Blog Posts
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 28 March 2023
On March 23, the historic process of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) enlargement passed a critical milestone as Finnish President Sauli Niinistö signed into law legislation on accession to the Alliance approved by parliament. In response, the Kremlin merely expressed regret about this development and reiterated the absence of any ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 21 March 2023
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Moscow, which started yesterday and is expected to go for three days, is certain to be rich in pomp and ceremony. Yet, its content remains rather uncertain. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in most cordial terms, invited his Chinese counterpart during their video conversation ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 20 March 2023
Taiwan is where Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s economic underperformance overlap and produce a dangerous resonance. The war may be far away from Taipei, but it brings material problems, like delays in deliveries of U.S. armaments, and disturbing changes in the regional security environment. The end of China’s fast-paced economic growth ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 14 March 2023
The Russian army’s ongoing struggle to capture Bakhmut might appear to be primarily a tactical episode in the larger geo-strategic picture of Russia’s war against Ukraine. However, it also affects the key political interactions shaping this picture, including the formally cordial, but in fact rather uneasy, relations between Moscow and ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 6 March 2023
Against the backdrop of the grisly Russia-Ukraine war, the security situation in East Asia may appear conducive to the continuation of the long peace that the region has enjoyed for decades. However, the devastating European war has cast a long shadow eastwards. While Russia’s military presence in Asia is deeply ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 28 February 2023
As the one-year mark of President Vladimir Putin’s disastrous war against Ukraine neared, the Russian army failed to score anything resembling even a minor victory to provide the Russian leader with a talking point for his public performances. In his address to the Federal Assembly on February 21, Putin said ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 22 February 2023
As the one-year mark approaches, the Russo-Ukrainian war shows little movement along the battle lines but plenty of action along the political dimension, which may be approaching a culmination point. First came the meeting of Ukraine’s key supporters in the Ramstein format; then the meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 2 February 2023
The broad coalition built last week for supplying main battle tanks to Ukraine signifies a new surge in strengthening the unity of the US-led Western alliance, and Russia has had no response to this upgrade. It will take a few months to train and equip new armored battalions in the ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 27 January 2023
Two events of profound, and maybe even decisive, importance for the outcome of the Ukraine war happened last week: the Davos gathering of the World Economic Forum and the meeting of top defense officials from some 50 members of the Western coalition at the Ramstein air base in Germany. Russian ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 20 January 2023
Combat operations in Ukraine have largely contracted to a 10-mile battleground between Bakhmut and Soledar. During this fierce fighting, the command structure of Russia’s “special military operation” was suddenly upgraded on January 11. General Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian General Staff, is now in charge, and the previous ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 18 January 2023
No cease-fire can possibly mute artillery barrages in Donbas, but the intensity of political battles exceeds the intensity of this cannonade. Russian stubborn and costly attacks on Bakhmut may yield only tactical success, but in geo-strategic terms, it is the shift in Western positions on supplying heavy arms to Ukraine ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 11 January 2023
It was a striking image for a traditional season of joy and hope: Russian President Vladimir Putin attending the Orthodox Christmas service all alone in one of the Kremlin’s cathedrals. This loneliness stands in contrast with his persistent attempts to show himself actively engaging with subordinates, particularly servicemen — for ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 4 January 2023
The new year of cheerful celebrations and renewed hopes has failed to arrive in Russia, which is sinking deeper into the vortex of President Vladimir Putin’s devastating war against Ukraine. Putin has duly delivered his traditional New Year’s message, emphasizing the sacred duty of defending the motherland (Meduza, December 31). ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 21 December 2022
Bold and unpredictable maneuvers are supposed to be the trademark political style of Russian President Vladimir Putin; last week, however, he surprised observers of various persuasions not with a proactive move but with an unusual act of avoidance. Putin’s annual marathon end-of-the-year press conference has been canceled, as has the ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 14 December 2022
On December 5, two Ukrainian strikes on Russian air bases deep into Russian territory and far from the frontlines produced a painful shock for Russian forces and could signify a further mutation, if not escalation, of the war. Each time Ukrainian forces deliver a long-range high-precision attack — from the ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 6 December 2022
