Gender Inequalities in Health: The Influence of War on Fertility, presented at International Studies Association Annual Conference, New Orleans, LO, 17 February.
Buhaug, Halvard; & Urdal, Henrik 2010 An Urbanization Bomb? Population Growth and Social Disorder in Cities, presented at Urban Affairs Association, , 10 March.
Buhaug, Halvard & Henrik Urdal (2009) Will Climate Change Lead to more Urban Violence? Urbanization, Urban Environmental Problems, and Social Disorder in Cities, presented at 50th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, New York, NY, 15–18 February.
Malmberg, Bo; & Urdal, Henrik 2009 Demography and the Changing Global Geography of Internal Armed Conflict, presented at 50th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, , 15–18 February.
Urdal, Henrik; & Hoelscher, Kristian 2008 Urban Youth Bulges and Social Disorder: An Empirical Study of Asian and Sub-Saharan African Cities, presented at Conference on ‘Youth Exclusion and Political Violence: Breaking the Link and Engaging Young People Positively in Development’, , 4–5 December.
Urdal, Henrik (2008) Demographic Aspects of Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Armed ConflictThe United Nations Population Division, New York, 21–23 January.
Strand, Håvard; & Urdal, Henrik 2008 Youth Bulges, Democratic Elections, and Political Instability, presented at 49th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, , 26–29 March.
Hegre, Håvard;Strand, Håvard; & Urdal, Henrik 2008 The Future of Armed Conflict: Predicting the Incidence of Conflict, 2007-2030, presented at 49th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, , 26–29 March.
Urdal, Henrik; & Barakat, Bilal 2008 Breaking the Waves? Does Education Mediate the Relationship Between Youth Bulges and Political Violence, presented at 49th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, , 26–29 March.
Østby, Gudrun; Henrik Urdal & S. Mansoob Murshed (2007) Population Pressure, Inequality and Political Violence: A Disaggregated Study of Indonesian Provinces, 1990-2003, presented at Polarization and Conflict, Palma de Mallorca, 10–12 December.
Østby, Gudrun & Henrik Urdal (2007) Population Pressure, Inequality and Political Violence: A Disaggregated Study of Indonesian Provinces, 1990–2003, presented at the 48th Annual Metting of the International Studies Association, Chicago, IL, 28 February – 3 March.
Raleigh, Clionadh & Henrik Urdal (2006) Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict, presented at the 47th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association (ISA), San Diego, CA, 22–25 March.
Urdal, Henrik & Håvard Strand (2005) Differential Growth, Political Instability and Violent Conflict, presented at the 46th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Honolulu, HI, 1–5 March.
Urdal, Henrik & Clionadh Raleigh (2005) Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict, presented at the workshop on ‘Human Security and Climate Change’, Oslo, 22–23 June.
Urdal, Henrik (2004) Demographic Change, Resource Scarcity and Violent Conflict: The Case of India, presented at the 45th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Montreal, 17–20 March.
Urdal, Henrik (2003) People vs Malthus: Population Pressure, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict Revisited, presented at 44th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association (ISA), Portland, 25 February–1 March.
Urdal, Henrik (2002) The Devil in the Demographics: How Youth Bulges Influence the Risk of Domestic Armed Conflict 1950–2000, presented at 43rd Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, New Orleans, 24–27 March, 2002.
Urdal, Henrik (2001) Population Pressure and Domestic Conflict: Assessing the Role of 'Youth Bulges' in the Onset of Conflict 1950-2000, presented at the Fourth Pan-European International Relations Conference, University of Kent, Canterbury, 1 January.
Urdal, Henrik (2001) Population Pressure and Domestic Conflict - Assessing the Role of ‘Youth Bulges’ in Conflict Outbreak 1950-2000, presented at ECPR's Standing Group on International Relations fourth pan-European conference, Canterbury, U.K, 1 September.

