Monday, June 19th:
8:30- 9:30 am: Continental Breakfast at Hotel
9:30-10:00 am: Opening Session
Welcome: Håvard Hegre, PRIO
Petter Wille, Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Opening Remarks: Ibrahim Elbadawi, World Bank
10:00 – 12:30 pm: First Session: Types and Aspects of Conflict
Chair: Gjermund Saether
Håvard Hegre and Clionadh Raleigh: 'Population Size, Concentration, and Civil War. A
Geographically Disaggregated Analysis'.
Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler: ‘Grand Extortion: Coup Risk and the Military as a
Protection Racket’
Phillip Killicoat: ‘Cheap guns, more war? The economics of small arms’
Discussants: Nic Marsh, Eva Busza
12:30 – 1:30 pm: Lunch
1:30 – 3:00 pm: Second Session: Fragile States
Chair: Anke Hoeffler
Clionadh Raleigh: ‘Neighbouring States, Conflict & Instability’
Aderoju Oyefusi: ‘Propensity to Civil Disobedience and the Probability of an Armed
Struggle in Niger Delta Region of Nigeria’
Lars-Erik Cederman & Luc Girardin: 'Beyond Fractionalization: Mapping Ethnicity onto
Nationalist Insurgencies'
Discussants: Marta Reynal-Querol, Indra de Soysa
3:00 – 3:30 pm: Tea/Coffee
3:30 – 5:00 pm: Third Session: The Delicate After Peace
Chair: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
Ibrahim Elbadawi and Cristina Bodea: ‘Manifestations of Violence: Civil Wars, Coups
and Others’
Tove Grete Lie, Helga Malmin Binningsboe and Scott Gates: 'Post-Conflict Justice and
Sustainable Peace'
Discussants: Håvard Hegre, Laura Bailey
6:00 pm: Dinner cruise on the Oslo Fjord hosted by Norwegian Ministry of Foreign
Affairs. (Warm, casual clothing suggested).
2
Tuesday, June 20th:
9:00 – 10:30 am: Fourth Session: Politics, Governance and Service Delivery
Chair: Håvard Hegre
Phil Keefer: ‘Insurgency and Credible Commitment in Autocracies and Democracies’
Colin Jennings: ‘Game theory of post-conflict identity politics’
Scott Gates and Kaare Strøm: 'Moral Hazard, Adverse Selection and Power-Sharing'
Discussants: Karl-Ove Moene, Gary Milante
10:30 – 11:00 am: Tea/Coffee
11:00 – 12:30 pm: Fifth Session: Risks and Coping Mechanisms
Chair: Scott Gates
Paul Collier, Anke Hoeffler and Mans Soderbom: ‘Post-Conflict Risks’
Luka Biong Deng: ‘Are Non-poor Households always Less Vulnerable? The Case of
Households exposed to Protracted Civil War in Southern Sudan’
Richard Akresh and Philip Verwimp: ‘Rwandan Crop Failure and Rural Coping
Mechanisms’
Discussants: Phil Keefer, Ian Bannon
12:30 – 1:30 pm: Lunch
1:30 – 3:00 pm: Sixth Session: Macroeconomics of Post-Conflict
Chair: Jaime de Melo
Victor Davies: ‘Post-conflict Capital Flight and Return’
Ibrahim Elbadawi, Linda Kaltani & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel: ‘Post-Conflict Aid, Real
Exchange Rate Adjustment and Catch-up Growth’
Discussants: Paul Collier, Majak d’Agoot
3:00 – 3:30 pm: Tea/Coffee
3:30 – 6:00 pm: Plenary Session: From Results to Policy
Introduction by Chair: TBA (10 minutes)
Mattner & Milante: Presentation (30 minutes)
- An Introduction to the Post-Conflict Policy Process
- Targeting Research to Inform the Process
- A Preliminary Outline of the Project Policy Paper
Discussants: (5-10 minutes each) (60 minutes)
Ian Bannon, World Bank (CPRU)
Laura Bailey, World Bank (LICUS)
Paul Collier, University of Oxford
Majak d'Agoot, Government of National Unity, Sudan
Ibrahim Elbadawi, World Bank (DEC-RG)
Scott Gates, PRIO
Eva Busza, UNDP
Open Discussions: (40 Minutes)
Concluding Remarks by the Chairman: (10 minutes)