The enforcement of the price ceiling for Russian oil transported by sea enacted on December 5 is not a surprise, as this measure was being discussed by the Unites States and its key partners as early as September 2022. It is, nevertheless, important proof of the Western coalition’s undiminished resolve ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 30 November 2022
The 2022 World Cup has been dominating global news, and no one is missing the Russian team among the 32 participating nations, unlike, for instance, Italy or Egypt. Neither has Moscow said anything regarding the controversies surrounding this paramount sporting event in Qatar (Novayagazeta,eu, November 25). This absence from a ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 22 November 2022
Global governance was tested at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia on November 15-16 by the urgent need to produce responses to many problems – from food insecurity to natural disasters caused by climate change – and the outcome could be marked as satisfactory. Multiple divisions were negotiated by 16 ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 16 November 2022
The liberation of Kherson by Ukrainian forces on November 11 was both predictable and surprising. The strategic imperative for withdrawing Russian troops from the indefensible position along the west side of the Dnipro River had been abundantly clear long before the “difficult decision” presented by the commander of Russian forces ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 10 November 2022
The G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, scheduled for November 15–16, certainly presents attractive prospects for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who needs to re-assert his place among the world’s most influential leaders. However, he has yet to confirm his travel plans and not purely out of concern about affronts from the ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 1 November 2022
The Valdai Club’s annual conference used to be a gala gathering of Western and international experts who appreciated direct access to Russian elites and expected to hear about new trends and ambitions in Moscow’s foreign policy from the traditional speech given by President Vladimir Putin. This year, few veterans opted ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 25 October 2022
Destroying the unfair West-dominated and US-led world order has been an emphatically declared goal of Russia’s “special operation” in Ukraine, and a massive amount of information resources has been spent on mobilizing support for this cause in the Global South. President Vladimir Putin has personally led this propaganda offensive condemning ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 19 October 2022
Fast-moving developments in various tactical battlefields of Russia’s war against Ukraine have notably slowed during the past week, and Moscow is actively seeking to prolong this procrastination. President Vladimir Putin, traveling to Astana, Kazakhstan, for a convalescence of several summits, sought to alter his hawkish narrative and downplay the “unpleasant” ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 12 October 2022
On October 7, celebrations in Russia for President Vladimir Putin’s 70th birthday were rather muted and distinctly half-hearted. For the big day, Putin opted to stage an informal gathering of six leaders from post-Soviet states — Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan — in St. Petersburg. The formal meeting of ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Sunday, 9 October 2022
The Norwegian Nobel Committee had to make an exceedingly difficult decision this year. At a time of war raging in Europe, was the proposition of a peace prize even relevant? Ukraine is certainly fighting a just war and deserves every measure of support that the global West can muster, but ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 28 September 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s September 21st address to the nation could prove to be one of his most fateful blunders in his disastrous war in Ukraine. In his 15-minute pre-recorded speech, Putin announced support for the referendums in four Ukrainian regions, declared partial mobilization in Russia, accused the West of ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 19 September 2022
Samarkand didn’t go well for President Vladimir Putin. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit hosted by Uzbekistan in this ancient city gathered many leaders of various Eurasian states, from Belarus to Mongolia, but it was the meeting with China’s Chairman (the title that Putin addresses him with) Xi Jinping that ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 13 September 2022
In early September 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin spelled out his intention to punish Europe for resisting Russia’s assault on the world order and supporting Ukraine louder and clearer than ever before. Speaking at the keynote session of an economic forum in Vladivostok, Russia, Putin asserted that the confrontation in ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 8 September 2022
The long-promised Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south has not yet delivered any breakthrough, but it still signifies a critical turning point for the war: Russia cannot hope to win by sticking to the pattern of trench warfare and artillery duels. Some “patriotic” commentators have suggested that the failures of Ukrainian ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 18 August 2022
As Russian aggression against Ukraine approaches the half-year mark and combat operations appear to be at a standstill, a new calculus has been developed in the Kremlin: A long war suits Moscow’s interests and can eventually be won. This self-serving proposition follows the failure of two previous war plans: a ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 11 August 2022