PRIO Policy Brief

Strand, Håvard; Siri Aas Rustad; Henrik Urdal & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2019) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2018, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.
Rustad, Siri Aas; Kristian Hoelscher; Andreas Kotsadam; Gudrun Østby & Henrik Urdal (2018) Political Exclusion, Group Inequality and Aid Distribution, Conflict Trends, 9. Oslo: PRIO.
Østby, Gudrun; Henrik Urdal; Andreas Forø Tollefsen; Andreas Kotsadam; Ragnhild Belbo & Christin Marsh Ormhaug (2018) How Does Organized Violence Affect the Chances of Giving Birth at a Health Facility?, Conflict Trends, 8. Oslo: PRIO.
Kotsadam, Andreas; Gudrun Østby; Siri Aas Rustad; Andreas Forø Tollefsen & Henrik Urdal (2018) Does Aid Reduce Infant Mortality? Local-Level Evidence from Nigeria, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.
Dupuy, Kendra; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Ida Rudolfsen; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2017) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2016, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.
Bahgat, Karim; Gray Barrett; Kendra Dupuy; Scott Gates; Solveig Hillesund; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand; Henrik Urdal & Gudrun Østby (2017) Inequality and Armed Conflict: Evidence and Policy Recommendations, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2016) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2014, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Paasonen, Kari & Henrik Urdal (2016) Youth Bulges, Exclusion and Instability: The Role of Youth in the Arab Spring, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.
Dupuy, Kendra; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Ida Rudolfsen; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2016) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2015, Conflict Trends, 8. Oslo: PRIO.
Østby, Gudrun & Henrik Urdal (2011) Education and Conflict: What the Evidence Says, CSCW Policy Brief, 2. Oslo: PRIO.

PRIO Paper

Bahgat, Karim; Halvard Buhaug & Henrik Urdal (2018) Urban Social Disorder: An Update, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Thomas Wheeler & Henrik Urdal (2016) Options for Measuring Conflict Deaths in Goal 16, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.
Urdal, Henrik (2008) Urban Social Disorder in Asia and Africa: Report on a New Dataset, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Report - Other

Bahgat, Karim; Kendra Dupuy; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand; Henrik Urdal; Gudrun Østby; Gray Barrett; & Solveig Hillesund (2017) Inequality and Armed Conflict: Evidence and Data.

Report - External Series

Sakor, Bintu Zahara; & Henrik Urdal (2020) Population and Security Challenges in the Sahel, UNFPA Policy Brief, 1. New York: United Nations Population Fund.
Sakor, Bintu Zahara; & Henrik Urdal (2020) Demographic Change, Insecurity and Human Capital in the Sahel, UNFPA Policy Brief, 2. New York: United Nations Population Fund.
Kotsadam, Andreas; Gudrun Østby; Siri Aas Rustad; Andreas Forø Tollefsen; & Henrik Urdal (2017) Development Aid and Infant Mortality, AidData Working Paper, 39. Williamsburg, VA: AIDDATA - William & Mary.
Østby, Gudrun; & Henrik Urdal (2014) Conflict and Educational Inequality: Evidence from 30 Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, Commissioned report for USAID. USAID.
Urdal, Henrik (2010) The Impact of War on the Health of Women and Men – What Do We Know?, Human Security Report 2010. Oslo.
Østby, Gudrun; & Henrik Urdal (2010) Education and Civil Conflict: A Review of the Quantitative, Empirical Literature, Background paper for the Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2011, The hidden crisis: armed conflict and education. Oslo: UNESCO.
Urdal, Henrik; & Kristian Hoelscher (2009) Urban Youth Bulges and Social Disorder: An Empirical Study of Asian and Sub-Saharan African Cities, Policy Research Working Paper, 110. Washington, DC.
Barakat, Bilal; & Henrik Urdal (2009) Breaking the Waves? Does Education Mediate the Relationship Between Youth Bulges and Political Violence?, Policy Research Working Paper, 114. Washington, DC: The World Bank.
Urdal, Henrik (2004) The Devil in the Demographics: The Effect of Youth Bulges on Domestic Armed Conflict, 1950-2000, Social Development Papers. Washington, DC.

