Håvard Hegre

Research Professor

Håvard Hegre
Additional position(s):
Researcher, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Email: Hhegre@prio.org
Mobile phone: 940 33 948

Background

Also see www.viewsforecasting.org -- pages presenting the VIEWS early-warning system, as well as the pages for ANTICIPATE and Societies at Risk.

Working experience

Dag Hammarskiöld Professor in Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University (2013–2022)
Research Professor, PRIO (2005– )
Associate Editor, Journal of Peace Research (2004–2006, 2010– )
Member of Journal of Peace Research editorial committee (1999– )
Member of editorial board Political Science Research and Methods (2012– )
Member of editorial board International Studies Review (2013– )
Researcher, PRIO (1999–2001, 2003–2005)
Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo (2008–2012)
University fellow, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo (2000–2001, 2003–2004)
Economist, The World Bank (2001–2003)
Research Assistant, PRIO (1989, and 1991–1999)
Managing Editor, Journal of Peace Research (1990–91)

Education

  • Dr. Philos in Political Science, University of Oslo (November 2004)

  • Cand.polit. in Political Science, University of Oslo (August 1999)

  • Cand.mag, University of Oslo in Musicology, History of Ideas, Computer Science, and Statistics (1995).

    • Research Groups

    Full member:

    PRIO Departments

    Current
    Historical

    PRIO Projects

    Ongoing:
    Finished:

    Events

    PRIO started tracking events online in 2007. This listing is not complete. Past events may be mentioned in our news archive.

    Recent Publications

    Petrova, Kristina; Gudlaug Olafsdottir; Håvard Hegre & Elisabeth Gilmore (2023) The ‘conflict trap’ reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways, Environmental Research Letters. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb163.
    Vesco, Paola; Michael Colaresi & Håvard Hegre (2022) The Results of a Prediction Competition Suggest the Fog of War Can Be Partially Lifted, PRIO Blogs, 30 December.