The meeting in Sochi, Russia, on August 5 between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was more than just another chapter in the long track record of bargaining and testing the limits of mutual patience between the two leaders. Putin’s war in Ukraine has badly damaged ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 21 July 2022
The Ukraine war has generated shockwaves far beyond the Donbas battlefields, and the Middle East has absorbed and returned the variegated impacts and, as a result, has attracted increased attention in recent weeks. Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to visit Tehran, Iran, on July 19, aiming to counter United ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 12 July 2022
Russia’s attack on Ukraine has clearly lost momentum, but the intensity of its multi-prong confrontation with the West keeps rising. Russian military command announced an “operational pause” in Donbas after the hard battles for Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, implicitly admitting that a regrouping of battalions, which have not been rotated in ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 28 June 2022
The post-Soviet transformation took Russia from a fledgling democracy to a corrupt autocracy, but, since the start of the war against Ukraine, the Kremlin has taken a new turn, which amounts to a resolute top-down effort at reversing what progress has been achieved in modernizing the state system, economy and ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 20 June 2022
The problem of humiliating Russia too deeply, by ensuring its defeat in the war against Ukraine, is more serious than just an unfortunate turn of phrase by French President Emmanuel Macron. Last Thursday, Macron traveled to Kyiv together with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and Romanian ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 14 June 2022
The full-scale re-invasion of Ukraine, ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 24, came as a shock for many groups within the Russian elite. They are still assessing the consequences of that autocratic decision and adapting to the fast-deteriorating political and economic environment. Meanwhile, Putin persists with rigidly confronting ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 10 June 2022
Modern wars are decided, according to Russian military strategy, in the high-intensity initial period, and the multi-pronged offensive into Ukraine was indeed launched with the aim of achieving a decisive success in the first couple of weeks. As the war crossed the symbolic 100-day watershed last weekend, nothing resembling a ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 23 May 2022
In the seemingly deadlocked, but in fact fast-evolving, war in Ukraine, two impactful events coincided last week, altering the course of battles and political stand-offs. The first one was the end of the heroic defense of Mariupol, as the last defenders of the Azovstal steel plant came out of their ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 16 May 2022
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has energized the North Atlantic Alliance in every possible way, reviving its purpose and unity, and granting it new attractiveness in Europe and greater prominence in the Indo-Pacific. The prospect of Finland and Sweden joining the 30 member-states was hypothetical last autumn, when Moscow issued the ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 9 May 2022
It stood to every political and strategic reason that President Vladimir Putin would announce a major decision opening the Victory Day military parade at the Red Square. Over the years, he has altered the meaning of this holiday from celebrating the allied triumph in the struggle against Nazi Germany to ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 2 May 2022
The deadlocked war has delivered Russia to an impossible situation where it can neither reckon with reality nor keep denying it. The official discourse on and the societal response to the unfolding disaster have so far contained a peculiar mix of patriotic mobilization and pretense that normal life continues undisturbed. ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 25 April 2022
Predictions of a decisive offensive in Donbass and speculations about peace talks have gained new intensity in both Russian propaganda and Western commentary last week – and neither makes much sense. Artillery and air strikes on the solid Ukrainian defense lines in several key directions on the battle for Donbass ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 19 April 2022
Triumphalist rhetoric coming out of Moscow notwithstanding, Russia’s war in Ukraine is not progressing according to plan (see EDM, April 11). Nevertheless, President Vladimir Putin repeated yet again last week (April 12) that the central objective of the massive re-invasion of Ukrainian territory starting on February 24 purportedly was always limited ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 12 April 2022
Russia has revised its war plan multiple times during the, so far, seven-week-long, ill-conceived large-scale invasion of Ukraine, yet it still remains incompatible with both tactical imperatives and political ambitions. The consecutive revisions themselves have been flawed in different ways: if the initial “Blitzkrieg” design was based on the assumption ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 5 April 2022
Combat operations on all key fronts of the Ukraine war continue non-stop, even if without decisive action, but the transit of Russian natural gas to Europe through the Ukrainian pipeline system continues without interruptions. This may appear aberrant given President Vladimir Putin’s well-documented propensity for “weaponizing” energy exports against European ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 30 March 2022
For at least the past 3 weeks of the 33-day-long war against Ukraine, it has been clear that the Russian offensive has lost momentum, with its key groupings of forces stuck in the suburbs of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv. The question that all concerned observers have been asking is what ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 29 March 2022