Blog Posts

What Happens to Childhood Vaccine Rates in Conflict Zones? This Analysis Found Some Surprises

Posted by Gudrun Østby, Olga Shemyakina, Andreas Forø Tollefsen, Henrik Urdal & Marijke Verpoorten on Monday, 14 February 2022

We examined more than 200,000 records in 15 African countries. As more coronavirus vaccines begin to reach the developing world, global health authorities are pointing out the need for other vaccines as well. UNICEF recently launched a record $9.4 billion emergency appeal to help more than 327 million people — including 177 million children — affected ... Read more »

Inspiration from a Father: Johan Galtung Interviewed by Henrik Urdal

Posted by Henrik Urdal on Wednesday, 15 May 2019

The Second World War had a lasting effect on me. Especially because my beloved father was imprisoned at Grini (west of Oslo). And we were informed that every time there was a British bombing, prisoners would be shot. So, every night the air raid siren went, my mother and I ... Read more »

Free Access at a High Price

Posted by Henrik Urdal on Thursday, 20 September 2018

Plan S.: PRIO would far rather pay fees to ensure that all our publications in subscription journals are made available via open access than be forced to publish our best research in lower quality journals. The new European Plan S – an open access (OA) policy for research results – ... Read more »

Fewer Lives Being Lost in Conflicts

Posted by Håvard Strand, Gudrun Østby, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Siri Camilla Aas Rustad & Henrik Urdal on Monday, 25 June 2018

In 2017, approximately 90,000 people died as the direct result of armed conflict. This figure is down for the third year in a row, and is now 31 percent lower than in 2014. Nearly a third of all conflicts – and four of the 10 most serious wars worldwide – ... Read more »

Nuclear Disarmament and The Nobel Peace Prize

Posted by Louise Olsson & Henrik Urdal on Tuesday, 10 October 2017

Since the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Linus Pauling in 1962, contributions to nuclear disarmament have recurrently been an explicit motivation for granting the Prize.1 According to the Nobel Peace Prize committee, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) received the Prize this year for creating new momentum ... Read more »

Education and Conflict: What the Evidence Says

Posted by Gudrun Østby & Henrik Urdal on Wednesday, 13 September 2017

These are the key conclusions from the first systematical review of the empirical, quantitative literature on the relationship between education and civil conflict. Evidence from 30 statistical studies indicate that Increasing education levels overall have pacifying effects Rapid expansions of higher education is not a threat Education inequalities between groups ... Read more »

Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2014

Posted by Scott Gates, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal on Friday, 29 April 2016

Headlines from battlefields in Syria, Libya​​, Nigeria, Afghanistan, and Ukraine give the impression that the world is becoming ever more violent. Indeed, since 2013 the number of armed conflicts in the world and the number of battle deaths has risen. Fortunately, the long-term trends nevertheless driving the waning of war ... Read more »

War is Development in Reverse

Posted by Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Henrik Urdal on Friday, 25 September 2015

The UN’s new Sustainable Development Goals are ready for adoption. For the first time, the UN will measure the incidence of one of the most controversial, but important, development indicators: the amount of armed conflict in the world. On 25 September this year, a UN summit will adopt the new ... Read more »

Data Challenges in Conflict Research

Posted by Idean Salehyan & Henrik Urdal on Monday, 9 February 2015

Quality data is at the heart of quality research. The scholarly community depends on valid, reliable, and easily accessible data in order to empirically test our theories of social and political processes. Yet quantitative data is not “truth” in an absolute sense, but rather, is a numeric representation of complex ... Read more »

Education Creates Peace

Posted by Gudrun Østby, Henrik Urdal & Ida Rudolfsen on Wednesday, 10 December 2014

On 10 December Nobel’s Peace Prize 2014 is awarded to Kailash Satyarthi and Malala Yousafzai. Critical voices have claimed that their work is more about rights activism than promoting peace and that there is no obvious association between education and peace. Research into the causes of war suggests, however, that ... Read more »

Is it Acceptable to Lie for a Good Cause?

Posted by Henrik Urdal on Friday, 5 September 2014

Humanitarian organizations may easily succumb to the temptation to misuse numbers and statistics in order to promote their own causes. Does the end justify the means? Disasters are most dangerous for moms reported Save the Children’s Carolyn S Miles in Huffington Post when presenting the organization’s State of the World’s ... Read more »

Roots of conflict : Don't blame environmental decay for the next war

Posted by Nils Petter Gleditsch & Henrik Urdal on Monday, 22 November 2004

When Wangari Maathai, a Kenyan known for her work in human rights and environmental conservation, including efforts to fight deforestation, won the Nobel Peace Prize last month, many took note that the Nobel Committee had evidently expanded its notion of “peace.” “Peace on earth depends on our ability to secure ... Read more »

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