    All Publications

    Peer-reviewed Journal Article

    Petrova, Kristina; Gudlaug Olafsdottir; Håvard Hegre & Elisabeth Gilmore (2023) The ‘conflict trap’ reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways, Environmental Research Letters. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb163.
    Hegre, Håvard; Paola Vesco & Michael Colaresi (2022) Lessons from an escalation prediction competition, International Interactions 48(4): 521–554.
    Vesco, Paola; Håvard Hegre; Michael Colaresi; Remco Jansen; Adeline Lo; Gregor Reisch & Nils Weidmann (2022) United they stand: Findings from an escalation prediction competition, International Interactions 48(4): 860–896.
    Hegre, Håvard; Curtis Bell; Michael Colaresi; Mihai Croicu; Frederick Hoyles; Remco Jansen; Maxine Ria Leis; Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan; David Randahl; Espen Geelmuyden Rød & Paola Vesco (2021) ViEWS 2020: Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System, Journal of Peace Research 58(3): 599–611.
    Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Peder Landsverk (2021) Can We Predict Armed Conflict? How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality, International Studies Quarterly 65(3): 660–668.
    Hegre, Håvard; Kristina Petrova & Nina von Uexkull (2020) Synergies and Trade-Offs in Reaching the Sustainable Development Goals, Sustainability 12(20): 8729–.
    Hegre, Håvard; Mihai Croicu; Kristine Eck & Stina Högbladh (2020) Introducing the UCDP Candidate Events Dataset, Research and Politics 7(3): 2.05316802093526E+15–.
    Hegre, Håvard; Mihai Croicu; Kristine Eck & Stina Högbladh (2020) Introducing the UCDP Candidate Events Dataset, Research and Politics 7(3): 2.05316802093526E+15–.
    Hegre, Håvard; Michael Bernhard & Jan Teorell (2020) Civil Society and the Democratic Peace, Journal of Conflict Resolution 64(1): 32–62.
    Rød, Espen Geelmuyden; Carl Henrik Knutsen & Håvard Hegre (2019) The determinants of democracy: a sensitivity analysis, Public Choice. DOI: 10.1007/s1112.
    Hegre, Håvard; Marie Allansson; Matthias Basedau; Michael Colaresi; Mihai Croicu; Hanne Fjelde; Frederick Hoyles; Lisa Hultman; Stina Högbladh; Remco Jansen; Naima Mouhleb; Sayyed Auwn Muhammad; Desirée Nilsson; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Gudlaug Olafsdottir; Kristina Petrova; David Randahl; Espen Geelmuyden Rød; Gerald Schneider; Nina von Uexkull & Jonas Vestby (2019) ViEWS: A political Violence Early-Warning System, Journal of Peace Research 56(2): 155–174.
    Hegre, Håvard; Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2019) Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations, The Journal of Politics 81(1): 215–232.
    Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Julian Wucherpfennig & Nils W. Metternich (2017) Introduction: Forecasting in peace research, Journal of Peace Research 54(2): 113–124.
    Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Ranveig Flaten Ræder (2017) Evaluating the scope and intensity of the conflict trap: A dynamic simulation approach, Journal of Peace Research 54(2): 243–261.
    Hegre, Håvard; Halvard Buhaug; Katherine V. Calvin; Jonas Nordkvelle; Stephanie T. Waldhoff & Elisabeth Gilmore (2016) Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways, Environmental Research Letters 11(5): 054002.
    Hegre, Håvard & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Governance and Conflict Relapse, Journal of Conflict Resolution 59(6): 984–1016.
    Wig, Tore; Håvard Hegre & Patrick M. Regan (2015) Updated data on institutions and elections 1960–2012: presenting the IAEP dataset version 2.0, Research & Politics 2(2): 1–11.
    Buhaug, Halvard; Jonas Nordkvelle; Thomas Bernauer; Tobias Böhmelt; Michael Brzoska; Joshua W. Busby; Antonio Ciccone; Hanne Fjelde; Erik Gartzke; Nils Petter Gleditsch; Jack A. Goldstone; Håvard Hegre; Helge Holtermann; Vally Koubi; Jasmin S. A. Link; Peter Michael Link; Päivi Lujala; John O'Loughlin; Clionadh Raleigh; Jürgen Scheffran; Janpeter Schilling; Todd G. Smith; Ole Magnus Theisen; Richard S. J. Tol; Henrik Urdal & Nina von Uexkull (2014) One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict, Climatic Change 127(3): 391–397.
    Fjelde, Hanne & Håvard Hegre (2014) Political Corruption and Institutional Stability, Studies in Comparative International Development 49(3): 267–299.
    Hegre, Håvard (2014) Democracy and Armed Conflict, Journal of Peace Research 51(2): 159–172.
    Hegre, Håvard; Joakim Karlsen; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2013) Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010–2050, International Studies Quarterly 57(2): 250–270.
    Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2012) Development Consequences of Armed Conflict, World Development 40(9): 1713–1722.
    Hegre, Håvard; Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2011) Simulating the Effect of Peacekeeping Operations 2010–2035, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 6589: 325–332.
    Hegre, Håvard; John R. Oneal & Bruce M. Russett (2010) Trade Does Promote Peace: New Simultaneous Estimates of the Reciprocal Effects of Trade and Conflict, Journal of Peace Research 47(6): 763–774.
    Raleigh, Clionadh; Andrew Linke; Håvard Hegre & Joakim Karlsen (2010) Introducing ACLED: An Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset: Special Data Feature, Journal of Peace Research 47(5): 651–660.
    Raleigh, Clionadh & Håvard Hegre (2009) Population Size, Concentration, and Civil War: A Geographically Disaggregated Analysis, Political Geography 28(4): 224–238.
    Hegre, Håvard (2009) Trade Dependence or Size Dependence?: The Gravity Model of Trade and the Liberal Peace, Conflict Management and Peace Science 26(1): 26–45.
    Østby, Gudrun; Clionadh Raleigh & Håvard Hegre (2009) Poverty and Civil War Events: A Disaggregated Study of Liberia, Journal of Conflict Resolution 53(4): 298–623.
    Hegre, Håvard (2008) Gravitating toward War: Preponderance May Pacify, but Power Kills, Journal of Conflict Resolution 52(4): 566–589.
    Elbadawi, Ibrahim; Håvard Hegre & Gary Milante (2008) Introduction: The Aftermath of Civil War, Journal of Peace Research 45(4): 451–459.
    Hegre, Håvard (2008) Polarization and Interstate Conflict, Journal of Peace Research 45(2): 261–282.
    Elbadawi, Ibrahim & Håvard Hegre (2008) Globalization, Economic Shocks, and Internal Armed Conflict, Defence and Peace Economics 19(1): 37–60.
    Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Mark P. Jones & Håvard Strand (2006) Institutional Inconsistency and Political Instability: Polity Duration, 1800-2000, American Journal of Political Science 50(4): 893–908.
    Sambanis, Nicholas & Håvard Hegre (2006) Sensitivity Analysis of the Empirical Literature on Civil War Onset, Journal of Conflict Resolution 50(4): 508–535.
    Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Kathryn Furlong; Håvard Hegre; Bethany Ann Lacina & Taylor Owen (2006) Conflicts over Shared Rivers: Resource Wars or Fuzzy Boundaries?, Political Geography 25(4): 361–382.
    Furlong, Kathryn; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Håvard Hegre (2006) Geographic Opportunity and Neomalthusian Willingness: Boundaries, Shared Rivers, and Conflict, International Interactions 32(1): 79–108.
    Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Håvard Hegre; Kathryn Furlong; Bethany Ann Lacina & Taylor Owen (2006) Conflict over Shared Rivers: Resource Scarcity or Fuzzy Boundaries, Political Geography 25(4): 361–382.
    Hegre, Håvard (2005) Development and the Liberal Peace, Nordic Journal of Political Economy 31(1): 17–46.
    Hegre, Håvard (2005) Identifying How Trade Matters in Empirical Studies of Interstate Conflict, Conflict Management and Peace Science 22(3): 217–224.
    Hegre, Håvard (2004) Size Asymmetry, Trade, and Militarized Conflict, Journal of Conflict Resolution 48(3): 403–429.
    Hegre, Håvard; Michael Mousseau & John R. Oneal (2003) How the Wealth of Nations Conditions the Liberal Peace, European Journal of International Relations 9(2): 277–314.
    Hegre, Håvard (2002) Trade Decreases Conflict More in Multi-Actor Systems: A Comment on Dorussen, Journal of Peace Research 39(1): 109–114.
    Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Håvard Hegre; Tanja Ellingsen & Scott Gates (2001) Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change and Civil War 1816–1992, American Political Science Review 95(1): 33–48.
    Toset, Hans Petter Wollebæk; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Håvard Hegre (2000) Shared Rivers and Interstate Conflict, Political Geography 19(8): 971–996.
    Hegre, Håvard (2000) Development and the Liberal Peace. What Does It Take to be a Trading State?, Journal of Peace Research 37(1): 5–30.
    Gates, Scott & Håvard Hegre (1999) Evolution in Democracy-War Dynamics, Journal of Conflict Resolution 43(6): 771–792.
    Gates, Scott; Nils Petter Gleditsch; Håvard Hegre & Ranveig Gissinger (1998) Timing the Changes in Political Structures. A New Polity Database, Journal of Conflict Resolution 42(2): 231–242.
    Raknerud, Arvid & Håvard Hegre (1997) The Hazard of War. Reassessing the Evidence of the Democratic Peace, Journal of Peace Research 34(4): 385–404.
    Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Håvard Hegre (1997) Peace and Democracy: Three Levels of Analysis, Journal of Conflict Resolution 41(2): 283–310.