One striking feature of Russia’s fast-evolving war against Ukraine is the highly uneven dynamics of escalation in its different domains. The economic pressure on Russia has reached the level of extra-high intensity and keeps growing daily, for instance, as Halliburton and Schlumberger, two major oilfields servicing companies, announced the closure ... Read more »
The predictable and yet shockingly brutal Russian invasion into Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has in the course of three weeks sent many tremors across the world system. Major stock markets experience strong corrections, oil prices register new highs, importers of wheat and sunflower oil are nervously checking their stocks, ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 8 March 2022
The word “war” is presently banned in the official Russian discourse on Ukraine, but in fact the “special military operation” launched on President Vladimir Putin’s order early morning February 24, includes several wars fought in different domains. The massive invasion into Ukraine constitutes the most kinetic of them, but on ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 28 February 2022
Data on the concentration of Russian troops was solid; the diplomatic offensive executed by Moscow was deliberately disagreeable; yet, many experts (myself including) refused to accept the proposition on the coming war as “inevitable”. Denials streaming from the Kremlin were never convincing, but President Vladimir Putin’s reputation as a shrewd ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 25 February 2022
I, along with many other commentators, believed until the very end that war in Ukraine was preventable and would ultimately not take place. Very sadly, and concerningly, I was wrong. Why did I hold out hope so long for the avoidance of war? What does the invasion of Ukraine tell ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Sunday, 30 January 2022
The guns have so far remained silent on the snow-covered Russian-Ukrainian border, but there is certainly no peace there; a rather unusual war is in progress. It is unlike any other wars waged by Russia under the lengthy rule of President Vladimir Putin, who began his first presidential term with ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 11 October 2021
The decision of the Norwegian Nobel committee to award the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize to Dmitry Muratov (together with courageous Philippine journalist Maria Ressa) announced last Friday astonished, angered or elated everybody in Russia who has even a slight interest in politics or minimal exposure to media. Muratov himself was ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 3 June 2021
The UN Security Council is due to make a decision on a particular and particularly controversial issue pertaining to the humanitarian disaster in Syria by July 10, and Russia positions itself as the key part of the problem and a necessary contributor to a solution. The discord in the UN ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 20 May 2021
In a series of brief blog posts, researchers of the PRIO Middle East Centre offer their reflections on the unfolding Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. The proposition for cessation of violence in the suddenly exploded Israeli-Palestinian conflict appears so natural and necessary that the lack of any progress in its advancement after ten ... Read more »
With a winner finally announced in the US election, researchers at the PRIO Middle East Centre present a few thoughts on what a Biden presidency could mean for the Middle East. What are likely to be the guiding foreign policy principles of a Biden administration and how will regional and ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 1 October 2020
A full-blown war erupted in the South Caucasus last Sunday, September 27, and the two belligerents – Armenia and Azerbaijan – are proceeding with mobilizations under martial law, but no international authority tries in earnest to stop the hostilities. The conflict over Nagorno Karabakh ignited 30 years ago as the ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 23 September 2020
In today’s blog in PRIO’s series marking this year’s Peer Review Week, Pavel K. Baev reflects on his own experiences reviewing and being reviewed and the challenges posed by unclear expectations on reviewers. He suggests that a partial solution may lie in a clearer delineation between different types of review. ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 16 April 2020
This piece is part of our blog series Beyond the COVID Curve. COVID-19 has quickly changed everything from our daily routines, to the policies of governments, to the fortunes of the global economy. How will it continue to shape society and the conditions for peace and conflict globally in the near ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 3 March 2020
PRIO Director Henrik Urdal included Russian NGOs standing against the rise of autocracy, and personally Alexei Navalny, in his short-list of candidates for the 2020 Nobel Peace Prize. Last week, Russian opposition remembered Boris Nemtsov, murdered five years ago, by a march in downtown Moscow, which gathered some 25.000 people. ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 7 May 2019
Military force remains the instrument of choice in Russian policy-making, yet the expenditures on its building keeps going down. This paradoxical picture comes out of the recent estimate by our sister-institution Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which is eagerly picked up by the Russian media. SIPRI methodology is long-established ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 11 February 2019
Russia has positioned itself as the main supporter of Nicholas Maduro regime in Venezuela, taking the risk of turning a crisis in a far-away country into an embarrassing political defeat. Official propaganda has amplified this issue, so that 57 percent of respondents in a recent poll confirmed that they were ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 29 October 2018