    PhD Thesis

    Hegre, Håvard (2004) The Limits of the Liberal Peace. PhD thesis, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Oslo.
    Hegre, Håvard (2004) The Limits of the Liberal Peace. PhD thesis, Supervisors: Jon Hovi, UiO (defended 6 November 2004. Committee: John R. Oneal, Erik Gartzke, and Knut Midgaard), University of Oslo, Oslo.
    Hegre, Håvard (2004) The Limits of the Liberal Peace. PhD thesis, Supervisors: Jon Hovi and Arvid Raknerud, UiO; Scott Gates, PRIO (submitted March, approved by committee, to be defended 6 November), University of Oslo, Oslo.
    Hegre, Håvard (1999) The Limits of the Liberal Peace. PhD thesis, Oslo.

    Monograph

    Sambanis, Nicholas; Marta Reynal-Querol; Lani Elliott; Anke Hoeffler; Paul Collier & Håvard Hegre (2003) Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy. New York: World Bank Publications. New Policy Research Report.
    Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Håvard Hegre (1995) Nasjonsdata: En Lærepakke. Oslo: PRIO.
    Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Terje Vilno Larsen & Håvard Hegre (1994) Citations to Articles in JPR and by Johan Galtung. Oslo: Journal of Peace Research.

    Book Chapter

    Hegre, Håvard (2022) Early-warning Systems for Political Violence: How Should We Define our Prediction Targets?, in Taking Stock of Early Warning for Atrocity Prevention. Report from the 2021 Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention. Washington, DC: United States Holocaust Memorial Museum (10–12).
    Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2016) Development Consequences of Armed Conflict, in Pérouse de Montclos, Marc-Antoine; Elizabeth Minor; & Samrat Sinha, eds, Violence, Statistics, and the Politics of Accounting For the Dead. Berlin: Springer (25–45).
    Hegre, Håvard & Idunn Kristiansen (2016) Global, State, and Individual Security in Quantitative Conflict Research, in Schlag, Gabi; Julian Junk; & Christopher Daase, eds, Transformations of Security Studies: Dialogues, Diversity and Discipline. New York: Routledge (190–215).
    Hegre, Håvard & Helge Holtermann (2013) Poverty and Conflict, in Brown, Graham K.; & Arnim Langer, eds, Elgar Handbook of Civil War and Fragile States. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing (39–58).
    Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Håvard Hegre; & Håvard Strand (2009) Democracy and Civil War, in Handbook of War Studies III. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press (155–192).
    Hegre, Håvard & Hanne Fjelde (2009) Democratization and Post-Conflict Transitions, in Hewitt, J. Joseph; Jonathan Wilkenfeld; & Ted Robert Gurr, eds, Peace and Conflict 2010. University of Maryland and Boulder: The Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM) (79–90).
    Hegre, Håvard & Hanne Fjelde (2009) Post-Conflict Democracy and Conflict Recurrence, in Hewitt, J. Joseph; Jonathan Wilkenfeld; & Ted Robert Gurr, eds, Peace and Conflict 2010. Boulder: Paradigm Publishers (79–90).
    Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Håvard Hegre (2008) Paqja dhe demokracia [Peace and Democracy], in Midgaard, Knut; & Bjørn Erik Rasch, eds, Demokracia – kushtet dhe pasojat. Prishtina: (279–301).
    Hegre, Håvard; Tanja Ellingsen; Scott Gates & Nils Petter Gleditsch (2005) Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change and Civil War, 1816-1992, in Paul F. Diehl, ed., War: SAGE Library of International Relations. London: SAGE (165–193).
    Hegre, Håvard; Nils Petter Gleditsch; Scott Gates & Tanja Ellingsen (2005) Towards a Democratic Civil Peace, in War. Library of International Relations. London: (165–193).
    Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Håvard Hegre (2004) En globalisert verden – økt kaos eller varig fred? [A Globalized World – Increased Chaos or Lasting Peace], in Jan Arild Snoen, ed., Åpen Verden – Et forsvar for globaliseringen. Oslo: Civitas (251–263).
    Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Håvard Hegre (2004) En globalisert verden – økt kaos eller varig fred? [A Globalized World – Increased Chaos or Lasting Peace?], in Åpen verden. Et forsvar for globaliseringen. Oslo: (250–263).
    Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Håvard Hegre (2004) Fred og demokrati [Peace and Democracy], in Demokrati – vilkår og virkninger. Oslo & Bergen: (293–322).
    Hegre, Håvard (2003) Development and the Liberal Peace: What Does It Take to Be a Trading State?, in Globalization and Conflict. Lanham, MD: (201–228).
    Gissinger, Ranveig; Håvard Hegre & Nils Petter Gleditsch (2003) Globalization and Internal Conflict, in Globalization and Conflict. Lanham, MD: (251–275).
    Hegre, Håvard & Han Dorussen (2003) Extending the Multicountry Model of Trade and Conflict, in Globalization and Conflict. Lanham, MD: (77–102).
    Gates, Scott; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Håvard Hegre (2001) Democracy and Civil Conflict After the Cold War, in Perspectives on Democratic Consolidation in Central and Eastern Europe. New York: (185–194).
    Hegre, Håvard (1994) Journal. En presentasjon av et styringsverktøy, in Det vitenskapelige tidsskrift. Rapport fra en konferanse for vitenskapelige tidsskrifter. TemaNord 1994:574. København: (147–150).

    Non-refereed Journal Article

    Ari, Baris; Kristian Skrede Gleditsch; Håvard Hegre & Tore Wig (2016) Democratization and Civil Conflict, American Political Science Association-Comparative Democratization (APSA-CD) 14(2): 1–7.
    Buhaug, Halvard; Scott Gates; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2009) Nils Petter Gleditsch: A Lifetime Achiever, European Political Science 8(1): 79–89.
    Hegre, Håvard (2008) Svar til Elster [Response to Elster], Nytt Norsk Tidsskrift 25(4): 394–396.
    Hegre, Håvard (2008) Elster på tomgang [Elster on Autopilot], Nytt Norsk Tidsskrift 25(1): 90–93.
    Hegre, Håvard (2005) Identifying How Trade Matters. A Rejoinder, Conflict Management and Peace Science 22(3): 235–237.
    Hegre, Håvard (2004) The Duration and Termination of Civil War [Introduction], Journal of Peace Research 41(3): 243–252.
    Hegre, Håvard & Todd Sandler (2002) Economic Analysis of Civil Wars [Introduction to special issue], Defence and Peace Economics 13(6): 429–433.

    Popular Article

    Vesco, Paola; Michael Colaresi & Håvard Hegre (2022) The Results of a Prediction Competition Suggest the Fog of War Can Be Partially Lifted, PRIO Blogs, 30 December.
    Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Håvard Hegre & Peder Landsverk (2021) Kan vi forutse krig? Studier gir grunn til optimisme [Can we predict conflict? Studies give cause for optimism], Aftenposten, 26 January.
    Hegre, Håvard; Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2020) Norge bør fronte fredsbevarende operasjoner [Norway should support peacekeeing operations], Dagens Næringsliv, 29 February.
    Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Håvard Hegre & Lisa Hultman (2019) U.N. peacekeeping really can be effective. Here’s how we tabulated this, Washington Post, 7 August.
    Hegre, Håvard (2004) De langvarige borgerkrigene [The Duration of Civil Wars], Dagbladet, 17 September.
    Hegre, Håvard (2004) Kampen mot borgerkriger [Fighting Civil Wars], Dagbladet, 8 September.

    Master Thesis

    Hegre, Håvard (1999) The Limits of the Liberal Peace. MA thesis, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Oslo.

    Conference Paper

    Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Sirianne Dahlum & Joakim Karlsen (2015) Forecasting Regime Type, 2014‐2100, presented at International Studies Association Annual Convention, New Orleans, 18–21 February 2015.
    Hegre, Håvard; Carl Henrik Knutsen & Espen Geelmuyden Rød (2012) The Determinants of Democracy: A Sensitivity Analysis, presented at merican Political Science Association Annual Convention, New Orleans, January 9.
    Strand, Håvard; Håvard Hegre; Scott Gates & Marianne Dahl (2012) Why Waves? Global Patterns of Democratization, 1816-2008, presented at 3rd International Conference on Democracy as Idea and Practice, Oslo, 12–13 January 2012.
    Hegre, Håvard; & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv 2012 Governance and Conflict Relapse, presented at International Studies Association Annual Convention, San Diego 1-4 April 2012, , .
    Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand; Scott Gates & Ranveig D. Flaten (2011) The Conflict Trap, presented at American Political Science Association Annual Meeting., Seattle, WA, October 11, 2011.
    Gates, Scott;Hegre, Håvard;Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; & Strand, Håvard 2010 Arab Exceptionalism -- How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to Trust my Secret Police, presented at Peace Science Society (International) , , 21–23 Oct.
    Hegre, Håvard;Hultman, Lisa ; & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv 2010 Evaluating the Conflict Reducing Effects of UN Peace-Keeping Operations, presented at American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, , 1–5 September.
    Hegre, Håvard;Strand, Håvard; & Urdal, Henrik 2008 The Future of Armed Conflict: Predicting the Incidence of Conflict, 2007-2030, presented at 49th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, , 26–29 March.
    Østby, Gudrun;Hegre, Håvard; & Raleigh, Clionadh 2007 Economic Deprivation and Civil War Events: A Disaggregated Study of Liberia, presented at Polarization and Conflict Meeting, , 7–9 June.
    Hegre, Håvard; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Håvard Strand (2007) Democracy and Civil War, presented at Statsvitenskaplig Fagkonferanse, Trondheim, 3–5 January.
    Hegre, Håvard; Ibrahim Elbadawi & Gary Milante (2007) How Civil War Alters the Chances of Democratization and Democratic Stability, presented at Conference on Management of Post-Conflict Transition: The Challenges of Institutional Reform, Khartoum, Sudan, 22–24 January.
    Hegre, Håvard & Joakim Karlsen (2007) Simulating the Evolution of Global Democracy Levels, presented at the 48th International Studies Association conference, Trondheim, 3–5 January.
    Raleigh, Clionadh; Gudrun Østby & Håvard Hegre (2007) Economic Deprivation and Civil War Events: A Disaggregated Study of Liberia, presented at the 48th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Chicago, IL, 28 February–3 March.
    Karlsen, Joakim & Håvard Hegre (2007) Simulating the Evolution of Global Democracy Levels, presented at the 48th Annual Metting of the International Studies Association, Chicago, IL, 28 February–3 March.
    Hegre, Håvard & Hanne Fjelde (2007) Democracy Depraved: Corruption and Institutional Change 1985–2000, presented at Statsvitenskaplig Fagkonferanse, Trondheim, 3–5 January.
    Fjelde, Hanne & Håvard Hegre (2007) Democracy Depraved: Corruption and Institutional Change 1985–2004, presented at the 48th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Chicago, IL, 28 February–3 March.