Dan Smith, Director of SIPRI, has published a very informative and thoughtful blog on the apparently imminent breakdown of the INF Treaty. Following up with a week-old second thoughts, I can share this article (adapted from the Order from Chaos, published by the Brookings). The discussion of the pending U.S. ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 24 September 2018
The destruction of an Il-20M radio-electronic surveillance aircraft with 15 crew members in the late evening of September 17 was not the worst tragedy in the records of the three years long Russian military intervention in Syria but it is perhaps the most difficult one to explain away. It was ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 20 June 2018
The start of the 2018 World Cup had everything millions of fans in Russia could wish for: Perfectly prepared stadiums, beautiful and short opening ceremony, and spectacular performance of the national team. The country has indeed come together and rejoiced in welcoming the greatest sport event, which will be watched with ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 2 March 2018
The annual presidential address to the parliament is usually a rather dull affair in Russia, but President Putin has certainly managed to make an impression with the speech delivered on March 1, 2018. He elaborated at great length about Russia’s military might, but before describing new weapon systems (some of ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 23 January 2018
The civil war in Syria will soon enter into the seventh year, with around 400,000 people dead and over 12 million displaced. Although the so-called Islamic State has been militarily defeated in Raqqa, no one party is in control of the country—and there is hardly much hope that the tragedy ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 2 March 2017
Five years ago, Boris Nemtsov, one of the leaders of Russian liberal opposition, visited Oslo and made his cause for several audiences, who now remember his passion and joy. There is indeed much to reflect upon in this recent Russian history – and in its older pages as well. One ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 15 February 2017
The annual Munich Security Conference will take place later this week (February 17–19) with many prominent speakers, including Dan Smith, former PRIO director and presently SIPRI Director. It was ten years ago at this forum that President Vladimir Putin delivered a famous speech detailing Russia’s deep dissatisfaction with the world ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 11 November 2016
The resonance of this U.S. election campaign is truly enormous, in every corner of the world. But despite much disgust about the mudslinging, it is not necessarily all that negative. Observers everywhere may be astounded that a candidate so arrogantly ignorant in international affairs could gather so much support, but ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 10 October 2016
The crisis in relations with Russia, and in particular Russia’s behavior in the Syrian war, has become an unusually prominent theme in the U.S. election campaign. That means that a new administration could start with a set of tough pledges, rather than with a clean slate. Campaign trail rhetoric is ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 13 September 2016
The agreement on managing the Syrian civil war, reached between the United States and Russia in Geneva in the early hours of Saturday, September 10, was both surprising and pre-determined. US Secretary of State John Kerry had invested so much effort in the endless rounds of marathon talks with Russian ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 2 September 2016
Vladivostok, which had an expensive facelift for the 2012 APEC summit, will this week host the Eastern Economic Forum, and President Vladimir Putin is due to preside over the proceedings. His goal is to reassert Russia’s commitment to playing a major role in Asia-Pacific geopolitics and to reinvigorate business ties ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 30 June 2016
Expectations regarding President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing on Saturday (June 25) had been rather subdued, and the modest results were mostly immaterial. Last year, the two leaders grandiosely celebrated their countries’ World War II victory over the Axis powers; and in 2014, they announced a great increase in economic ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 6 June 2016
With the NATO summit in Warsaw coming up in July, the rhetoric in many Western quarters is becoming shriller about the need to contain Russian aggression. There are good reasons for concern about Russia’s intentions and capabilities, as elaborated at the recent Lennart Meri conference in Tallinn. But in the last ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 22 April 2016
With the explosion of the Ukraine crisis in spring 2014, Russia made a determined effort to upgrade its strategic partnership with China and achieved instant success. Large-scale economic contracts were signed in a matter of a few months, and the military parades in Moscow and Beijing in respectively May and ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 25 February 2016
Just a couple of weeks ago, Aleppo was seen as a crucial battlefield in the Syrian civil war and was compared with Sarajevo as a tragedy of intolerable proportions not only by hard-hitting journalists but also by such responsible politicians as Michael Fallon, UK Defence Secretary. Yet presently, this devastated ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 8 January 2016
At a time when most Russians were taking a long break from politics until after the Orthodox Christmas on January 7, there has been no respite in Russia’s air operations in Syria, nor in the quarrel with Turkey. Rather than focus on the bread-and-butter issues of making ends meet, Russian ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 5 January 2016