    Strand, Håvard; Mark P. Jones; Håvard Hegre & Scott Gates (2007) Democratic Waves? War, New States, and Global Patterns of Democratization, 1800 –2000, presented at Statsvitenskaplig Fagkonferanse, Trondheim, 3–5 March.
    Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Lene Siljeholm Christiansen & Håvard Hegre (2007) Democratic Jihad? Military Intervention and Democracy, presented at Post-Conflict Transitions Conference, World Bank, Washington, DC, 30 April–1 May.
    Fjelde, Hanne & Håvard Hegre (2006) Democracy Depraved. Corruption and Institutional Change 1985-2000, presented at the Peace Science Society's Annual Meeting, Columbus, OH, 20 November.
    Raleigh, Clionadh & Håvard Hegre (2005) Introducing ACLED: An Armed Conflict Location and Events Dataset, presented at Disaggregating the Study of Civil War and Transnational Violence, University of California, Institute of Global Conflict and Cooperation, San Diego, CA, March 7–8.
    Hegre, Håvard (2005) Polarization and Interstate Conflict, presented at Polarization and Conflict (PAC) Winter meeting, Milan, 16­–17 December.
    Hegre, Håvard (2005) Gravitating Toward War. The Gravity Model of Trade and the Liberal Peace, presented at the 3rd General Conference of the European Consortium of Political Research, Budapest, 8–10 September.
    Hegre, Håvard & Clionadh Raleigh (2005) Population Size, Concentration, and Civil War. A Geographically Disaggregated Analysis, presented at the Summer Meeting of the Polarization and Conflict Project, Konstanz, Germany, 2–5 June.
    Raleigh, Clionadh & Håvard Hegre (2005) Population Size, Concentration, and Civil War: A Geographically Disaggregated Analysis, presented at the Polarization and Conflict (PAC) Summer Meeting, Konstanz, 2–5 June.
    Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Lene Siljeholm Christiansen & Håvard Hegre (2004) Democratic Jihad? Military Intervention and Democracy, presented at Workshop on 'Democratic Institutions and Processes and Civil War', Centre for Human Security & Centre for the Study of Civil War, Bellagio, Italy, 7–9 June.
    Sambanis, Nicholas & Håvard Hegre (2004) Sensitivity Analysis of the Empirical Literature on Civil War Onset, presented at a meeting of the Polarization and Conflict network, Voksenåsen, Oslo, 2–4 July.
    Hegre, Håvard & Ibrahim Elbadawi (2004) Globalization, Economic Shocks, and Armed Conflict, presented at a conference on ‘Globalization, Territoriality and Conflict’, University of California, San Diego, 16–18 January.
    Christiansen, Lene Siljeholm; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Håvard Hegre (2004) Democratic Jihad? Military Intervention and Democratic, presented at Workshop on 'Democratic Institutions and Processes and Civil War', Bellagio, Italy, 7–9 June.
    Strøm, Kaare & Håvard Hegre (2004) Conceptions of Democracy in the Study of Civil Conflict, presented at the 45th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Montreal, 17–20 March.
    Hegre, Håvard; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Lene Siljeholm Christiansen (2004) Democratic Jihad? Military Intervention and Democracy, presented at Joint Sessions of Workshops, Uppsala, 13–18 April.
    Hegre, Håvard (2004) Refugee Flows and the Spread of Civil War, presented at Resources, Governance Structures, and Civil War, Uppsala, 13–18 April.
    Hegre, Håvard; Lene Siljeholm Christiansen & Nils Petter Gleditsch (2004) Democratic Jihad? Military Intervention and Democracy, presented at 45th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Montreal, 17–20 March.
    Hegre, Håvard (2003) Disentangling Democracy, Development as Determinants of Armed Conflict, presented at the 44th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association (ISA), Portland, OR, 25 February–1 March.
    Hegre, Håvard (2001) Trade, Size Asymmetry, and Militarized Conflict, presented at The 97th Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Fransisco, CA, 30 August.
    Strand, Håvard; Håvard Hegre; Scott Gates & Mark P. Jones (2001) On the Shoulders of Giants: A Multi-Dimensional Representation of Political Systems (MIRPS), presented at the Uppsala Conference on Data Collection, Uppsala, 1 January.
    Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Håvard Hegre (2001) Political Institutions, Globalization, and Conflict, presented at the World Bank Conference on The Economics and Politics of Civil War: Launching the Case-Study Project, Soria Moria Conference Center, Oslo, 11 June.
    Hegre, Håvard (2001) Trade as a War Deterrent, presented at 9th National Conference in Political Science, Klekken, 12 January.

    PRIO Policy Brief

    Strand, Håvard & Håvard Hegre (2021) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2020, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.
    Strand, Håvard; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Hegre (2020) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2019, Conflict Trends, 8. Oslo: PRIO.
    Hegre, Håvard; Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2017) Peacekeeping Works: Evaluating the effectiveness of UN peacekeeping operations, Conflict Trends, 6. Oslo: PRIO.
    Hegre, Håvard; Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Peacekeeping Works: An Assessment of the Effectiveness of UN Peacekeeping Operations, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
    Hegre, Håvard & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2014) Peace on Earth? The Future of Internal Armed Conflict, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
    Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2014) Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.

    PRIO Paper

    Buhaug, Halvard; Håvard Hegre & Håvard Strand (2010) Sensitivity Analysis of Climate Variability and Civil War, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

    Report - Other

    von Loeben, Sophie; Jana Birner; Kira Vinke; Christoph Gornott; Julia Blocher; Lucas Destrijcker; Benjamin Fischer; Stephanie Gleixner; Håvard Hegre; Lennart Jansen; Bryan Jones; Alexander Kjærum; Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan; Nicole Manger; Thomas Mayer; Julia Tomalka; Paola Vesco; Stefanie Wesch; & Antonia Zvolsky (2022) Moving from Reaction to Action: Anticipating Vulnerability Hotspots in the SahelGeneva, New York: UNHCR.
    Hegre, Håvard; Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan; Paola Vesco; James Dale; Mihai Croicu; & David Randahl (2022) Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict: Forecasts for April 2022-March 2025Uppsala: Uppsala University.
    Hegre, Håvard; James Dale; David Randahl; Mihai Croicu; Remco Jansen; Paola Vesco; Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan; Peder Landsverk; Maxine Ria Leis; Hannes Mueller; Christopher Rauh; Espen Geelmuyden Rød; Forogh Akbari; Tim Gåsste; & Malika Rakhmankulova (2022) Forecasting FatalitiesUppsala: Uppsala University.
    Gilmore, Elisabeth; Halvard Buhaug; & Håvard Hegre (2016) Maintaining Security: What Can Be Done to Prevent the Pressures of Climate Change Leading to Conflict?, Climate 2020. Rising to the Challenge. London: United Nations Association - UK.
    Buhaug, Halvard; Scott Gates; Håvard Hegre; & Håvard Strand (2007) Global Trends in Armed Conflict, Globale Norge - hva nå?. Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
    Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Håvard Hegre; & Scott Gates (2004) Towards a Global Civil Peace, background note to the United Nations Foundation. .
    Collier, Paul; Lani Elliott; Håvard Hegre; Anke Hoeffler; Marta Reynal-Querol; & Nicholas Sambanis (2003) Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy, World Bank Policy Research Report, 56793. Washington, DC: World Bank.

    Report - External Series

    Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; & Håvard Hegre (2015) Protracted Conflict and Development in the Arab Region, E/ESCWA/ECRI/2015/2 UNESCWA Trends and Impacts, 4. New York: United Nations.
    Strand, Håvard; Håvard Hegre; Scott Gates; & Marianne Dahl (2012) Why Waves? Global Patterns of Democratization, Working paper. .
    Hegre, Håvard; & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2011) The Governance-Conflict Trap in the ESCWA Region, Background paper for UN study The Governance Deficit and Conflict Relapse in the ESCWA Region, : .
    Chaitani, Youssef ; Håvard Hegre; Vito Intini; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; & Maria Ortiz Perez (2011) The Governance Deficit and Conflict Relapse in the ESCWA Region: An Overview, UN Doc E/ESCWA/ECRI/2011/1, 25 August. Beirut: UN ESCWA.
    Fjelde, Hanne; & Håvard Hegre (2011) Political Corruption and Institutional Stability, Working paper. .
    Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; & Håvard Strand (2010) Consequences of Civil War, Background paper for World Development Report 2011. .
    Collier, Paul; Lisa Chauvet; & Håvard Hegre (2008) The Security Challenge in Conflict-Prone Countries. A Challenge Paper for the Copenhagen Consensus, Copenhagen Consensus Conflicts Challenge Papers. .
    Hegre, Håvard (2008) The Nature and Causes of Violent Conflicts in Africa, Background paper for African Development Report 2008, : .
    Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Lene Siljeholm Christiansen; & Håvard Hegre (2007) Democratic Jihad? Military Intervention and Democracy, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 4242. .