President Vladimir Putin concluded 2015 with the approval of a revised National Security Strategy, which defines the strengthening of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a threat and commits to countering it by securing the unity of Russian society and by building up the country’s defense capabilities. In the ... Read more »
De-escalation of the crisis between Russia and Turkey, caused by the first ever air fight between them resulting in a destruction of a Russian Su-24, has suddenly become the hottest issue in global affairs. What has been overshadowed by this clash of military missions and political ambitions is the strengthening ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 5 November 2015
The Russian military intervention in Syria—launched in a great rush just over a month ago — came as a surprise; perhaps not as shocking as the swift occupation and annexation of Crimea, but a surprise nevertheless. But does Russia’s ability to surprise and to project force in Syria prove, as ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Saturday, 10 October 2015
For observers who are confined by the boundaries of conventional strategic sense, every day of Russia’s military intervention in Syria brings fresh surprises. Indiscriminate strikes against Turkey-backed and CIA-trained opposition groups (which could not possibly be mistaken for ISIS) were followed by deliberate violations of Turkey’s airspace, and then by ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 1 October 2015
Russian military intervention in the Syrian civil war appeared to gain momentum every day over the past month, up until President Vladimir Putin’s address to the UN General Assembly on September 28th. The intention behind moving troops and equipment to Syria, while denying these deployments, was quite possibly to build ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 21 September 2015
Russia’s apparent escalation in Syria is less dramatic than it seems, but it still represents another depressing development in the ongoing nightmare of the Syrian civil war. While it appears no Russian troops are engaged in fighting, the volume of military cargo delivered from Russia to Syria by sea and ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 1 September 2015
The bilateral meeting in Beijing will be demonstratively cordial but loaded with mutual disappointment. Putin cannot fail to see that his hopes for harvesting rich dividends from closer Russian ties with China have failed to materialize and delivered him to a position of one-sided dependency. Xi, meanwhile, has few doubts ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 11 August 2015
Seven years ago, Russia launched its week-long war with Georgia. And what seemed then a victory can now be recognized as one of the worst August disasters in Russian history. On the one hand, it is true that the war generated a moment of national unity, which was deeply false ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 4 August 2015
Exactly 40 years ago, the Soviet Union signed the Helsinki Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), accepting commitments to respect the norms of international behavior and to observe the standards of human rights. The Kremlin had, in fact, no intention to relax domestic pressure ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 28 July 2015
Putin has always preferred to postpone decisions until the last possible moment and to keep his lieutenants and international counterparts in the dark about his intentions. This summer, however, he is arguably wasting time and maneuvering himself into a corner, from which the only escape will be jumping into another ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 22 July 2015
The United States needed Russian support to conclude the Iranian nuclear deal. As U.S. President Barack Obama acknowledged, “we would have not achieved this agreement had it not been for Russia’s willingness to stick with us.” But with U.S.-Russian relations at their lowest point since the end of the Cold ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 21 July 2015
It was a year ago last Friday (July 17) that the Boeing 777 Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, was shot down by a missile over eastern Ukraine, resulting in a loss of 298 lives. The shock of that tragedy awakened Europe and the wider global ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 17 July 2015
“Russia has been rather ambivalent about striking the deal, not because it is worried about the Iranian nuclear program, but because it is worried about the Iranian oil,” said Pavel K. Baev, a researcher at the Peace Research Institute in Oslo. Mr. Baev noted that at several crucial points in ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 15 July 2015
It was a rare coincidence in world politics that two pivotal and protracted negotiation processes—the European Union’s talks with Greece on managing its debt, and the “P5+1” talks on managing the Iranian nuclear program—both culminated in crucial agreements at the start of this week (July 13–14). Russia was a party ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 10 July 2015
The striking outcome of this Sunday’s Greek referendum is that the collective attitude departed so decisively from common sense. The question on the ballot was convoluted, but the voters were well-informed about the EU’s demands. Having spent a week lining up at ATMs, Greeks grasped the reality of the coming ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 16 June 2015
The pattern of brinksmanship, in which air incidents in the Baltic theater interplay with tank and artillery engagements in the Donbas war zone, is so obviously detrimental to Russia’s interests that a determined effort at breaking it appears inevitable. Western leaders focus on measures for containing Russia, expecting that the ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 9 June 2015
The swiftly terminated rebel attack on Maryinka was probably meant to be Putin’s “warning shot” to the Western leaders. But he only succeeded in reminding them about the near certainty (rather than risk) of a summer spasm in the “hybrid war.” While the Russian battalions concentrated in the war zone ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 2 June 2015
These attempts at curtailing the flow of information and persecuting the disseminators of politically undesirable news (including bloggers) might appear old-fashioned and inspired by Soviet-era KGB practices, which are held dear by Putin and his henchmen. They are, nevertheless, more effective than the spread of Internet-based social networks would suggest—and ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 12 May 2015
The extraordinary pomp around the celebration of the V-Day made it possible for Putin to sustain the momentum of mobilization created by last year’s Crimean anschluss. Now that the fanfare and fireworks have fallen silent, this momentum may dissipate—and Putin, who has made himself into the central figure in militarized ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 5 May 2015
The focal point for the “patriotic” propaganda for the last several months has been the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory in the Great Patriotic War (as World War II is known in Russia), which is now just a few days away. Reflections on the horrible ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 21 April 2015
“Boring” is perhaps the prevalent impression of President Vladimir Putin’s televised four-hour-long Q & A session that aired last Thursday (April 16), which was meant to demonstrate his good health and relaxed attitude to the great many problems worrying his loyal subjects…. […] Typically, such commentary by high officials is ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 8 April 2015
The words that Russian President Vladimir Putin chose for describing the nuclear angle of the special operation for seizing and annexing Crimea in March 2014, might appear so odd that it is well-nigh impossible to make sense of them. “Yes, we were ready,” he said to the question about whether ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 7 April 2015
While Iran appears to be recognizing the need to reform its domestic politics and change its attitude toward the West, Russia is turning into a massively corrupt police state and is apparently thriving in the atmosphere of confrontation. The contrast between these two regimes has become strikingly sharp as nuclear ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 24 March 2015
While Putin may believe in his own infallibility, his courtiers have to persist in reassuring him about the fragility of Western unity. Just another push and a couple more bribes, they argue, will convince some North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members that Narva or Spitsbergen are not worth fighting for, ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 17 March 2015
Since the Ukraine crisis exploded a year ago, Putin’s system of power has rigidified into a uni-centric combination of a police state, kleptocracy and “propagandocracy” (if such a word could be invented), in which no transition of authority can be planned or envisaged. His recent poorly camouflaged and worse explained ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 10 March 2015
It took a week for the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) to produce a pair of plausible suspects in the shocking murder of Boris Nemtsov on February 28. Last Saturday (March 7), FSB Director Aleksandr Bortnikov reported to President Vladimir Putin that two men implicated in the crime were under ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 6 March 2015
As days go by, the pain and shock from the news about Boris Nemtsov murder are turning into sad reflections on Russia’s predicament, and my bottom line goes as following: Nemtsov was a voice in the wilderness of Russian propaganda and self-deception. And his murder has cut away multiple layers of ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 25 February 2015
It is entirely correct to say that the “Minsk Two” agreement, reached on February 12, after painstakingly long talks between the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany, was broken inside the first week of implementation. Yet, as the battle for Debaltseve has drawn to its predictable end, the opposing ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 18 February 2015
Russia connects with Turkey seeking opportunities in the Middle East. Violent conflicts in the Middle East gained new momentum in 2014, and the forceful multilateral efforts to contain them yielded far from satisfactory results. Both Russia and Turkey have remained aloof from these efforts, and often oppose US-led endeavors but ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 11 February 2015
President Vladimir Putin loves to play the “divide-and-deceive” game, imagining that every split between the United States and Europe or inside the European Union is an opportunity to corrupt Western policies, opinions, and values. It was high time to turn this game against him, and last week he indeed found ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 10 February 2015
The week of February 2 registered an explosion in political intrigue around the war in eastern Ukraine, and some sort of pause in hostilities is likely to ensue. Undoubtedly, this is a positive development, but it would be an overstatement to describe the late-night talks in the Kremlin between President ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 3 February 2015
Russia has achieved much success last week in its rush toward self-isolation, and perhaps the most demonstrative step was made in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE). Sergei Naryshkin, the Chairman of the State Duma, came to Strasbourg as the head of the Russian delegation expecting to ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 28 January 2015