    Blog Posts

    Bias in Economic Models Ignores the Impact of War in Poor Nations

    Posted by Håvard Hegre, Kristina Petrova, Gudlaug Olafsdottir & Elilsabeth A. Gilmore on Friday, 3 February 2023

    New research shows that existing economic forecasting models vastly underestimate the impact of conflict on marginalized countries. National income for war-torn nations like Afghanistan, Niger and Yemen could be up to 50 to 70 per cent lower than existing estimates by the end of the century. When considering what our ... Read more »

    The Results of a Prediction Competition Suggest the Fog of War Can Be Partially Lifted

    Posted by Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi & Håvard Hegre on Friday, 30 December 2022

    We may never be able to eradicate political violence like what is now seen in Ethiopia, or in the deaths and damage wrought around the Colombo region in Sri Lanka. As Plato noted, “Only the dead have seen the end of war”. But a more realistic goal may be within ... Read more »

    Can We Predict Civil War?

    Posted by Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Håvard Hegre & Peder Landsverk on Thursday, 4 February 2021

    Since 2010, almost 700,000 people have been killed as the direct result of warfare. But war kills and injures far more people than those who die directly on the battlefield. War destroys health systems, increases infant mortality, reduces life expectancy, increases poverty, and deprives children of education. If we could ... Read more »

    U.N. Peacekeeping Really Can Be Effective. Here’s How We Tabulated This

    Posted by Håvard Hegre, Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Monday, 16 July 2018

    Syria’s seven years of conflict have had devastating consequences, with hundreds of thousands of people dead and more than 4 million refugees. Would the story be different if the United Nations Security Council had managed to come to an agreement and deployed a peacekeeping operation (PKO) early in the conflict? ... Read more »

    Being Policy Relevant in Peace Research means Forecasting

    Posted by Håvard Hegre, Nils W. Metternich, Julian Wucherpfennig & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Wednesday, 2 August 2017

    Driven by the ever-increasing availability of (big) data, as well as computational power and resources, we are currently witnessing an important academic debate about the promises and pitfalls of predicting social and human behavior. Given its potentially disastrous consequences, the prediction of armed conflict and political violence more generally, not ... Read more »

    The Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict for Development (part 1)

    Posted by Scott Gates, Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Wednesday, 8 April 2015

    War is a development issue. War kills, and its consequences extend far beyond deaths in battle. Armed conflict often leads to forced migration, long-term refugee problems, and the destruction of infrastructure. Social, political, and economic institutions can be permanently damaged. The consequences of war, especially civil war, for development are ... Read more »

    Peacekeeping Works

    Posted by Håvard Hegre, Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Thursday, 5 February 2015

    An assessment of the effectiveness of UN peacekeeping operations The increase in the deployment of UN ‘blue helmets’ is a key driver of the gradual decline in the number and severity of armed conflicts worldwide since the mid-1990s. This brief summarizes a study that assesses the complete, long-term effectiveness of ... Read more »

    Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict

    Posted by Scott Gates, Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Wednesday, 17 September 2014

    The development consequences of armed conflict are profound and far-reaching. While the direct victims of war understandably receive most attention, the effects of conflict extend far beyond battlefield casualties and refugee camps. Research has shown that conflict affects all aspects of development covered by the Millennium Development Goals, and that ... Read more »

    Peace on Earth? The Future of Internal Armed Conflict

    Posted by Håvard Hegre & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Thursday, 12 June 2014

    The last 20 years have seen a gradual decline in the number and severity of internal armed conflicts worldwide. This trend is partly due to widespread improvements in factors such as education levels, economic diversification, and demographic characteristics. These factors are projected to continue to improve for the remainder of ... Read more »

    Democracy, Democratization, and Political Violence

    Posted by Håvard Hegre on Friday, 16 May 2014

    The process of democratization is often violent in the short run, and democratic governments are more constrained in their use of force against insurgents than non-democratic authorities. But are democracies really more prone to political violence than other political systems? This is the theme of a short article published at ... Read more »

    Why does Democratization Occur in Waves?

    Posted by Håvard Hegre on Sunday, 12 January 2014

    The ‘Arab Spring’ demonstrated that political transitions tend to occur together in space and time. Samuel Huntington coined the term ‘Waves of democratization’ in his book The Third Wave. The figure above shows that changes to the proportion of the world’s countries that are democracies occurs in spurts. Confirming Huntington’s three waves ... Read more »

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