The sharp escalation of hostilities in eastern Ukraine last week (January 22) has disheartened many in Europe who had hoped for a gradual resolution of the Ukraine conflict. On the other hand, it has been a welcome return to the path of victory for many in Russia who consume or ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 13 January 2015
Despite the apparent deadlock in armed clashes in eastern Ukraine, an idea to bringing together the presidents of Russia and Ukraine, together with their peers from Belarus and Kazakhstan as well as the leaders of France and Germany, gained momentum at the end of last week. Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 6 January 2015
The post–New Year holidays in Russia have brought less joy or happy expectations than usual to the country’s elites, the urban middle classes and even to Russia’s millions of labor migrants. Over the past 15 years, all these groups shared in the country’s prosperity, which had grown steadily since President ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 25 November 2014
Last weekend (November 21), Ukraine marked the first anniversary of the EuroMaidan—the public protests in Kyiv that lasted through the hard winter of discontent and brought down the corrupt regime of Viktor Yanukovych on February 21. As its war for state survival continues to rage, the country is in no ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 12 November 2014
In a case of striking symbolism, President Vladimir Putin traveled to Beijing on the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, as if seeking reassurance against the specter of a mass public uprising. The dismantling of that icon of the Cold War signified a breakthrough in finally achieving ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 7 October 2014
In the past-but-still-present Soviet times, leading newspaper proudly carried a set of awards – like the Order of the Red Star – on their front pages. I can just imagine the fiercely independent Novaya gazeta sporting the Nobel medal on its banner (just above the usual political cartoon) – as ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 7 October 2014
The trickle of sad and sour economic news continues to exacerbate Russia’s stagnant economic outlook, but the Kremlin authorities remain resolutely indifferent to these negative trends. They presume that the arrival of a “technical” recession does not constitute a political challenge because the “below-middle” classes have rallied around the flag ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 30 September 2014
Big guns have mostly remained silent in eastern Ukraine last week, but diplomatic battles at the United Nations General Assembly have not shown any recess. Russia used to be able to score some easy points at this seasonal show by denouncing the United States’ unilateralism and hegemonic arrogance. This time ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 16 September 2014
The tragic battles around Donetsk and Luhansk (collectively known as the Donbas region) have taken a pause, and as civilians try to rebuild a semblance of normal life, leaders are figuring out how to now move forward. In his first 100 days, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has shown the ability ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 4 September 2014
Just 75 years ago, the devastating war arrived to Europe – and this brave Polish cavalry perished fighting tanks. These days tanks are again rolling – and Europe needs to find a way to stop them. The summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) that opens in the Welsh ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 12 August 2014
With the arrival of August, political expectations in Russia, informed by the long experience of setbacks and disasters, are turning negative. Second thoughts about the “victorious” war with Georgia that erupted six years ago blend with reflections on the centennial anniversary of World War I (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, August 6). At ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 5 August 2014
Bad news hit the Kremlin thick and fast last week, but on Friday evening (August 1), President Vladimir Putin answered a phone call from US President Barack Obama, who again stressed that the Kremlin’s mounting problems can be resolved diplomatically (whitehouse.gov, August 1). Putin’s personal responsibility for the war in ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 29 July 2014
If President Vladimir Putin really thought that the destruction of Flight MH17 with 298 people on board would soon blow over, the White House statement from last Friday must have disillusioned him—assuming his subordinates actually informed him about it. The White House statement directly noted: “we have concluded that Vladimir ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 15 July 2014
The upcoming BRICS (a loose political-economic grouping of the large emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit, scheduled to take place in Fortaleza, Brazil, on July 15–17, provided an occasion for President Vladimir Putin to make a lengthy tour around Latin America, starting from Cuba last ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 8 July 2014
The most dramatic turn in the protracted Ukrainian calamity last week was the decision of President Petro Poroshenko to end the ceasefire and resume the offensive against separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Poroshenko had every reason to conclude that the cessation of combat operations plays into rebel hands, ... Read more »
Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 1 July 2014
The big picture of the Ukrainian conflict has changed significantly during the last week as this troubled state confirmed its hard-made European choice. The hundreds of rebels fighting in the trenches around Slavyansk and the hundreds of thousands of civilians, who are trying to make sense out of the violent ... Read more »